Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kapx 221739 afdapx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan 139 PM EDT Wed may 22 2019 Update... issued at 1036 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 995 mb low pressure was centered over eastern South Dakota with a warm front south in the Ohio Valley. Warm advection driven band of rain showers continues to progress across northern Michigan from southwest to northeast. Have removed the slight chance of thunder as there is little evidence of instability. The band of rain should clear the northeast portion of the forecast area through early afternoon. This will leave mostly cloudy skies...just a few peeks of sun if we are lucky. Highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s southwest. && Near term...(today through tonight) issued at 356 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 High impact weather: minimal. Maybe a rumble of thunder tonight. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Stacked low pressure was located in the Central Plains early this morning, with a corridor of deep moisture (pwats 1.00 to 1.50") and showers with embedded thunderstorms lifting north/NE through Lake Michigan, and toward nrn Michigan. These showers were well north of a warm front extending east-southeast of the sfc low, through srn IL. Forcing was being applied by low level confluent flow, Theta-E advection via a 40-45kt llj, increasing DPVA in strengthening mid level flow, as well as left exit region upper divergence from a 120+kt jet rounding the based of the closed upper system. Attm, nrn Michigan was just seeing some thickening mid and upper level clouds. Looking a bit upstream, there was a pre-frontal sfc trough that was out ahead of the main cold front, which extended south into Kansas/OK/North Texas. Skies continue to thicken in clouds heading through daybreak, while the aforementioned forcing pushes into the region. This will saturate the low levels and bring in the band of rain from SW to NE through the day. There is little in the way of MUCAPE ahead of the warm front with these showers, on the order of 100-300j/kg, so doubt thunder is an issue. This is despite being in a lapse rate gradient aloft. There is a likely period of quiet weather behind the warm front, in the warm sector into the evening, before the pre-frontal trough arrives ahead of the primary cold front later this evening and into the overnight hours. This will result in another chance for seeing maybe some better/heavier showers, along with a chance for some embedded thunderstorms. Although there are some definite discrepancies in how much instability is around, there appears to be at least 500-800j/kg available. Have introduced thunder for all areas during this time. No severe weather anticipated, which is also in alignment with the latest Storm Prediction Center day 1 outlook. The primary cold front does not really get here until Thursday. This allows all of nrn Michigan to remain in the warm sector for the night. This will keep lows in the upper half of the 40s in eastern upper (southerly flow off the cold lakes), to the mid and upper 50s most areas in nrn lower. High temperatures today will top out in the upper half of the 50s for eastern upper and NE lower, to the upper half of the 60s (maybe low 70s in spots) for downsloping easterly winds in the gtv Bay region. && Short term...(thursday through friday) issued at 356 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 High impact weather potential: a few thunderstorms remain possible Friday afternoon through Friday night. Pattern synopsis/forecast: by Thursday morning, well-advertised low pressure that's plagued parts of the midsection of the country early this week is expected to have weakened considerably while shifting northeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes. High pressure is expected to gradually press into the area throughout the day Thursday before low-level return flow ramps up late Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next system set to bring wet and potentially stormy weather to northern Michigan. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Friday. Low pressure is expected to be situated across Central Lake Superior at the start of the period early Thursday morning with an attendant cold front draped southward...gradually pressing west to east across the forecast area. See no glaring reason to remove inherited low end pops across the eastern half of the forecast area Thursday morning; however, those chances will rather quickly come to an end as high pressure and much drier deep layer air press into the area throughout the day. High temperatures Thursday likely predicated on timing of the cold frontal passage, but expecting many area to climb into at least the low 70s across northern lower (upper 50s-low 60s across eastern upper). Break in the active weather continues Thursday night prior to the arrival of the net wave renewing shower chances as we head through the day Friday and into Friday night. Latest trends continue to suggest respectable moisture influx with both a Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moister plume advecting north, although question Marks revolve around the overall dynamics and resultant forcing. Will continue thunder chances as well through this time frame given guidance remaining fairly consistent in developing at least a couple hundred j/kg of MLCAPE across sections of northern lower late Friday into Friday evening. Lots of time yet to monitor any severe weather threat locally over the next few days, but will likely hinge largely on the strength of large scale forcing for ascent, the ability to develop instability and strength of winds/shear aloft...all of which latest trends are maximized well to our southwest across the mid and upper MS valleys. Long term...(friday night through tuesday) issued at 356 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 High impact weather potential: minimal. Shower and potential thunderstorm threat continues Friday night, with relatively quiet conditions expected thereafter through the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Suppose there could be a rogue shower or two during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but that will large be the exception rather than the rule. Temperatures look fairly seasonable, ranging from the mid 60s to the mid-70s area wide (perhaps even a few locations across downsloping locales of northeast lower that are able to tag 80+ degrees. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) issued at 136 PM EDT Wed may 22 2019 Low pressure in the plains will lead to gusty winds through the taf period. There will also be a few showers, mainly tonight. MVFR ceilings and possible fog will form late tonight...along with low level wind shear. && Marine... issued at 356 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 Stacked low pressure in the Central Plains will lift into Minnesota by this evening, pushing a warm front into nrn Michigan by this evening. Then, this low pressure and it's cold front crosses tonight and Thursday morning. High pressure settles back in for Thursday night. The pressure gradient has been tightening all night, with easterly winds as high as 40-45kts no more than 2kft off the water sfc, but Overlake stability, based on marine obs, have kept things in check thus far. Doubt this may represent the "real world", and have issued a Small Craft Advisory for many nearshore waters. These advisories go through today and into this evening, before winds weaken due to strengthening Overlake instability. Renewed advisory speeds are expected out of the west Thursday, behind the cold front. Winds die off Thursday night as the high pressure arrives. Light rain/showers arrives from SW to NE prior to daybreak, through today, with another chance at rain tonight with possibly a rumble of thunder. && Apx watches/warnings/advisories... Michigan...Beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz088-096. LH...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for lhz345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for lhz349. Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for lmz341-342. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for lmz323- 344>346. Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for lsz321-322. && $$ Update...as near term...smd

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