Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 210540 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 1140 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 ..updated aviation discussion... Short term...(this evening through Saturday night) issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 We could see some patchy fog develop over the snow pack areas tonight as decent melting has moistened up the low levels combined with light winds. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows short wave energy over the baja region which will race across central Kansas on Thursday. Mid-level warm advection could generate some light rain showers for parts of central Kansas Thursday afternoon. Heading into Friday models show moisture increasing in the low levels, and looks like drizzle could develop by Friday afternoon as isentropic lift increases in the 285-295k layer. Otherwise the focus will shift to a developing storm system across the western states per latest satellite water vapor imagery. This system will continue to deepen then eject eastward into the Central Plains for late Friday night into Saturday. Models show ingredients coming together for a high impact winter weather system to affect the region. There are some differences between GFS/ECMWF/can models on the forecasted track of this system, and we expect some oscillations with later model runs on the forecast track/timing. Confidence is increasing for mainly western/central Kansas to be impacted. Steep mid-level lapse rates co-located with some elevated instability over central Kansas could give way to occasional convective snow with 1-2"/hr snow fall rates possible. In addition, gefs standardized anomalies for 850mb winds are running 3-4 deviations above normal which means the surface winds could be extremely strong. Adding the two up supports possible blizzard conditions with this weather system. Southeast Kansas could see a few strong thunderstorms with small hail possible for Saturday afternoon. Long term...(sunday through wednesday) issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 Seeing lots of variability between GFS/European model (ecmwf) models on handling of weather pattern for next week. GFS model is warmer with southerly winds returning for Monday/Tuesday. Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) model keeps the cold air locked in place across Kansas with well below normal temperatures and dry weather. Colder than normal temperatures seem more likely this period. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night) issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 The main aviation concerns over the next 24 hours will be the potential for fog early this morning, and then MVFR ceilings possible in central Kansas towards the end of the period. A challenging aviation forecast for visibilities this issuance as patchy br development has begun much earlier than expected from the previous forecast. Visibilities over areas that received the most snow Tuesday night remain the biggest challenge, especially at khut where they have bounced around between 4sm to 3/4sm and then back up to 3sm all within the past hour. For this issuance, have included tempo groups at ksln, kict, and khut to account for the patchy fog potential. Winds out of the southeast will remain fairly light throughout the early morning, then pick up somewhat during the afternoon hours. By the end of the period, generally after 00z, expect MVFR cloud cigs to work back into central Kansas, along with potential for low-level wind shear. -Vaughan && Fire weather... issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 Fresh snowpack along with upcoming precipitation chances and colder temperatures will keep fire weather concerns low for several days. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 19 44 32 44 / 0 10 0 30 Hutchinson 18 42 30 43 / 0 10 0 30 Newton 19 43 30 43 / 0 10 0 30 Eldorado 20 45 31 45 / 0 10 0 30 Winfield-kwld 20 47 32 46 / 0 10 0 40 Russell 16 39 29 41 / 0 20 10 30 Great Bend 17 40 30 43 / 0 20 0 30 Salina 16 41 28 42 / 0 20 0 20 McPherson 17 41 29 42 / 0 20 0 20 Coffeyville 24 54 32 49 / 0 0 0 30 Chanute 21 49 30 46 / 0 0 0 30 Iola 20 47 29 45 / 0 0 0 20 Parsons-kppf 23 51 32 49 / 0 0 0 30 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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