Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kgrb 231735 afdgrb Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Updated aviation portion for 18z taf issuance Short term...today...tonight...and Wednesday issued at 312 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over Southern Lake Michigan just east of Port Washington, Wisconsin as evidenced by the curl in the infrared imagery. Rain will continue to wind down across east-central Wisconsin this morning as this low continues moving east and high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes region. The high will bring drier air with mostly sunny skies later this morning and into the afternoon hours as high temperatures range from the middle to upper 50s across the north, with highs of 60 to 65 across the south. The high will drift slowly southeast tonight, as dry weather and mostly clear skies continue. An approaching low will bring increasing clouds to the north Wednesday afternoon, however dry weather is expected to continue across the area. Lows tonight will be in the 30s, with highs on Wednesday climbing into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Much of the area only received around one half of an inch of rain from this system, save for a thin swath of 1 to 2 inches along a line from Algoma, to Green Bay, to Appleton, to Omro. Given this thin swath of heavy rain is mainly outside of the area of central and northeast Wisconsin that got copious amounts of rain last week and with only light rain in the forecast for the next few days will cancel the Flood Watch for the area with the new forecast package. Long term...Wednesday night through Monday issued at 312 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Much of the next week will be characterized by low amplitude flow across the northern tier of the conus, which will keep temps near to above normal into the start of the weekend. As the jet stream sags south, temps will likely fall below normal this weekend into early next week. Forecast concerns, however, generally revolve around precip chances due to high water levels and fast flows on area rivers. The models generally have some differences with the forecast rainfall on Wednesday night night and Thursday. Since it appears that much of the moisture will get soaked up by low pressure over the Ohio Valley, will put more stock into the lower qpf producing solutions, like the ECMWF. A second round of precip is then possible over the weekend, but the spread is rather large so will stick with a general model blend. Wednesday night through Thursday night...shortwave energy moving across the northern Great Lakes will push a cold front across the region during the Wednesday night into Thursday time period. Will see a ribbon of higher dewpoints accompany the front, but its difficult to find much in the way of instability or higher values of moisture transport along the front. As a result, precip looks likely along the front, but amounts look relatively light, perhaps up to a quarter inch. The chance of precip will likely end on Thursday afternoon and will see clearing behind the front for Thursday night. With the clouds and rainfall, temps on Thursday will be cooler than on Wednesday. Rest of the forecast...temps will continue there cooling trend on Friday into Saturday thanks to passage of a secondary cold front. Otherwise, will be watching the track of a low pressure system during the Friday night into Saturday time period. A farther north track could lead to a more substantial precip threat than depicted in the ECMWF solution. Temps may also be cold enough for some flakes over parts of the area on late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Cooler weather will continue into early next week with another chance of precip on next Monday. && Aviation...for 18z taf issuance issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Still expect some gusty north-northwest winds this afternoon as low pressure continues to pull away from the region. These winds are forecast to quickly diminish early this evening as a ridge of high pressure begins to move across WI. Warmer air to our west will begin to spread east from the upper MS valley later tonight and bring some high clouds to the area. South-southwest winds to prevail on Wednesday with only mid and high clouds anticipated. Bottom line, VFR conditions to persist through 00z Thursday. && Hydrology... issued at 312 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Much of the area only received around one half of an inch of rain from this system, save for a thin swath of 1 to 2 inches along a line from Algoma, to Green Bay, to Appleton, to Omro. Given this thin swath of heavy rain is mainly outside of the area of central and northeast Wisconsin that got copious amounts of rain last week and with only light rain in the forecast for the next few days will cancel the Flood Watch for the area. Despite the cancellation of the Flood Watch, additional rises in river levels are expected across central and northeast Wisconsin as this latest rain filters into the local tributaries. Please monitor the latest river forecasts for further information on flooding in your local area. && Grb watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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