Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kama 230838 afdama Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 338 am CDT sun Sep 23 2018 Short term... the short term forecast should be uneventful as dry air and subsidence remains in place over the panhandles. The latest water vapor loop shows an amplifying wave coming onshore in the Pacific northwest. Ahead of this feature, the 500mb heights will remain nearly neutral through today, but begin decreasing tonight through tomorrow as winds aloft shift from zonal to southwesterly. Surface dew point depression suggest most of the area will remain fog free this morning with the exception of the far eastern panhandles where brief fog development is not out of the question through sunrise. Low clouds will be likely in the eastern panhandles early Monday morning as near surface moisture increases. Some fog can't be ruled out, but low stratus is favored based on model skew-T moisture profiles. Any clouds and/or fog will be brief and should clear out by mid-morning allowing for ample mixing. Lows this morning will range from the mid 40s to the low 50s giving way to highs in the 80s. South to southeast winds will be slightly higher than yesterday at 10 to 20 mph given proximity to Lee trough and modest surface pressure gradient. Ward && Long term... high temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Monday as surface winds turn more downslope. An upper level trough will move from The Rockies onto the plains by Monday afternoon. This upper level trough will extend from central Canada southward into the panhandles. A Canadian cold front will push south across the panhandles Tuesday morning in association with this large trough. Have gone with the faster cold frontal timing of the NAM model as it seems to handle the surface features the best. Believe the NAM is most correct because the base of the upper level trough is already over the plains by late in the afternoon Monday. This orientation of the trough should help to bring the cold front through early on Tuesday. Have gone ahead and decreased the pops some as the best lift with the front will be well to our south and west. Also the right entrance region of the upper jet will be to our south on Tuesday night, which is were the best upper level lift will be. Showers and thunderstorms will likely form over the mountains of New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and they will try to move eastward toward the panhandles Tuesday evening. But they will move into a cool and stable airmass, so do not know if they will be able to hold together as they move into the western panhandles. A cooler, more stable and a somewhat drier airmass will be across the panhandles on Wednesday, anther reason why we think rain chances will decrease. The upper level trough will move east by Thursday and heights will start to rise. After a couple of days of highs below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures will get back to normal or above for Thursday through the end of this forecast. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Amarillo Texas 83 52 90 56 65 / 0 0 0 0 5 Beaver OK 83 55 91 57 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 87 53 89 54 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Borger Texas 86 55 95 60 68 / 0 0 0 0 5 Boys Ranch Texas 87 52 93 57 66 / 0 0 0 0 5 canyon Texas 83 52 89 56 67 / 0 0 0 0 5 Clarendon Texas 80 55 87 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dalhart Texas 85 50 92 54 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 87 53 93 56 63 / 0 0 0 0 5 Hereford Texas 83 52 90 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 5 Lipscomb Texas 82 57 89 58 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Pampa Texas 82 55 90 57 68 / 0 0 0 0 5 Shamrock Texas 80 57 86 59 78 / 0 5 0 0 5 Wellington Texas 81 57 87 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 && Ama watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. OK...none.

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