Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 231132 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 632 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Short term...(today through Thursday night) issued at 329 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Periodic rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are likely today across mainly southern/southeast Kansas, as weak to modest 850- 700mb warm/moist advection commences in response to shortwave energy approaching from the southwest. Instability, moisture and forcing are not overly impressive, so severe weather or heavy rain are unlikely, with most locations remaining under 0.25" total rainfall. Dense cloud cover will keep highs mostly in the low 60s, although thinner cloud cover across central and north-central Kansas should allow mid-upper 60s. For Wed-Wed night, could see a few lingering showers across far southeast Kansas, as an upper low progresses slowly over the Southern Plains, along with an elongated trough approaching from the west. The NAM is most bullish with southeast Kansas rain chances compared to the other deterministic models, so only ran with low pops at this juncture. Temperature-wise, at least partial sunshine will support highs reaching the 70s Wed. Model suite suggests the potential for a few showers & thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly along/west of I-135, as 800-600mb warm/moist advection commences ahead of an advancing western Continental U.S. Eml. Lack of quality moisture/instability should preclude severe storms. Kleinsasser Long term...(friday through monday) issued at 329 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Somewhat better thunderstorm chances may arrive Friday night- Saturday morning across mainly eastern and northeast Kansas, in response to strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection south of a potent northern plains shortwave. Despite marginal instability, decent lift and cloud- bearing shear could support a few strong to marginally severe storms. GFS and European model (ecmwf) support another round of potential thunderstorms Sunday night-Monday morning, due to strong 850-700mb warm/moist advection ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The best focus at this time looks to be across northern/northeast KS, although minor model fluctuations could shift this threat south. Combination of increasing cloud-bearing shear, instability and forcing would probably support strong-severe storms. Stay tuned. While there still remains quite a bit of model uncertainty, overall model consensus supports the potential for another round or two of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, as a wobbly frontal zone lays out across the region in concert with potent shortwave energy approaching from the southwest. Uncertainty is high regarding the exact placement of various synoptic features, but the overall synoptic pattern in concert with the expected magnitude of moisture/instability and deep layer shear would support severe storms. Stay tuned. Temperature-wise, mostly above normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected late week through early next week. Kleinsasser && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) issued at 627 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 A shortwave trough lifting out of the southern High Plains will bring periodic rain showers to southern Kansas today. MVFR will prevail through much of the day with VFR returning to central Kansas by afternoon. VFR will expand eastward into south central Kansas this evening but MVFR cigs may linger across southeast Kansas into much of the overnight hours. && Fire weather... issued at 329 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Recent rainfall in concert with well underway green-up should support relatively low fire weather concerns the next several days. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 61 48 72 49 / 60 20 10 10 Hutchinson 63 45 73 47 / 30 20 0 10 Newton 61 46 71 48 / 40 20 0 10 Eldorado 60 49 70 50 / 60 20 10 10 Winfield-kwld 60 48 70 50 / 70 20 10 10 Russell 68 43 76 47 / 10 10 0 0 Great Bend 67 42 75 46 / 10 10 0 0 Salina 67 46 75 47 / 10 10 0 0 McPherson 64 45 73 47 / 20 20 0 0 Coffeyville 62 52 69 53 / 60 30 20 20 Chanute 61 52 69 52 / 60 30 20 10 Iola 60 52 69 52 / 60 30 10 10 Parsons-kppf 61 52 69 53 / 60 30 20 20 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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