Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kama 220019 afdama Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 719 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018 Aviation... 00z issuance...all sites should be VFR through the period. Southwest flow will prevail with winds around 10-15 kts. Not expecting storms in the northwest to hit taf sites. Beat && Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018/ Discussion... heat, heat, and more heat continue to be the main headlines which will continue throughout the weekend. We urge everyone to continue to practice heat safety while outdoors in this extreme heat. Temperatures currently are ranging from the mid to upper 90s across the Oklahoma Panhandle with a slightly "cooler" easterly component to the wind to many areas in the Texas Panhandle between 100-107. We will have one more day tomorrow of above average temperatures where most areas will once again be between 100-109 degrees as h850 average temperatures on the latest hi-res model guidance continue to show 31-35c. The main high pressure aloft will begin to shift west the second half of Sunday toward The Four Corners region, which will allow h500 winds to shift to northwesterly. As a result, a cold front will begin to move southeast into the panhandles, and in the wake of the cold front, a brief window of gusty northwesterly winds is possible, especially across the western and northwestern panhandles. A surface trough will develop across southwestern Kansas on Sunday and displace south into the region as pressure quickly rise behind the front following the trough in-conjunction with a disturbance looking to move into the region back across northeast New Mexico. Going into the early morning hours on Monday behind the front, a low pressure perturbation along the mean mid level anti-cyclonic flow will move into the northwestern panhandles and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the northern panhandles. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front will finally cool off back into the lower to mid 90's, closer to average. Starting Monday night throughout the remainder of the week, several chances of diurnal convection will bring precipitation chances to most of the panhandles region with persistent mid level northwesterly flow. Depending on the placement of mid level disturbance and initial convection development across the high terrain of Colorado and New Mexico, chances of thunderstorms for location may vary from day to day. Best chances consistently will be across the northern and western panhandles. Some thunderstorms maybe strong at times with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but further details of precipitation specifics will be better understood as we get closer to next week. High temperatures will continue to be near to slightly above normal through next week. Meccariello && Ama watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. OK...none.

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