Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 kaly 210849 afdaly Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Albany New York 349 am EST Wed Nov 21 2018 Synopsis... an Arctic frontal boundary will move through the area today, with some snow showers, squalls and gusty winds. Behind the front, bitter cold temperatures will move in for Thanksgiving and Friday. Temperatures will slowly moderate over the weekend with the potential for light rain and a wintry mix. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... strong northern stream upper energy approaches from Canada and there is a good consensus that the best low level convergence along the boundary layer thermal gradient and moisture gradient tracks more through northern New York and northern New England. This suggests the most solid and organized snow squall activity would be in those areas. There is a good consensus in sources of guidance that even if terrain breaks up any solid line of snow squalls in NY, steep low level lapse rates and some weak cape in the low levels would also support the snow squall activity across other parts of the region as well. So, temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s ahead of the front in eastern and southern New York but only 20s to lower 30s west and north. Temperatures will drop sharply when the snow showers/squalls begin and then after the passage, temperatures drop more and winds shift to a very gusty northwest. There will be some dustings to under an inch in the snow showers/squalls but visibilities will likely be reduced below 1/2 mile in the squalls, maybe near zero briefly. && Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/... winds shift to northwest and north tonight and Thursday, which suggests any lake effect snow bands will transition rapidly to multi bands aimed at areas near and west of the western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie valley and eastern Catskills. It will be extremely cold for November with lows tonight -5 to +15 with wind chills zero to 25 below zero. Wind chill advisories have been issued for the southern Adirondacks. Eastern Catskills, southern Green Mountains and the Berkshires from 1 am to noon Thursday. Gusty north to northwest winds and a sunny sky are expected Thanksgiving but highs only in the upper single digits to lower 20s. Winds ease Thursday night as high pressure centers itself over our region. Lows in the 5 below zero to 10 above zero range. Low level and upper ridging slowly shifts east of our region Friday but such a cold start to the day, light winds and slowly rising boundary layer temperatures will limit the warming Friday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper teens to upper 20s. Dry conditions will continue through Friday night and it will not be as cold as Thursday night with lows in the teens to lower 20s. && Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... weather will remain quite turbulent through the long term with a northern stream trough in place over the northeast. High pressure lifts off to the northeast as an upper level shortwave approaches the region Saturday afternoon. The main low feature associated with the upper level wave is located north of the Great Lakes, but there appears to be plenty of forcing associated with the upper wave to produce steady precipitation across the region. In fact, mixed wintry precip is anticipated at the onset as the column saturates. There is some disparities with the timing of the precip and this will determine precip type (ptype). For now, used a blend of GFS/European model (ecmwf) models for pops and ptype. The wintry mix may transition over to rain in lower elevations, with a mix of rain-snow in the higher elevations Saturday night into Sunday. This wave then lifts off to the northeast, providing a brief reprieve from precipitation Sunday night into Monday. A low pressure system quickly approaches and moves through the region Monday into Monday night, with an additional upper wave right on its heels. These two features continue the turbulent weather pattern with chances for mixed wintry precip into mid-week. Ptype will be difficult to determine given the large variance in thermal profiles. So have stuck with a blend of model solutions at this time. There is potential for some river points to reach at least action stage depending on how much rainfall (versus snow) there will be, so this will have to be monitored. && Aviation /09z Wednesday through Sunday/... conditions should generally remain VFR (or borderline mvfr) through about 12z today as a weak frontal boundary passes through. A few flurries cannot be ruled out during this time. However, the primary impacts will be during the afternoon and evening hours as a strong Arctic front passes through the region. Snow showers/squalls are expected to accompany its passage which may impact kalb-kpsf-kgfl. Kpou may be too far south hence no mention in the taf at this time. Westerly winds will increase with occasional gusts up to 30 kts from mid morning and especially in the afternoon. Cloud cover should decrease behind the front, with VFR conditions returning towards the end of the taf forecast period. Outlook... Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 30.0 slight chance of shsn. Thanksgiving day: low operational impact. Breezy no sig weather. Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather. Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn. Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely rain. Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain. && Fire weather... an Arctic frontal boundary will move through the area today, with some snow showers, squalls and gusty winds. Behind the front, bitter cold temperatures will move in for Thanksgiving and Friday. Temperatures will slowly moderate over the weekend with the potential for light rain and a wintry mix. && Hydrology... river flows will continue to lower into next week with colder than normal temperatures continuing, and mainly light precipitation events. No widespread Hydro problems are anticipated. Scattered snow showers and squalls are expected along a cold front Wednesday. Colder than normal temperatures persist into the Thanksgiving Holiday with flows continuing to recede. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website. && Climate... the record low Max temperature for Albany for Thanksgiving day is 19 degrees, set on Thanksgiving day (november 28th) 1901. The record low minimum for Thanksgiving for Albany is 5 degrees (november 23rd) 1972. Albany's record low Max for November 22nd is 25 degrees set in 1880. The low daily mean temperature is 18.5 degrees also set in 1880. The record min temperature for November 22nd is 9 degrees set in 1969. Daily records for Albany are from 1874 to 2017. && Aly watches/warnings/advisories... CT...none. New York...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 am to noon EST Thursday for nyz032- 033-042-047-051-058-063-082. Massachusetts...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 am to noon EST Thursday for maz001- 025. Vermont...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 am to noon EST Thursday for vtz013- 014. && $$ Synopsis...11/NAS near term...11/NAS short term...11/NAS long term...jlv

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