Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 kaly 202001 afdaly Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Albany New York 401 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Synopsis... a couple of waves moving along a cold front will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area through Wednesday morning. There is the potential for heavy rain and a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. Rain should end Friday morning as high pressure builds into the northeast from the Great Lakes. The weekend looks pleasant, with sunny, dry and breezy conditions forecast. && Near term /through Friday/... as of 401 PM...first in a series of low pressure waves moving along a cold front is now near Burlington, Vermont. A cold front trails southwest to about Binghamton, NY, with a stationary/warm front extending westward to the next low pressure wave which is near Toledo, Ohio. The first wave produced 1-3 inches of rain across the northwest part of our forecast area today. There are some showers and thunderstorms along the cold front to our west which will move through the area this evening. Laps analysis shows 800-1000j/kg of cape up the Hudson Valley. 0-6km bulk shear is on the order of 40kts. Some breaks of sunshine have also developed. All favorable for some severe cells to develop along the cold front. However, water vapor loop shows weak ridging developing between the two surface waves which seems to be capping development of storms along the initial cold front. Expecting two periods of rain over next 12-18 hours. The first will be showers associated with the cold front, and then another round of showers as the second surface wave moves across the area later tonight and tomorrow morning. Less chance of thunderstorms at that time due to normal overnight cooling and stabilization, but with juicy airmass in place, still a chance for heavy downpour or two. Later Friday, clearing should begin as a drier northwesterly flow takes hold. Lows tonight in the 50s hill towns to 60s valleys and highs on Friday in the 60s hills to 70s valleys. && Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/... high pressure will build into the region through the short term period leading to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions on Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonable in the mid-to-upper 70s in valley regions and upper 60s over the higher terrain. Dew points will be in the 50s so it will be a nice reprieve from the humid conditions. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the northwest with gusts up to 25 miles per hour. With drier, northerly flow, nights will be cooler with lows Friday and Saturday night mainly in 50s with 40s in the hills and cooler locations. && Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... high pressure nosing in from Canada will provide mostly clear skies, warm temperatures, and low humidity for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be within a degree or two of normal. An upper level trough dropping into the western Great Lakes will push a more humid air mass across our area for Tuesday with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing. This warm, moist air mass will remain across the region through the remainder of the period. Thus we would expect chances of showers and thunderstorms most days, generally diurnally driven. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal, lower 80s valleys and 70s higher elevations. While any thunderstorm could produce a brief downpour, signals are weak for any widespread heavy rainfall. && Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/... there is expected to be enough instability building this afternoon for a broken line of thunderstorms with heavy downpours. Confidence continue high enough to mention tempo for +tsra and associated IFR conditions from late afternoon into early evening at all terminals. Persistent clouds (mainly in MVFR range) and scattered showers will persist through much of the night. Winds this afternoon will be south-southeast at 10-20 kt. Winds will shift to the northwest this evening and remain around 7-12 kt overnight. On Friday, winds will be northwest at 10 to 20 kt. Outlook... Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather. Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather. Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra. && Fire weather... a couple of waves moving along a cold front will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area through Wednesday morning. There is the potential for heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. Rain should end Friday morning as high pressure builds into the northeast from the Great Lakes. The weekend looks pleasant, with sunny, dry and breezy conditions forecast. Winds will be gusty on Friday from the northwest at 20-30 mph and gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected on Saturday afternoon. Maximum relative humidity tonight will be between 90 and 100 percent. Minimum relative humidity on Friday will be between 40 and 60 percent. Maximum relative humidity early Saturday morning will be 70-90 percent. && Hydrology... rainfall through 3 PM today has been mainly confined to the northwest part of the forecast area, where a widespread one inch of rain has fallen with some areas of over 2 inches. Some minor lowland and street flooding has been reported. Additional rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is possible from now through tomorrow morning across the Albany forecast area as a cold front moves through. Localized higher amounts are possible from thunderstorms. From later Wednesday through Sunday, fair and dry weather is expected which will allow streams and any standing water to recede.The next chance of rain looks to be Monday night into Tuesday when a warm front may bring some showers and thunderstorms. Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ web Page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && Aly watches/warnings/advisories... CT...none. New York...none. Massachusetts...none. Vermont...none. && $$ Synopsis...sand near term...sand short term...sand

Return to Current Conditions

Features

Weather Apps

WunderRadio

Weather Underground Apps
Check out our wide variety of mobile and setup applications.

Weather Underground Applications

Top of Page

© Copyright 2019
The Weather Company, LLC