Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kgrr 192342 afdgrr Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan 742 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Latest update... aviation Synopsis... issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 - several chances for rain through the 7 day forecast - temperatures fairly seasonable, to slightly above normal - chance for some thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday && Discussion...(this evening through next friday) issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Several chances for rain will occur over the course of the next 7 days. The first is associated with an upper low that is located off to our south this afternoon over the deep south. The low will move north tonight and bring a band of rain back into the area late tonight and on Saturday. The low will ease away to the east Sunday into Monday. On Monday a warm front will set up across central lower Michigan with a low off to our west. The front will be a focus for showers and storms Monday into Monday night before the low moves through on Tuesday. 850mb Lis become negative Monday into Tuesday, so thunderstorms are certainly possible. At this point it does not look like anything close to severe, but some locally heavy rain would certainly be possible. The next chance for rain would come on Thursday night into Friday with a potent looking clipper system diving southeast through the area. Models are hinting at some locally heavy rain with this system. Temperatures through the 7 day forecast look fairly Spring like with readings in the 60s to even around 70. Tomorrow may be the coolest day in the next 7 with some clouds and rain showers around. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening) issued at 741 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 While western lower Michigan has VFR conditions, central and eastern lower Michigan will remain MVFR with areas of IFR through Saturday afternoon. North winds will gust over 20 knots at times. && Marine... issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 At this time planning on keeping the status quo with the Small Craft Advisory. Waves will generally peak in the 4 to 8 foot range tonight and only slowly come down on Saturday. Late tonight we may be able to update and drop the northern zones, while continuing the zones from Holland south into Saturday evening. It will be close however with waves near 4 feet close to the 5 mile mark off shore (the edge of our nearshore forecast zone). Waves will be much more tame, 2 feet or less Sunday into Sunday night. && Hydrology... issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Where we have had recent snowmelt and heavier rains, across central lower Michigan streamflow is elevated. In fact, we have river flood warnings out at Bridgeton and Newaygo on the Muskegon. Most other river forecast points are showing elevated flows as well, north of the Grand River basin. Even in the grand basin, some sites are out of bank, but not yet to flood stage including Ionia and Maple Rapids. It will likely take another 1 to 3 days before we see river levels falling once again. Rain will back up into lower Michigan once again late tonight and into Saturday. Model data suggests a half to one inch may be possible in the far southeast towards Jackson. This should not affect river levels too much. Additional rainfall is expected from Monday into Tuesday as a warm front will be situated near the area and finally a low moving through. Another round of rain is possible towards the end of the upcoming work week. The bottom line is we remain in a somewhat active pattern with additional chances for rain. Significant river flooding is not expected in the next 5-7 days, but elevated flows will likely continue as we receive additional rain in spots. && GRR watches/warnings/advisories... Michigan...none. Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for lmz844>849. && $$

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