Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 222340 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 640 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 ..updated aviation discussion... Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night) issued at 324 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 Water vapor imagery shows upper low spinning over northern Arkansas/southern MO with with showers continuing to rotate around the low over southern MO into southeast Kansas. Precip will come to an end this evening over southeast Kansas as the upper low continues to track east into the Tennessee Valley. Should finally see some sunshine Mon as we get into a brief period of subsidence behind the departing wave. However, this will be short-lived as models remain consistent diving an upper impulse out of the northern rockies and out into the northern plains by Tue morning. There is very good agreement with the models tracking this wave across central Kansas Tue evening. Confidence is increasing that we will see some showers as this impulse/cold front moves through the area Tue afternoon through Tue night. Confidence is also high that we are not going to see any severe storms with this wave and maybe hard pressed to see any thunder given the lack of moisture. Some of the showers may linger into Wed morning as the upper energy moves into OK. Another shortwave will quickly follow on the heels of the Tue system with decent model agreement in it tracking out of southern Canada and into the northern plains Wed night. After Wed night, European model (ecmwf) and GFS start to diverge on the handling of this wave. The European model (ecmwf) remains consistent in digging the energy further west compared to the GFS which would be a wetter solution for US. Right snow have a slight lean to the European model (ecmwf) considering it initially did better with the Tue system and also has some support from the Canadian. So will leave the small pops in Thu the initialization give US. Long term...(friday through sunday) issued at 324 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 Attention for these extended periods will turn to the progression of another upper low set to come on shore over northern California by Sat. The European model (ecmwf) keeps this wave consolidated into one piece of energy, while the GFS brings it out in a couple difference pieces. For now will leave the weekend dry with the hopes they come into better agreement. Confidence is fairly high that we will be looking at a warming trend this weekend, with highs in the 70s by Sat. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) issued at 632 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 As the upper low continues to track east, precipitation has ended at all sites as of 00z, with the exception of a few lingering sprinkle chances at kcnu for a couple more hours (though did not include in the taf due to isolated nature). Cloud ceilings have reached VFR at all sites except kict and kcnu, which remain at MVFR for now. However, expecting ceilings to continue to rise and flight conditions will gradually improve tonight and into tomorrow. Winds will generally be out of the north/northeast and should be fairly light throughout the period. && Fire weather... issued at 324 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 Fire danger concerns are expected to remain on the low side for the next several days. Northerly winds will gradually come around to the northeast and east Mon. Another cold front is then expected to push through Tue into Tue night with some showers expected along it. This scenario will keep below normal temps in place and relatively light winds. In addition, recent rains should allow grasses to finally start to green up a bit more which will also help mitigate fire danger concerns. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 45 72 47 69 / 10 0 0 20 Hutchinson 44 71 45 66 / 0 0 0 30 Newton 44 71 46 67 / 10 0 0 20 Eldorado 45 71 46 70 / 10 0 0 20 Winfield-kwld 45 72 46 71 / 10 0 0 20 Russell 41 71 44 61 / 0 0 10 50 Great Bend 41 71 45 61 / 0 0 10 50 Salina 44 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 40 McPherson 44 71 44 66 / 0 0 0 30 Coffeyville 48 71 46 73 / 20 10 0 10 Chanute 47 71 46 72 / 20 10 0 10 Iola 46 70 46 72 / 20 10 0 10 Parsons-kppf 48 71 47 73 / 20 10 0 10 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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