Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kdlh 222332 afddlh Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Update... issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Minor updates made to the forecast as rain ends and clouds gradually clear out. Will keep the Flood Watch up for a few hours after the rain ends to see if any flooding is occurring as water works its way through the various creeks and streams into the larger rivers. Main concern is along the South Shore, particularly northern Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties where some rivers, including the bad river, tend to respond fairly quickly. && Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night) issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 An area of low pressure in northeast Iowa this afternoon, in conjunction with a warm front across central Wisconsin, were leading to showers across northwest Wisconsin due to broad scale lift along the warm front. As this system slides to the east this evening, showers will continue to diminish across northwest Wisconsin. There may be an isolated rumble of thunder, but an overall weakening trend has been observed and any lightning has remained well away from the area. Additional rainfall amounts to around a half inch will be possible, mainly across Ashland and Iron counties. Most of the shower activity will be east of the area by midnight. The Flood Watch still looks good with some rises being seen along rivers and creeks in the Ashland area. Clearing skies will then be seen from west to east for this evening and tonight as high pressure begins to build in. With clearing skies and light winds, temperatures will drop into the middle to lower 30s across much of the Northland with perhaps some upper 20s in The Arrowhead. Partly to mostly sunny and dry conditions will then be seen for Tuesday as the high passes overhead. Some clouds may start to filter in to western areas Tuesday afternoon as the high begins to depart and the next wave starts to approach from the northwest. Highs tomorrow will top out in the 60s across much of the Northland, with 50s near Lake Superior and northern and eastern reaches of northwest Wisconsin. A weak upper level wave will then move into the international border area for Tuesday night. Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy across the entire area with a chance for a few light showers along and north of the Iron Range after midnight. Most of the energy and rainfall with this system look to remain north of the border with rainfall amounts being only a few hundredths of an inch. Lows Tuesday night will range from the middle 40s in western areas to middle 30s east where skies will remain clearer later into the night. Long term...(wednesday through monday) issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Wednesday and Wednesday night, we will have a shortwave and cold front move slowly through the area. Enough instability should develop for some afternoon convection, so I have put in a small area of thunder for the afternoon hours. It should be another warm one on Wednesday, with highs in the 60s to near 70, but turning cooler for Thursday and Friday with highs by Friday only in the 50s near 60 as a ridge of high pressure moves in and colder air moving in aloft. There are a lot of differences in the forecast for this weekend. There is broad west-northwesterly flow aloft, and a potent shortwave dives through the upper level flow. The GFS and Canadian really wind this system up as it moves across the area, where the European model (ecmwf) is keeping more energy farther west and this leading system stays south of the forecast area, and is much, much weaker. The GFS ensemble is weaker than either the operational GFS or Canadian, and the naefs ensemble only shows the zonal flow. Thus, have little confidence in this storm for the weekend, and we will have to wait and see just how things play out the next couple days before there is a better indication. Thus, have pretty much left the consensus forecast as is, with precipitation chances through the weekend with a mix of rain and/or snow. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 VFR conditions will prevail at most taf sites through the forecast period, with the exception of IFR conditions at hyr through this evening, possibly through the night. As rain ends some fog is possible overnight, mainly at dlh and hyr, but the high-level cirrus clouds aloft could reduce just how far temperatures cool down tonight, limiting fog to just some localized areas. Confidence is greatest in fog at hyr, less so at dlh, unlikely at other sites. Otherwise some clearing overnight then more VFR clouds tomorrow as high pressure builds in briefly. Winds will be variable in direction through the forecast period due to the high building in, but generally less than 10 knots. && Marine... issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Northeast winds on Lake Superior produced building waves overnight, but they have been diminishing slowly today, and expect them to diminish further this evening as the winds drop off. Winds will turn out of the southwest on Tuesday, but remain generally less than 10kts. && Preliminary point temps/pops... dlh 32 58 40 67 / 0 0 10 20 inl 33 64 44 68 / 0 0 40 20 brd 34 65 45 71 / 0 0 10 20 hyr 33 60 38 69 / 50 0 0 10 asx 33 55 36 67 / 50 0 0 20 && Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... WI...Flood Watch until 1 am CDT Tuesday for wiz001>004-006>008. Minnesota...none. Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for lsz121- 143>148. && $$ Update...jjm

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