Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kgsp 240736 afdgsp Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 336 am EDT Fri may 24 2019 Synopsis... broad high pressure will persist over the southeast through at least the early part of next week. This will limit daily shower and thunderstorm activity and aid in promoting near record heat. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 230 am edt: Mountain Valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere will dissipate relatively quickly this morning. A strong upper ridge builds over the area today and remains tonight. Despite some moderate instability developing across the area today, with the building ridge, level of free convection levels are quite high with some capping in place across the area. There could be a weak boundary dropping toward the area from the convection to our north. However, low level convergence is weak. Some of the convection allowing models are triggering good convective coverage. This seems unlikely given the high lfc's and capping. Can't rule out some isolated convection though, but strong convection seems unlikely. Any convection that does develop will dissipate quickly with loss of heating. With the building ridge and increasing thickness values, highs will be quite a bit warmer than Thursday. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains and near 90 in the mountain valleys which will challenge records. Dew points will be modest keeping heat index values near or only slightly warmer than the temps. Lows will be around 10 degrees above normal. && Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 315 am friday: subtropical anticyclone will remain centered across the eastern Gulf of Mexico coast through the short term, with upper ridge axis nosing into the Carolinas through the period. The result will be a continuation of near-record heat through the weekend, with lower to mid 90s maxes expected in the Piedmont and foothills, and upper 80s in the mountain valleys. Diurnal convective chances will also be small and generally confined to the mountains. && Long term /Monday through Thursday/... as of 325 am friday: more of the same through at least the first half of the medium range, as the upper anticyclone gradually weakens and becomes increasingly centered over the Gulf of Mexico, but upper ridge axis remains in place over the region. Hot and (mostly) dry conditions will therefore continue through the middle of the week. By the end of next week, a major short wave trough is expected to eject from the central conus, which is forecast to break down the ridge over the east by Thursday and allow an associated cold front to make a run toward the forecast area. However, signals in current global model guidance suggest this is unlikely to bring widespread beneficial rainfall to the area. && Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/... at kclt and elsewhere: expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail thru period. The exception will be Mountain Valley fog and patchy fog outside of the mountains at the non-taf sites. It's still questionable if valley fog forms at kavl. Have gone with a tempo for MVFR for now. Otherwise, the upper ridge will continue to build today and tonight with vertical profiles looking less conducive to produce showers and thunderstorms. Surface winds become westerly with mixing during the morning. West-northwest develops at kclt and khky for the afternoon. Kavl will be north-northwest. Low end gusts are likely at kavl and possible elsewhere. There will be some afternoon cumulus which diminishes during the evening. Winds become northwest then light north. Outlook: morning Mountain Valley fog will be possible into early next week. Diurnal convective chances will be limited during this time due to the amplified upper ridge of high pressure. Confidence table... 07-13z 13-19z 19-01z 01-06z kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled taf issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation && Climate... records for 05-24 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 90 1939 57 1923 65 1953 36 1931 1903 kclt 95 1939 57 1923 71 1953 43 1931 1903 1903 kgsp 94 1962 60 1923 73 1953 41 1917 Records for 05-25 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 89 1896 57 1979 68 1953 39 1925 1963 kclt 95 1953 59 1923 73 1953 41 2013 1926 kgsp 96 1962 63 1963 72 1953 46 2005 1953 Records for 05-26 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 88 1989 59 1956 65 1982 34 1925 1916 1953 kclt 96 1926 64 1992 73 1998 45 1979 1963 kgsp 96 1953 60 1963 70 1989 45 1979 1926 1953 1912 Records for 05-27 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 93 1890 55 1961 68 1991 36 1961 kclt 96 1916 60 1901 77 1916 41 1961 kgsp 98 1916 65 1963 72 1991 43 1961 Records for 05-28 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 91 1941 57 1946 67 1991 35 1961 1914 kclt 97 1941 58 1968 72 1991 42 1961 1896 kgsp 100 1916 62 1901 71 1991 43 1907 1891 1984 1941 Records for 05-29 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 92 1941 53 1992 67 1991 40 1894 kclt 98 1941 58 1992 74 1914 48 1894 1971 kgsp 98 1941 54 1992 70 1991 44 1901 1944 1941 Records for 05-30 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 91 1969 56 1984 67 1941 40 1893 kclt 95 1918 64 1930 73 1991 47 1884 1898 1982 kgsp 95 1914 65 1934 72 1941 45 1893 Records for 05-31 Maximum temperature min temperature station high low high low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- kavl 91 1895 60 1889 65 1991 34 1984 1979 1953 kclt 97 1953 62 1967 73 1991 42 1984 1895 kgsp 98 1953 62 1938 71 2008 43 1984 && Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... Georgia...none. NC...none. SC...none. && $$ Synopsis...csh

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