Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 kgyx 241425 afdgyx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1025 am EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Synopsis... low pressure will move southeast through Maine today and into the Maritimes this evening. Weak high pressure will build in from the west late tonight and Thursday. High pressure will shift east Thursday night as and area of low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure will push into the region from the southwest on Friday and will slowly push east through the region Friday night and Saturday. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Saturday night and will shift east on Sunday as low pressure moves in from the west. Low pressure will move east through northern New England Sunday night and into the Maritimes on Monday. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 1025 am update...some minor adjustments to the going forecast at this hour, mainly for temperatures and sky cover going forward this afternoon. Significant breaks in the cloud cover are currently being observed across portions of southern New Hampshire which should allow temperatures to get a decent boost there. However, with cold temperatures aloft any clearing across the rest of the region will probably be short-lived. Some drizzle may continue at the coast along with sct showers across the north (maybe even some snow showers at higher elevations) as a short wave trough moves through. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/... clouds will gradually diminish tonight as an area of weak high pressure builds in from the west. Low temperatures will range through the 30s across most of the forecast area to near 40 in the far south. High pressure will crest over the region early Thursday before shifting east. Looking for a mix of sun and fair weather clouds through the day. High temperatures will range through the 50s in western Maine and lower to mid 60s in New Hampshire. && Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 00z guidance in relatively good agreement bringing an area of low pressure towards northern New England late Friday and Friday night. Boundary layer temperatures and temperatures aloft will be sufficiently warm to allow for the precipitation to remain in the form of rain Friday night. Colder and somewhat drier air returns to the region behind the departing system on Saturday. However, the Canadian model remains an outlier and allows for rapid intensification Saturday as the low pressure system crosses eastern Maine. For now, will lean towards more progressive solution that allows for upslope rain showers in the mountains, which turn to snow showers by Saturday night. Any brief periods of sunshine on Sunday will be replaced by increasing clouds during the day as another fast moving area of low pressure approaches from the west. This will allow for more rain Sunday night with the precipitation mixing with snow across the high terrain. Canadian high pressure will then slowly build over the region. This will bring dry, but seasonably cool conditions for the beginning of next week. && Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... short term...MVFR/IFR ceilings...improving to VFR downwind of the mountains late this morning and early afternoon. VFR tonight with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Thursday. Long term...ceilings and visibilities lowering to IFR in rain and fog Friday afternoon and Friday night. A gusty westerly wind will bring drier air into the region Saturday. IFR conditions redeveloping Sunday night in showers. && Marine... short term...dropping sca's for seas. Expect winds to remain light over the waters through Thursday. Long term...winds and seas increase Friday night due to a southerly flow ahead of an area of low pressure. Winds remain gusty into the weekend behind the departing system. && Hydrology... area rivers will remain high through Thursday as mild temperatures contribute to snowmelt in the mountains and foothills. Flood warnings remain in effect for the northern Connecticut River and the Androscoggin river in New Hampshire. The Kennebec river in western Maine also remains above flood stage. More rain toward the end of the week and over the weekend will likely result in more flooding on area rivers and will be monitored closely. && Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... ME...none. New Hampshire...none. Marine...none.

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