Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kdmx 182349 afddmx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa 649 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Discussion.../tonight through Thursday/ issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 The primary weather themes through the period will be warming temperatures into the weekend and then at least some window for precipitation chances early next week or beyond. Stratus/stratocumulus continues to spill into Iowa within broad low level cyclonic flow and moisture embedded along and just behind the departing long wave trough. Radar mosaic and visible satellite imagery suggests there may be brief, isolated light showers west through sunset following by clearing overnight. This will lead to nil forcing and moisture into Friday with plenty of sunshine. The long wave trough will close off through the Ohio Valley into the weekend but upper level ridging will move into the MO and MS valleys for the weekend. This will produce return flow by Saturday with warming and temps rebounding into the 70s for highs until a weak northern stream wave pushes a front through into Sunday night and starts a window of potential precipitation with chances into Monday. Confidence in how long this lasts is low however with considerable model differences with regard to the evolution of the upstream western Continental U.S. Trough, much like yesterday. The GFS remains more aggressive with an initial MO valley short wave Tue followed by additional northern stream phasing by Wed. There is support for this in the gefs as well. Meanwhile the 12z European model (ecmwf) is now much less phased leaving a meandering closed low across the southwest Continental U.S. And little going on through Iowa and the Midwest between that and the more active Great Lakes flow. Thus until the model differences can be resolved have a prolonged period of chance pops through Wednesday. && Aviation.../for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening/ issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 VFR conditions expected. Remaining clouds and winds the main concerns early this period with some return of gusty winds again aft 15z Friday east sites kdsm, kotm, and Kalo. Ridge of high pressure expected to pass southeast into area Friday. Winds will mix again east while kfod sees less wind under 12kts. Cigs give way to generally skc aft 06z tonight with few 040-060 developing aft 15z Friday. Slightly stronger winds expected again east of i35 corridor Friday. /Rev && Dmx watches/warnings/advisories... none. &&

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