Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 221141 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 641 am CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Short term...(today through Thursday night) issued at 218 am CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 With the exception of rain chances Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, fairly quiet weather is expected across the region the next 7 days. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue across the region today, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. For Tuesday, the influence of Canadian high pressure behind a weak cool front will support slightly cooler readings, although still in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Model and ensemble consensus continues to support increasing rain chances Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, likely most widespread generally west of the Flint Hills, as shortwave energy approaches from the southwest. Main forecast change was to slow down the onset of rain, with best chances Wednesday night. Lack of deep moisture and associated instability owing to a disturbance anchored along the Gulf of Mexico coast should prevent widespread heavy rain, with rainfall amounts likely one-half inch or less for most. The increased clouds and precipitation will likely hold high temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees for most areas Wednesday and Thursday. Long term...(friday through sunday) issued at 218 am CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 For Friday afternoon/evening, a fast-moving shortwave in northwest flow aloft may provide enough focus for a few showers across mainly eastern Kansas. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected over the weekend into early next week, as upper ridging approaches from the west. Seasonable temperatures in the 60s will likely prevail, along with mostly sunny skies. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning) issued at 640 am CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 A weak cold front will sag in its "customary" southeast manner across Kansas throughout the day. The front will slowly dissipate as it nears the OK line late this afternoon. Airmass remains dry, so all taf sites would remain VFR with clear skies & excellent vsbys. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 72 47 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 71 46 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 70 47 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Eldorado 71 47 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-kwld 73 47 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 69 44 65 45 / 0 0 0 10 Great Bend 71 45 66 46 / 0 0 0 10 Salina 70 44 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 71 46 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 70 45 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 69 45 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 69 45 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-kppf 70 45 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. &&

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