Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kama 210410 afdama Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 1010 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 Aviation... VFR conditions are expected for all three terminals for the 06z taf period. Winds will be light through about 18z Thursday when winds will pick up out of the south at around 20 kts sustained, with gusts around 30 kts. Some mid level clouds may be present around sunrise Thursday. Kguy has a chance to see directional low level wind shear with surface winds out of the S to southeast and winds just aloft out of the SW through most of the morning Thursday. Kama may see some low level wind shear as well around 10z, however confidence is low at this time therefore have left out of the tafs and will amend if needed. Hoffeditz && Previous discussion... /issued issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque nm/ Discussion... Short term... southwest flow with fair skies will dominate the panhandles through Friday morning. Breezy conditions are expected over the region Thursday and Friday afternoon ahead of a Stout trough moving through the southwestern US and into the region Friday night. Temperatures Thursday will be pleasantly with highs in the low 60s south and low 50's towards the nm/OK border. Temperatures tonight and Thursday night will be the lowest in the northwest areas as fair skies and snow covered ground will allow temperatures to dip down into the mid-teens tonight and the mid 20s on Thursday night. Friday will be a transition days the aforementioned trough begins to push into the region late Friday night. Initially it will be a rain snow mix late Friday night in the northwest with all rain elsewhere in the area. Models are hinting at some lower-end cape values late Friday night as the low begins to move through the area, thus a slight chance of thunderstorms was added to the southeastern zones late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Long term... the upper and surface lows will cross the panhandles Saturday. Models all agree on this, but the devil is in the details. European model (ecmwf) and CMC certainly more bullish on quantitative precipitation forecast. Then there is the rain/snow line to deal with. Northwest zones will be all snow and southeast zones all rain, with a mix in between, including north of Ama. Additional snow amounts Saturday morning will be on the order of 1 or 2 inches over the far northern areas, under an inch just south of there. I-40 should escape any accumulation of snow. Precipitation will diminish Saturday afternoon with rain showers confined to the northeast. Winds will will be cranking up during the day, making the chilly temperatures feel even colder. Beyond that we are looking at a dry forecast from Saturday night on. Zonal flow Sunday and Monday will turn northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a short wave trough GOES by to the north. There will be a potent cold front racing south through the forecast area Tuesday night. Warming temperatures Sunday into Tuesday will trend back down Wednesday. Fire weather... in the short term, any elevated to locally near-critical conditions will be possible over the southwestern portions of the forecast area Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to dip into the upper teens as winds become gusty in the afternoon. Overall, most areas will remain shy of red flag criteria due to a combination of normal to above normal fuel moisture as well as winds remaining slightly below rfw criteria. Relative humidity values will slightly increase on Friday, limiting fire weather concerns. Further out, fire weather concerns will be limited to Saturday afternoon in the southeast quarter of the forecast area. Elevated to near critical conditions will be possible. If wetting precipitation occurs prior to this, chances will be slim or none. Strong cold air advection should keep relative humidities above 20 percent. && Ama watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. OK...none.

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