Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kict 180429 afdict Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 1129 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Short term...(this evening through Thursday night) issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Forecast highlight(s): severe thunderstorms capable of all modes to impact most areas Tue & Tue night. This evening: a weak mid-level low that remains situated over The Corners of NE OK, northwest Arkansas & southeast MO may provide just enough lift to 'spark' a few thunderstorms over southeast Kansas. Should the thunderstorms develop, they would dissipate around sunset. Overnight: a mid-level shortwave that'll develop from southeast Wyoming to NE Colorado will slowly strengthen as it drifts across the Colorado/Kansas border. Thunderstorms that have already developed along the Colorado/Kansas border will spread slowly east & may reach as far as Lincoln & Ellsworth counties by daybreak. The thunderstorms may produce penny-sized hail and 40-50 mph winds. Tue & Tue night: these periods cause the greatest concern. The mid-level shortwave crossing the Colorado/Kansas border will continue to strengthen as it moves along the Kansas/Nebraska border. This would induce warm frontogenesis along the Kansas/Nebraska border on Tue along which a moisture pool would increase. All would combine with ample heating to induce thunderstorms to increase considerably, especially across northern & central Kansas. The mid-level shortwave & the presence of the warm front would induce markedly increasing deep-layer shear across KS, especially the directional variant. Thunderstorms are likely to be severe with hail around the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds, heavy-very heavy rains & a few tornadoes across all of the central third of Kansas. As such the "severe" descriptor has been extended north across all of central Kansas. As the mid-level shortwave crosses the Kansas/MO border Tue night, the warm front would evolve into a weak cold front that'll scoot southeast across Kansas Tue night. The greatest thunderstorm potential would likewise shift slowly east/southeast later Tue night. Flooding already occurred across much of SC & southeast Kansas from Sat night to last night & with moisture content continuing to increase across the eastern half of Kansas the heavy rain potential would likewise continue to increase. A flood/Flash Flood Watch was considered for all areas as far west as I-35/I-135 for Tue night but this would've caused collaboration issues. The flood/flash flood threat will be strongly worded in the severe weather potential statement. Wed-Thu night: thunderstorms will become much more scattered as focusing mechanisms diminish. Long term...(friday through monday) issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Long range models show a decent cold front pushing across Kansas next weekend. This would increase thunderstorm chances along with severe weather potential given very unstable airmass and stronger winds aloft on Saturday. Frontal position/timing is more uncertain for Sunday. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Except for some patchy MVFR stratus and fog early Tuesday morning in southeast Kansas, VFR conditions expected across the rest of the forecast area. Elevated convection is expected to move into or develop across central Kansas Tuesday morning, though the greater risk for surface based storms is expected along and west of the Kansas Turnpike late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Some of which could be severe. Ked && Hydrology... issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 The onsetting heavy-very heavy rains will cause most rivers to rise to the occasion. Further river flood warnings are possible so stay tuned. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 64 82 64 81 / 10 40 80 10 Hutchinson 64 81 62 79 / 20 50 80 10 Newton 63 80 63 78 / 10 40 80 10 Eldorado 62 80 64 79 / 10 30 80 20 Winfield-kwld 63 82 64 81 / 10 20 80 20 Russell 65 79 59 78 / 40 70 60 20 Great Bend 65 80 60 79 / 40 60 60 10 Salina 65 79 62 79 / 20 60 80 10 McPherson 64 80 62 78 / 20 50 80 10 Coffeyville 63 83 67 83 / 20 10 90 40 Chanute 62 82 65 81 / 20 20 90 40 Iola 62 82 65 81 / 20 20 90 40 Parsons-kppf 62 82 66 83 / 20 10 90 40 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. && $$

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