Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 190127 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 927 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Synopsis... a strong cold front brings a good chance of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Improving conditions are expected over the weekend, along with cooler temps. A warming trend along with mostly dry weather is expected into early next week as weak high pressure dominates. && Near term /through Friday night/... as of 10 PM major changes necessary to the previous forecast. Previous discussion... as of 300 PM Thursday...warm air advection to intensify overnight, keeping hourly temp curves elevated and nearly flat- lined after 3z tonight. No sea fog forecasted as SSTs have risen well recently. Too much wind for fog. The days of high shear and Low Cape are dwindling, as now we are beginning to get cape too. Dangerous situation taking shape as the primary squall threat rips through NE SC and southeast NC during and just after peak heating. Ambient winds outside of thunderstorms 50 knots a few thousand feet agl. Convergence offshore in the morning will direct rain showers, and isolated tstms into the Cape Fear region and NE SC. A training potential here so low-end threat of Road ponding. Considered Wind Advisory and Flood Watch but short of criteria for both. Astronomical tides are running higher so combined with this storm system, we are apt to see high water run-up at all beaches with tomorrow's high tide and a coastal flood advisory may be needed along our coasts. && Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 300 PM Thursday...main front and vast amount of precip will be offshore by early Saturday morning. That said, lingering moisture along with cooling temps aloft may be enough to squeak out an isolated shower or two...though quantitative precipitation forecast would be very minimal. Otherwise, Saturday will be much more pleasant than Friday. Even though low level flow will be SW, thicknesses will drop considerably as cold upper low approaches and as a result, expect temps several degrees below normal in the mid to upper 60s. Any afternoon cu that develop Sat should diminish through the evening with loss of heating. Radiational cooling potential from clearing skies will be offset a bit by SW trending west flow not decoupling. Regardless, Saturday night will be coolest of entire forecast package with lows mostly in mid to upper 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s closer to coast. Cold upper low will swing by to the north during Sunday and gradually depart to the NE. This may lead to a few PM cu but given deep westerly flow, expect mostly pleasant weather with temps rebounding a bit with highs in the low to near mid 70s in places. Dry Sunday night with heights rising in wake of departing low...with lows in the low 50s inland to mid 50s coast. && Long term /Monday through Thursday/... as of 300 PM Thursday...quiet weather expected most of the long term although watching potential backdoor front late in the period. Ridging builds at all levels above weak surface high pressure pattern Monday and Tuesday. This pattern generally persists through Wednesday...before a potential backdoor front impacts the area into Thursday. Will keep some low end pops at the end of the forecast to account for this, but confidence in specifics is presently low given timing differences amongst the major models. Otherwise, this pattern should lead to plenty of sunshine and above normal temps next week. && Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/... as of 00z...VFR during the first 6-hour period with only a few CI clouds across the area. Showers will feed in off of the marine layer during the morning, especially at coastal terminals; a few rumbles of thunder are possible. MVFR cigs will accompany the showers as a strong low-level moisture feed develops. MVFR conditions will likely hang on through much of the morning and early afternoon, but showers should clear the area around noon. A low-level jet developing ahead of an approaching line of strong thunderstorms during the afternoon will bring the possibility of low level wind shear across the region and a brief window of VFR conditions. Thunderstorms will enter the area toward the end of the forecast period and push eastward through 06z Saturday bringing MVFR conditions and heavy rain/wind. Winds throughout the period will be from the south at 10-15 knots increasing to around 20-25 knots with gusts near 30 knots during the day on Friday. Extended outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions likely from showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front thru Fri evening. MVFR should give way to VFR conditions by early Saturday morning and continuing thru Tue. && Marine... as of 300 PM Thursday...marine conditions to worsen and become dangerous, as gales are likely Friday and Friday night, seas 8-14 feet. A line of strong thunderstorms with race across the waters Friday night from west to east. Friday morning marine showers and isolated tstms will move toward the coast and Cape Fear region. S waves the dominant the ocean energy through Friday night. After Friday/Friday night's gale conditions, small craft conditions will take over through Saturday with fresh to strong SW flow along with 9-10s south-southwest waves around 6-10ft Saturday morning subsiding a few feet through the evening. Expect winds/waves to come down below small craft levels through Saturday night and Sunday morning. That said, a mix of lingering southeast swell and short period SW wind waves of 3-5ft will persist, with the highest seas off Cape Fear. This will keep an elevated rip current risk through the weekend, with the greatest threat at south facing beaches on Saturday. Much better marine conditions will develop early to mid next week as weak high pressure dominates the area. Watching potential for backdoor front around late Wednesday/Thursday which could lead to a brief period of north/NE winds. Confidence is low on that at this time given timing differences amongst the major models. && Tides/coastal flooding... minor coastal flooding for the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward will occur around successive evening high tides tonight through Sat night. Minor flooding will occur within a 2 to 3 hour window centered around each evening high tide. The peak levels at each high tide will range between 5.7 to 6.1 ft MLLW. The exception will be Friday evening's high tide which is forecast to peak just below moderate coastal flooding thresholds which is 6.7 ft MLLW. Evening high tides: Thu 10:03 PM EDT. Fri 10:52 PM EDT. Sat 11:10 PM EDT. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...beach hazards statement from 6 am EDT Friday through Friday evening for scz054-056. NC...beach hazards statement from 6 am EDT Friday through Friday evening for ncz106-108. Coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz107. High rip current risk from 6 am EDT Friday through Friday evening for ncz110. Marine...Gale Warning from 8 am Friday to 2 am EDT Saturday for amz250- 252-254-256. && $$ Synopsis...mcw near term...dch/mjc/mas

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