Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kfgf 202002 afdfgf Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 302 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Short term...(this evening through sunday) issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Westerly flow aloft will remain over the area into Sunday. Considerable mid level moisture will remain in place in this flow into Sunday. Sfc low and 850 mb low in western South Dakota will move east thru eastern South Dakota thru the night. Some warm advection at 850 mb on the northeast side of the low may produce the risk of a few T-storms in northeastern South Dakota and perhaps into far southeast ND and west central Minnesota tonight. Showwalters in the -1 to -3c range will exit along the South Dakota/ND border this evening, with a bit more unstable values south. Otherwise will maintain a 30 ish type pop for -shra thru tonight. The main shower threat will shift south on Sunday to more southeastern ND and west central Minnesota. Long term...(sunday night through saturday) issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Shower threat ends in our south Sunday evening as the main rain chances favor more southern Minnesota. Expect generally quiet weather for much of the upcoming week, with rain chances developing Wednesday and Wednesday night and potentially again for next weekend. Early in the week, mild and quiet weather prevails as the northern plains remains under the influence of northern zonal flow aloft. On Monday and Tuesday, Colorado low skirts to the southeast, mainly affecting the Central Plains from Nebraska to Michigan, but there is a small chance that some showers could pass through portions of west central Minnesota. Warmer air builds into the region heading into Wednesday, as warm air advection develops ahead of an eastward moving cold front which drapes south into the region from the Hudson Bay. Expect this to be one of the warmest days of the week with high temperatures in the 60s and perhaps 70s for some. This frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and night brings additional rain chances across the region. Instability is progged to be weak at less than 500 j/kg of MUCAPE and negative showalter values, so anticipate isolated thunderstorms with this activity. Behind this system, mild and dry high pressure builds in for a quiet Thursday. The early-week split flow across the Continental U.S. Yields to a more active weather pattern heading into the weekend as the jet stream redevelops across the northern half of the Continental U.S.. this looks to yield additional rainfall chances for next weekend, but confidence in any details is low at this time. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon) issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 A weak cold front will drop slowly southeast thru the evening turning winds in bji and far to the north and then northeast at 10 kts mid to late aftn. Otherwise mid level moisture with areas of thicker altocu. Cigs thru the pd expected to be at or above 8000 ft agl. && Hydrology... issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Throughout this weekend and early next week, generally drier weather will be favorable for tempering ongoing flooding conditions. River levels along the majority of North Dakota tributaries will continue to fall through the weekend and early next week. The Sheyenne river at Kindred is expected to crest just below moderate flood stage by Monday morning, before beginning to fall. At West Fargo and Harwood, river levels are still affected by backwater and will begin to slowly fall next week. Mapleton, the Final Point along the Maple River above flood stage, is expected to fall below flood stage on Sunday. River levels along the majority of northwestern Minnesota tributaries are falling, except for the Buffalo River at Dilworth where levels will remain nearly steady above flood stage through the weekend and then begin to fall. The Marsh river at Shelly is expected to fall below flood stage this evening. Forecast points along the mainstem Red River will experience rising levels in the far south (secondary crests due to dam releases and rainfall from earlier this week) and far north (initial snowmelt crest) during the upcoming week. For the upcoming week, Fargo is expected to once again remain in major flood, and Grand Forks will remain in moderate flood. River levels at Oslo will experience slight variations, remaining nearly steady in major flood through at least the upcoming week. At Drayton, river levels are cresting this weekend, while Pembina will see a crest late in the upcoming week. && Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... ND...none. Minnesota...none. Areal and River Point flood warnings continue across portions of the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations. && $$

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