Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kchs 230145 afdchs Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 945 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will prevail with dry weather through Thursday. Low pressure and a cold front will then bring unsettled weather late this week into the weekend. && Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/... another quiet night weatherwise will prevail across the local region, with high pressure at the surface and a deep and dry northwest flow aloft as a short wave ridge approaches from the west. Clear skies and light/calm winds will support almost optimal radiational cooling. It won't be as cool as the last two nights with higher dew points, but we're still on track for min temps 50-55f inland from US-17, with temps closer to 60f along the coast and in downtown Charleston. The hi-res guidance continues to hint at some fog as we approach sunrise. We continue to think it'll just be shallow ground fog, so there is no mention in the forecast. && Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/... Tuesday through thursday: subsidence provided by deep layered high pressure will support high temperatures in the Lower/Middle 80s Tuesday, then temperatures will warm further into upper 80s/close to 90f away from the beaches Wednesday and Thursday. Expect low temperatures in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s close to the coast Tuesday night, followed by low temperatures around 60f inland and in the Lower/Middle 60s closer to the coast Wednesday night. Within the westerly flow aloft, patchy high clouds will stream across the region at just about anytime through Wednesday. Then, thicker cirrus could spread across the region Thursday. Otherwise, expect nothing more than scattered diurnal cumulus especially Wednesday/Thursday, and the chance for measurable rainfall will remain essentially zero through this period. && Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... a storm system with its associated cold front is expected to move through the region on Friday, bringing showers and cooler temperatures. However, models disagree on the track and timing of the main features along with the main bands of rainfall. Hence, we have chance pops in the forecast. By the weekend the models continue to differ on whether it will be dry or if showers will persist. We opted to go with slight chance pops to account for this. && Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/... VFR. Low end chance of some ground fog close to daybreak Tuesday. Extended aviation outlook: VFR through Thursday, with only a low probability for ground fog around sunrise each day. Then, low pressure, a cold front and showers/thunderstorms could produce periodic flight restrictions Friday into Saturday. && Marine... tonight: a minimal gradient will prevail with high pressure overhead. S or SW winds on the South Carolina waters and southeast on the Georgia waters early on will move to the SW and west overnight and late with land breeze influences. Speeds will be around 5-10 kt. Seas will average around 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft on the outer Georgia waters. Tuesday through saturday: under high pressure, the sea breeze circulation featuring winds of 15 knots or less will dominate local winds Tuesday afternoon/early evening. Seas will average 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm. Then, a tightening pressure gradient will support somewhat stronger southwest synoptic winds especially Wednesday through Thursday, and the south/southwest sea breeze could locally gust as high as 15-20 knots. Seas will respond and will average 2-4 feet. A cold front will then move through the region sometime between Friday afternoon and late Friday night, followed by a wind shift to the northeast by Saturday. Winds/seas could approach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday. && Chs watches/warnings/advisories... Georgia...none. SC...none. Marine...none. && $$

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