Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kama 210925 afdama Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 425 am CDT Mon may 21 2018 Discussion... another quiet day today, but thunderstorms could return later this evening. Removed the mention of fog for this morning, as easterly flow is weak, and temp dewpoint spread is not moving much. Areas in central and southwest Kansas have the potential for dense fog, as satellite currently shows. It's possible that the northeast panhandles may see some low clouds/fog early today, before breaking free of these by late morning. Confidence is not high enough to mention, thusly not in the current forecast. It looks more favorable for a late tonight to overnight period for the thunderstorms. Showers and storms will start off over the mountains of nm and are expected to become more of a line later tonight. Have increased pops across the western zones. Southwest flow will continue through the week, with a westerly flow transition on Thursday evening into Friday. High pressure will continue to build over the Arizona/nm area, and as it builds the west flow will transition to northwest flow. Best chance for a break in storms will be on Thursday and Friday as the flow shifts, however there is still a chance for storms during this period. As northwest flow sets in the chance for summertime thunderstorms under northwest flow will be there each day. Temperatures by the time we reach the end of the week will be in the 90s across many areas. Some models are suggesting the possibility of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees over the weekend. While coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain, any storm that develop this week could be strong and possibly severe. Weber && Aviation...06z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail at kguy through the forecast period, but kama and kdht could experience a brief period of IFR to MVFR conditions due to low ceiling as low level moisture increases. Winds will be around 5 to 15 kts throughout the taf period for all terminals, with predominant direction being southeasterly during the evening hours and south to southwest during the daytime hours. Bieda && Preliminary point temps/pops... Amarillo Texas 82 59 79 61 84 / 10 50 30 30 30 Beaver OK 86 63 86 64 88 / 5 10 30 40 30 Boise City OK 83 58 80 59 87 / 10 40 20 20 20 Borger Texas 85 62 82 64 87 / 10 30 30 30 30 Boys Ranch Texas 85 59 80 61 87 / 20 50 20 30 20 canyon Texas 81 59 79 60 85 / 10 50 20 30 30 Clarendon Texas 81 61 80 62 84 / 10 20 30 30 30 Dalhart Texas 83 57 80 58 86 / 20 40 20 30 20 Guymon OK 85 60 84 62 89 / 5 30 30 20 20 Hereford Texas 81 58 78 59 85 / 20 60 20 30 30 Lipscomb Texas 85 62 84 65 87 / 10 10 30 50 30 Pampa Texas 81 59 80 61 84 / 10 20 30 30 30 Shamrock Texas 83 61 83 64 85 / 10 20 30 50 30 Wellington Texas 84 63 84 65 87 / 10 20 20 40 30 && Ama watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. OK...none. &&

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