Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kama 151105 afdama Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 505 am CST Sat Dec 15 2018 Aviation... 12z issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds are light and southwesterly today. Winds will turn northwesterly around 00z in the north and around 08z in the south. Dht has some haze that shouldn't last too long this morning. Beat && Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CST Sat Dec 15 2018/ Discussion... upper level ridging will gradually track across the plains states this weekend. This will result in dry weather along with warmer temperatures today. A weak cold front will move across the OK and Texas panhandles tonight, leading to a minor setback in temperatures on Sunday. Medium range models are in basic agreement with the overall upper level pattern next Monday through Saturday. A couple upper level shortwave trofs are progged to affect the region, one on Monday and one on Tuesday. Most 00z models continue the dry theme for both shortwave trofs. Have maintained continuity and retained a dry fcst for Monday and Tuesday. A return to dry northwest flow on the east side of an upper level ridge over the western states is then foreseen for the middle to latter part of next week. 02 Fire weather... elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop this afternoon across the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle due to 20 foot southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts along with minimum relative humidity values between 10 and 15 percent. Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday as 20 foot winds are expected to remain below 15 mph and minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 20 percent. 02 && Ama watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. OK...none.

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