Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 kbtv 222248 afdbtv Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 648 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Synopsis... a weak low pressure system will move just to the east of Cape Cod this evening and bring some rain showers to far southeastern and eastern Vermont through the overnight hours. This low will quickly track to the northeast and rainfall will end by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be another beautiful Spring like day with temperatures warming back into the mid 60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. A cold front will then sweep across the north country Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with widespread rainfall amounts around a quarter of an inch with up to half of an inch for western facing slopes. Temperatures will then return to near normal temperatures through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The next chance of rainfall won't come until Friday when another cold front moves through the north country. && Near term /through Tuesday night/... as of 625 PM EDT Monday...quick update to the evening forecast to adjust sky cover and pops. Latest radar and satellite trends show precip is having a hard time moving westward into the mid- level ridge located over the eastern Great Lake and northern New York. Meanwhile, some mid-level clouds riding over said ridge are encroaching upon the St. Lawrence Valley from the northwest. Adjustments to the forecast were to taper back pops across eastern Vermont to mainly chance with only a brief window of likely showers near Springfield VT, and lower cloud cover across central areas before approaching mid clouds spread eastward overnight. Temps remain on track for Tuesday morning lows ranging through the 40s. Previous discussion...it has shaped up to be another beautiful Spring day across the North County with decent shortwave ridging and a surface trough building in from the west. Increasing subsidence associated with these features has helped keep diurnal cumulus under control even though temperatures once again have warmed into the lower 60s to lower 70s. The moisture plume that was prevalent last night and early this morning has shifted east with main moisture axis now over central and eastern Maine. After watching the formation of a surface low off the virginian coast, it looks like it will track slightly further east than previously forecasted and take it right over or just east of the benchmark. With the system being very compact, it looks like most of the rainfall will fall east of the Connecticut River during the overnight hours. However, it could still clip extreme southeastern Vermont near Springfield and drop a quarter of an inch of rain. There will be an impressive gradient in rainfall amounts so any further eastward deviations could lead to most, if not all, of Vermont remaining on the dry side tonight. With ample cloud cover expected to redevelop tonight, lows will once again be above normal with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Tuesday will start off as another nice day with the aforementioned ridging shift directly overhead. Highs will easily climb back into the mid 60s to lower 70s under partly sunny skies and light northerly winds. However, an developing upper level trough will become negatively tilted through the day on Tuesday and begin to push across the north country starting Tuesday evening. A decent jet streak will develop on the eastern side of the trough as it moves through the region which will help produce some enhanced upper level support and drive a cold front through the region. In addition, a nice band of frontogenesis will be present at both the 925 mb and 850 mb layers, albeit slightly offset. The increased low level and upper level support should yield a period of nice rainfall as the cold front pushes through Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Rainfall totals for the most part look to be around a quarter of an inch but the western slopes of the green and Adirondack Mountains could see as much as half of an inch of rainfall. Thunderstorms look unlikely given the timing of the front and lack of surface and mid- level instability which should inhibit any one location from seeing locally higher amounts of rainfall. && Short term /Wednesday through Wednesday night/... as of 253 PM EDT Monday...shortwave trough pulls through the region during Wednesday, then exits east by Wednesday night under a near seasonal late April airmass. With moist cyclonic flow in place, plenty of clouds will be the rule during the daylight hours which will tend to scatter out overnight into Thursday morning. Highest coverage of scattered showers will occur across the northern mountains on Wednesday where some orographic enhancement will be likely in closer proximity to the associated mid level cool pool. Quantitative precipitation forecast will remain light however. By Wednesday night conditions trend largely dry as heights build on the northern end of mid Atlantic high pressure. && Long term /Thursday through Monday/... as of 253 PM EDT Monday...an active pattern continues into late week with brief high pressure on Thursday giving way to another digging shortwave trough and showers by Friday. Additional energy may or may not affect the area once again by later in the weekend but timing and placement differences among medium range solutions give pause to getting too certain at this point given fast westerly flow aloft. The troughing with the Friday system is a little more robust than the mid-week feature, so highest pops (50- 70%) will be offered at this point with a trend toward a slightly cooler regime from Saturday Onward. && Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/... through 00z Wednesday...a squeeze play across our area for the next 24-36 hours with eastern Vermont witnessing some light rain/showers from coastal while a cold front approaches western areas by late in the day Tuesday. Pretty much VFR with mid cloud deck exceppt krut and kmpv could see a shower or two through the overnight hours, it looks like ceilings will stay at 4000 ft or greater. Ceilings will improve once again Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front with north to northwest winds of 10 knots or less. Outlook... Tuesday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite rain showers. Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance rain showers. Wednesday night: mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance rain showers. Thursday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance rain showers. Thursday night: VFR. Chance rain showers. Friday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely rain showers. Friday night: mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance rain showers. Saturday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance rain showers. && Btv watches/warnings/advisories... Vermont...none. New York...none. && $$

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