Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 kaly 262330 afdaly Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Albany New York 730 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will slide across and east of the region on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will approach late Thursday into Friday with clouds and the increasing probability of showers. Temperatures will moderate through the middle of the week. && Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 730 PM EDT, winds remain somewhat brisk/gusty, especially within the Mohawk Valley, capital region and Berkshires, where some gusts have been reaching 20-25 mph. These winds should diminish rather quickly over the next 1-2 hours as strong decoupling begins. With current dewpoints in the single digits above and slightly below zero, and the prospects for winds trending to calm, along with the clear skies, see no reason why temps across the SW Adirondacks won't drop well down into the single digits, if not colder, so have lowered forecast mins in these areas accordingly, and lowered them 2-4 degrees elsewhere given such a dry air mass in place with skies remaining mostly clear. So, single digits for the SW Adirondacks, and teens to lower 20s most other areas. Large high pressure area across the Great Lakes, 1032mb, will continue to slide eastward through the daylight hours Wednesday. This will keep skies mainly clear with lighter winds. The main challenge will be afternoon dewpoints as MOS remains a bit elevated and not accounting for the mixing which we will continue to lower Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, highs Wednesday under moderating thermal columns by several degrees to bring near 50f for valley locations and mostly 40s elsewhere. && Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/... Wednesday night, high pressure slides off the Atlantic Seaboard as return flow begins to evolve through the overnight period. While it will continue to moderate aloft, boundary layer will remain cool overnight as we will favor a consensus approach with mainly 20s for overnight lows. Some high and mid clouds may approach the portions of the western dacks overnight ahead of frontal boundary that is forecast to slide across the central Great Lakes. Thursday, that upstream front begins it approach as best upper support and cyclogenesis tracks across James and Hudson bay's. Clouds will likely thicken across the area from west to east so the sunshine will become more filtered and the threat for showers increase to the north and west of Albany. The GFS remains the most aggressive with the NAM/European model (ecmwf) the slowest with the ggem somewhat inbetween. The main issue with this will be strength of the ridge axis and orientation downstream of the local area. For now, we will gradually increase pops from northwest to southeast as most areas climb well into the 40s and 50s. Thursday night into Friday...the frontal zone slows its forward progress significantly as upper flow becomes zonal east of The Rockies. This quasi-stationary nature of the front will become problematic as models generally have a difficult time with not only placement but overall quantitative precipitation forecast. A subtle wave along the boundary may result in higher quantitative precipitation forecast like the GFS or much lower amounts like the NAM. Regardless, we will keep pops in the chance-scattered values and perhaps a little snow across the dacks if the frontal position is little further south Thursday night. Overnight lows ranges from the mid 30s to mid 40s and highs Friday into the 40s across the dacks to near 60f for Mid-Hudson valley. && Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... models continue to suggest amplification of the pattern this upcoming weekend, with greatest uncertainty regarding the speed of a strengthening shortwave and attendant cold front crossing the region. The latest 12z/26 GFS and most gefs members suggest a quicker passage of both features, with best chance for precipitation from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with rain for valleys, and rain possibly ending as snow across higher elevations. The 12z/26 European model (ecmwf) continues to suggest greater amplification of the upper level feature, resulting in slower progression through the region, and inferring most precipitation occurs later Saturday night into much of Sunday. It also would suggest falling temperatures on Sunday, allowing for most higher elevations to have a changeover to snow before precipitation ends, with light to moderate accumulations possible, while even valley areas from Albany north and west could have a changeover to snow before precipitation ends Sunday afternoon. At this time, have used a blended approach, slightly favoring the ec timing. So, remnant surface front Friday night should lift back northward as a warm front during Saturday, bringing showers, especially areas along and north of I-90. Showers may become more isolated/scattered Saturday afternoon, especially central and southern areas. Depending on cloud cover and shower coverage, Max temps in valleys could reach into the mid 60s to lower 70s, with higher terrain areas mainly in the 50s. A quicker frontal passage would result in cooler Max temps. For Saturday night into Sunday, have indicated chance to likely pops, greatest late Saturday night into early Sunday afternoon (tapering from west to e). Temps could remain quite mild east of the incoming frontal system Saturday night, with 40s or 50s expected most of the night (if not milder in some areas), while dropping into the 30s immediately behind the front. On Sunday, depending on the speed of the front and timing of when precipitation ends, Max temps will likely occur early in the day for areas near and east of the Hudson River (40s and 50s), and 30s across western areas, with falling temps into the 30s to lower 40s most areas behind the front. If the front moves through quicker and some breaks in the clouds develop late Sunday afternoon, there could be some minor temperature recovery in valley areas late in the day. Fair and chilly conditions are expected Monday, with highs in the 40s for valleys, 30s across higher terrain areas and lows mainly in the 20s. By Tuesday, strengthening mid/upper level height rises should allow for milder temperatures reaching into the 50s for valleys, 40s across higher elevations, with a mix of sun and clouds. Will have to watch a southern stream storm system, which most models currently suggest tracking off the southeast coast late Tuesday. Should it track closer to the region, thicker clouds and some precipitation could reach the region by later Tuesday. && Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/... VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail through the 24 hour taf period ending 00z Thursday, as a very dry air mass remains in place and high pressure in control. Winds will be north-northwest around 10 kt with occasional gusts around 15 kt through around 02z/Wed, decreasing to 5 kt or less later tonight. Winds Wednesday morning will be variable around 5 kt or less, trending into the south to southwest at 5-10 knots in the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Thursday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig weather. Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers. Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. && Fire weather... minimum relative humidity values mainly in the teens and 20s this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday night. Our next chances for any showers will come Thursday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches and moves into the area. && Hydrology... minimal hydrological issues are expected at this time. Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday night. Our next chances for showers come Thursday afternoon and night with only light precipitation expected. Below normal temperatures tonight then they moderate with above normal readings Thursday and likely extending into the weekend. The diurnal melting of the remaining snowpack will occur. Latest mmefs suggests hopn6 may climb toward flood stage as snowmelt of a couple inches is possible, along with adding some quantitative precipitation forecast from showers. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website. && Aly watches/warnings/advisories... CT...none. New York...none. Massachusetts...none. Vermont...none. && $$ Synopsis...bgm near term...kl/bgm short term...bgm

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