Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 kbgm 202000 afdbgm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Binghamton New York 400 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Synopsis... a slow moving upper level low pressure system will track through the mid-Atlantic region this weekend, bringing scattered rain showers to the area. On and off rain showers with mild temperatures continue into next week. && Near term /through Sunday/... 355 PM update...upper level low continues to spin across the Ohio Valley while very slowly moving east. Water vapor loop shows the deep, southerly moisture plume has shifted east of our area now, and central New York/NE PA is along the edge of the mid level dry slot. Visible satellite shows breaks of sun developing across our central and western zones (close to the mid level dry slot)...however surface and mixed layer instability is rising due to daytime heating. Latest mesoanalysis shows between 250-500 j/kg and lifted indices between 0 to -2. Kbgm radar shows scattered showers moving southeast to northwest across the region late this afternoon, but lightning is very limited. There is still a lot deep layer shear, perhaps too much, with 0-6km shear now around 70 kts. Storm Prediction Center dropped the marginal risk for severe storms, so with this update, we are just expecting perhaps an isolated t'storm through 7pm. Later this evening and tonight it should be mainly dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cannot rule out a stray shower or sprinkle. Mild with lows in the mid 40s to around 50. The upper level low moves along the Mason-Dixon line on Sunday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers to the region once again. Some of the showers could be rather slow moving as the steering flow decreases. Therefore may need to keep an eye out for locally heavy downpours. Not much if any instability so thunder seems rather unlikely. Remaining mild with highs in the 60s. Southwest winds turn northwest late in the day; under 10 mph. && Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/... 355 PM update...upper level low passes by well to our south across the mid-Atlantic. Our area will see a variable flow regime, starting east-southeast then turning more north- northeasterly as the low moves east along the coast. There will be a slight chance to low end chance for some wrap around showers under mostly cloudy skies. The upper level low then slides further northeast off the coast of Long Island Monday into Monday night. Latest guidance seems to be backing off on rain potential during this timeframe...but with that said there will still be a chance for scattered rain showers during this period. Late Monday night the low shifts east, well off the coast and our weather should dry out areawide as upper level heights rise. Staying milder than average this period with lows in the 40s and highs in the mid to upper 60s. && Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... Tuesday starts off with warm, moist air funneling into the area thanks to southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. This could touch off some showers during the morning, followed by increasing chances for scattered showers and storms through the afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Models continue to indicate a few hundred j/kg of cape in the area for later in the day Tuesday, and while winds could turn gusty in storms, there is little to indicate any risk of strong to severe storms. Furthermore, while pwats increase to around an inch Tuesday night, we are not working with any deep layer moisture. So, while some heavier downpours are possible in storms, flooding shouldn't be much of a concern. Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period, with lows generally in the mid/upper 40s and highs in the 70s. The front finally works through Tuesday night, stalling out to our south as the surface low slowly makes its way towards New Brunswick. Chances for showers will linger through Wednesday behind this exiting system, and while our best chances for a brief dry period will be Thursday afternoon as we experience some ridging, a stray shower cannot be ruled out especially across the southern portions of the area ahead of another approaching shortwave. This drags another cold front through Friday, with better chances for showers throughout the day. Rain wraps up into Saturday as high pressure takes control once again. As for temperatures, look for lows generally in the 40s and highs in the 50s and 60s. && Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... sct to bkn cloud layers between 2-5k ft agl are around the area this afternoon. Instability is causing mid level cumulus and cumulonimbus to develop as well, with scattered rain showers. Instability is expected to continue to increase through late afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. For now have included tempo groups in the tafs at all sites between 18-22z this afternoon for shra and MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions are then expected from later this evening, right into Sunday morning with just some bkn mid and high clouds. A frontal boundary draped SW-NE across the region...with south- southeast winds 8-15 kts east of the boundary and still variable or north winds west of the boundary. The front is now located near Elm-ith-syr, but is expected to lift off further to the northwest. South winds mostly less than 10 kts are then forecast at all terminals tonight into Sunday morning. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Monday...mainly VFR with occasional restrictions possible in rain showers. Tuesday...mainly VFR. Tuesday night and Wednesday...restrictions possible in periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Thursday...VFR expected. && Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... PA...none. New York...none. && $$ Synopsis...mjm

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