Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 230445 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 1145 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 Synopsis... issued at 259 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 There is a ridge over the plains with a trough moving along the central U.S. And Canadian border as well as over the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. remnants of a mesoscale convective system left cloud cover to start the day across the eastern half of the Sunflower state into Oklahoma. Afternoon heating helped diminish the cloud cover making way for ample sunshine, winds of 5 to 10 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s thru the mid afternoon. && Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night) issued at 259 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 Challenges: precipitation chances tonight into Monday An 850mb trough could spark shower and thunderstorm development this evening over the High Plains which may just make it into central Kansas late tonight or early Monday morning. Confidence is not high in this occurrence given the latest guidance which only suggests slight chances at this time. Western Kansas appears to have the better chance. The pattern regime of a trough across the U.S./Canadian border and the eastern third of the Continental U.S. Stays in place for the first part of the work week keeping high pressure over the western Continental U.S.. such a pattern keeps high temperatures near seasonal normal values in the lower 90s which will certainly be a relief compared to the past couple of weeks. Long term...(wednesday through sunday) issued at 259 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 Challenges: chances for precipitation for the latter part of the week into next weekend The trough off to the north will begin to move southeast on Wednesday which will put the plains in a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week into the weekend. An active period is anticipated as mentioned in the previous discussions. Currently the expectation is a mesoscale convective system each evening/overnight from Wednesday night through Saturday night. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout this time period given the instability parameters. There is not going to be a continuous presence of precipitation activity. It is still expected to be on and off. Flooding could be a concern as mentioned previously with precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches for this time period. The thunderstorm activity in it of itself could produce localized flooding; however, multiple days of this activity could lead to additional flooding issues or a quicker onset for it to occur depending on amounts and the area in which this occurs. Drought does persist across much of the area though with roughly 5 to just shy of 10 inches of rainfall below the seasonal normal values. This is a point in the forecast to watch with updates in the model guidance. Adjustments were made in this forecast issuance in the precipitation chances field due to such adjustments in guidance. Wednesday is forecast to be the relative hot day of the week with high temperatures in the lower 90s. Temperature wise this forecast is arguably stellar comparatively to the couple of weeks with afternoon highs around 90 degrees for several days in a row which will be a nice change of pace. Outdoor activities may flourish even more even with possibly wet surfaces. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night) issued at 1138 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs as surface high pressure continues to dominate over central and eastern Kansas. Light easterly winds will switch to the north during the late morning and afternoon hours on Monday. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 71 90 70 91 / 10 10 0 0 Hutchinson 69 88 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 Newton 68 89 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 Eldorado 68 89 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-kwld 70 89 69 91 / 10 10 0 0 Russell 69 89 66 89 / 20 20 0 0 Great Bend 68 88 66 89 / 20 20 0 0 Salina 70 90 68 91 / 10 10 0 0 McPherson 68 88 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 Coffeyville 69 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 67 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 67 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-kppf 68 89 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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