Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kama 251812 afdama Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 112 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Aviation... strong north winds of 25-30 kts with gusts near 40 are occurring behind a cold front especially in the nrn panhandles with slightly lower speeds further south. Winds have peaked and will subside through the afternoon. An upper level disturbance will produce mostly mid level clouds and virga due to dry air near the surface overnight. There is a slight chance of some light rain reaching the ground with this activity overnight. The weak convective precipwith dry air below could lead to gusty winds near the precip areas. Mid level clouds will clear from west to east through the day Friday. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && Previous discussion... /issued 621 am CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ Aviation... VFR conditions are expected for the 12z taf period. A cold front will makes its way south through all taf sites starting around 14-15z for kguy/kdht and closer to 17z for kama where winds will shift to northerly. Winds will pick up in speed and will likely be 20-25kts gusting 30-35kts after 15z due to a frontal passage. Winds will then diminish past 00z Friday under 15 kts sustained to the end of the taf period with mostly clear skies throughout taf period. Meccariello Previous discussion... /issued 419 am CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ Short term...today... light and variable winds this morning will become a bit more gusty this afternoon behind a passing cold front. A cold front will work its way south starting across the northern panhandles later this morning to early afternoon through Amarillo. With steep sb height rises behind the front, in the wake of the front itself, winds will become northerly sustained at 25-30 miles per hour with some higher gusts 35-40 miles per hour at times, especially during the afternoon hours. As we get closer to the evening hours, winds will gradually calm down being sustained 10-20 miles per hour out of the northeast as we approach the evening. Latest numerical guidance shows an established h500 northwest flow throughout the day. With a perturbation developing along the southern rockies later today, this may carry an isolated storm for parts of the northwest panhandles as we enter the evening hours. But overall, mostly sunny skies and windy for the panhandles today. Meccariello Long term...tonight through Wednesday... models and ensembles in reasonable agreement regarding upper-level pattern through Sunday, with timing and development differences increasing thereafter with respect to closed low making landfall near Southern California on Monday. Prior to this however, northwest flow aloft tonight will trend toward more zonal Friday through Saturday night. A few showers and thunderstorms may move into western sections of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this evening as a shortwave trof accompanies a plume of higher instability while upslope flow and isentropic lift increase. Instability increases further Friday afternoon and evening across western sections, with showers and thunderstorms possible again. A weak cold front on Saturday will disrupt the supply of low-level moisture, but afternoon and evening thunderstorms will still be possible Saturday across northern sections as elevated instability may support development as another shortwave trof arrives. A stronger cold front Sunday night and Monday may provide support for showers and thunderstorms. As California system emerges from Desert Southwest Monday night through Wednesday, tightening gradients will induce low-level return flow, with better chances for organized, more widespread thunderstorms as shear also increases. Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms expected to be higher during this time frame. Cockrell && Ama watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. OK...none. &&

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