Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 karx 190231 afdarx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 930 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Short term...(this evening through friday) issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Low cloud and scattered showers this afternoon prevalent this afternoon as a mid level trough makes its way through the area. The trough exits east later this evening with a ridge of high pressure building in from the northern/Central Plains. This will disperse clouds from northwest to southeast with mainly clear skies expected by Friday sunrise. Northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph overnight should mitigate fog development -given very moist ground and lower boundary layer moisture. Plan on lows tonight in the Lower/Middle 30s. High pressure will provide a splendid Friday with full sunshine and highs topping off in the middle 50s to the middle 60s. Long term...(friday night through thursday) issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Main forecast concerns in the long term are on high temperatures and afternoon relative humidity values on Saturday. Focus then turns to showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday. Riding aloft and southwest flow at the surface will usher in warmer temperatures for Saturday with highs climbing into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Deep mixing will result in afternoon relative humidity values falling into the lower 20s to lower 30s. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Sunday, but we should see one more day of pleasant temperatures. In fact, some areas over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin could climb into the mid 70s. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along the front as a shortwave works through the region. The front is expected to slip south of the area Monday into Tuesday then forecast model solutions start to diverge. The GFS is bringing a low through the area with widespread rainfall possible from Tuesday night through Thursday. Treated this as an outlier but will have to keep an eye on it. Considerable uncertainty in the forecast then from Wednesday and beyond as the European model (ecmwf) is showing a broad ridge in place across the Continental U.S. And the GFS is indicating more troughing, especially over the northern Continental U.S.. will lean heavily toward a model consensus blend for temperatures and precipitation chances from the middle to late part of next week. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night) issued at 930 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Cigs: mostly skc conditions into Friday night as the region comes under the influence of weak high pressure. Weather/vsby: no impacts expected at this time. Winds: mostly northerly around 10 kts - bit less tonight, esp for klse which has decoupled (could go southeast in direction). Will got light/vrb for Fri evening. && Hydrology... issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Flooding continues on area rivers including portions of the Mississippi, black, Trempealeau, Wisconsin, and yellow. The latest river forecasts and expected impacts can be found at water.Weather.Gov. && Arx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Minnesota...none. Iowa...none. && $$

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