Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 190005 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 705 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Synopsis... issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Weather across the Continental U.S. Today has been dominated by the deep mid/upper trough that is currently situated over the eastern plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front extends from central Texas through the Mississippi and Ohio valleys and into the Great Lakes region. Convection along and ahead of this front has resulted in severe storms in the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southeast U.S. Where tornadoes and widespread damaging winds will be possible through the rest of the day. Closer to home across Kansas, northwesterly flow on the back side of the mid/upper trough in concert with marginal moisture availability and cold air advection aloft has initiated some scattered "popcorn" showers/thunderstorms across western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and northern/central Kansas as of 19z. -Vaughan && Short term...(this evening through Saturday night) issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 The main highlight of the short term forecast across central, south central, and southeast Kansas will be chances for continued diurnal showers and occasional thunderstorms in central and south central Kansas for the rest of the afternoon and early evening. With minimal 0-3km MUCAPE, the mention of thunder (primarily before 00z) is warranted along with the potential for gusty winds and small hail, but particularly strong or severe storms are not expected. Given the scattered nature of the showers/thunder, any heavy rainfall would be very brief so not much in the way of additional widespread rainfall accumulation is to be expected either. Since the activity is diurnally driven, it should wane after sunset as skies begin to clear quickly late this evening and overnight tonight. As the upper trough exits further to the east tomorrow, a surface ridge will slide across the Southern Plains and allow for clear skies across the County Warning Area. By Saturday, return flow winds will flip back around to blow out of the south allowing temperatures to heat up to above normal values, ranging from the mid 70s in southeast Kansas to the low 80s in central Kansas. -Vaughan Long term...(sunday through thursday) issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 A more unsettled pattern returns to Kansas on Sunday and will last through at least the first half of next week. Multiple waves will ripple across the central U.S. Ahead of a deep upper level low that will intensify over the southwest U.S. Throughout the rest of the period. The first looks to be a fairly weak disturbance that will quickly move across Kansas on Sunday. The latest European model (ecmwf) and NAM, however, hold off on precip initiation until later in the evening on Sunday. As a result, have backed off on pops for Easter Sunday until after 00z, and even still feel pops could be a little overdone between 00z and 06z Monday (sunday evening) if the slower trend continues to show in models. Better chances for periodic showers and thunderstorms will come late Sunday night into Monday and again Monday night-Wednesday. As the previous discussion mentioned, confidence is fairly low regarding the specifics for each day/time frame next week, but overall confidence is much higher in the general trend of off- and-on rain chances with some thunderstorms throughout the week. Will continue to make tweaks to the forecast with latest information over the next couple of days. Despite some variation, temperatures will hover near-normal throughout the week next week. -Vaughan && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 At 00z, an intense sfc cyclone was centered over srn AR, leaving all of Kansas in a fairly strong northwest/north flow as evidenced by sustained speeds ~20kts with ~30kt gusts. Widely scattered rain showers are causing problems with localized sustained 25-35kt speeds & 40-50kt gusts. Where rain showers are occurring 2-3sm vsbys are likely. By 02z, winds would greatly diminish to ~13kts & rain showers would dissipate as airmass stabilizes. All areas would be VFR from 02z Onward. && Fire weather... issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Recent rainfall and scattered shower/thunderstorm activity will keep fire weather concerns low today through the weekend despite slightly elevated winds, lower relative humidity values, and warmer temperatures on Saturday. Heading into next week, multiple rounds of showers and storms will keep fire weather concerns in check through at least the next seven days. -Vaughan && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 41 67 43 77 / 30 0 0 0 Hutchinson 40 67 43 78 / 30 0 0 0 Newton 40 66 43 76 / 30 0 0 0 Eldorado 41 66 43 77 / 30 0 0 0 Winfield-kwld 42 67 44 77 / 20 0 0 0 Russell 37 68 44 83 / 20 0 0 0 Great Bend 37 68 44 82 / 20 0 0 0 Salina 39 68 43 80 / 30 0 0 0 McPherson 39 67 43 78 / 30 0 0 0 Coffeyville 44 66 41 75 / 20 0 0 0 Chanute 43 65 41 74 / 10 0 0 0 Iola 42 64 41 74 / 10 0 0 0 Parsons-kppf 43 66 41 74 / 20 0 0 0 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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