Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 231917 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will dominate through Thursday with warm, dry and breezy conditions. An approaching front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure returns for the weekend, and another cold front expected early next week. && Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 300 PM Tuesday...high pressure will bring warm and dry conditions area wide for the short term period. South to southwest winds will advect warm air tonight into Wednesday, which will bring chances for afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal. && Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/... as of 300 PM Tuesday...high pressure exits offshore ans low pressure returns overland, which will bring breezy southwest winds across the forecast area. Due to strong warm air advection, afternoon highs Thursday can be expected in the mid to upper 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal for late April. Some scattered showers begin to move into the coastal plain sometime Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west, but any developing precipitation should be light Thursday night with little to no accumulation. && Long term /Friday through Tuesday/... as of 300 PM Tuesday...active weather period ahead for Friday as a cold front approaches from the west through the day. Latest model guidance has a moderate amount of instability energy aloft, although the wind shear is at time is marginal at best. Expecting some pulse convection along the front as it moves through the region Friday, with some of the stronger storms producing high wind gusts with plenty of dry air aloft. Showers and thunderstorms should wind down Friday evening as the front passes and another high pressure settles into the forecast area. High pressure system is expected to pass directly overhead and bring a cooler airmass with afternoon highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is closer to normal for late April. Temperatures will slowly rebound Sunday into early next week. The next approaching cold front may arrive early next week, and will bring increasing winds and more chances for precipitation. && Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/... as of 18z....another beautiful afternoon with bright sunshine and light west winds. High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon with southerly winds expected. Light southwest flow tonight. Winds at the boundary layer are likely too strong to support fog. Wednesday, continued warm air advection with nearly clear skies. Extended outlook...VFR conditions to persist thru much of the extended period. A frontal boundary is progged to partially back- door late Wed into Thu before lifting back north. Could see MVFR from shra during Fri as low pressure passes by south of the eastern Carolinas. $$ Marine... as of 300 PM Tuesday...relatively quiet offshore for the rest of today into tonight with south/southwest winds 10 to 15 kts and wave heights between 2 and 4 feet on the high end. Southeast swell between 8 and 10 seconds expected through Wednesday. As high pressure moves offshore Wednesday, tightening pressure gradient could bring increasing southwest winds offshore and marginal small craft conditions each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Chances for small craft conditions are higher Friday ahead of the approaching cold front that could bring increasing waves between 4 and 6 feet and southwest winds 15 to 20 kts. Southwest wave directions will be the primary direction Wednesday through Friday between 6 and 8 seconds. Conditions will quiet offshore for the weekend with another high pressure system moving across the region. Waves between 2 and 4 feet at 5 to 7 second periods for the weekend with variable winds between 10 and 15 kts. The next chances for small craft conditions and higher would potentially be early next week as another cold front approaches and brings increasing winds and waves. && Marine... as of 300 PM Tuesday...relatively quiet offshore for the rest of today into tonight with south/southwest winds 10 to 15 kts and wave heights between 2 and 4 feet on the high end. Southeast swell between 8 and 10 seconds expected through Wednesday. As high pressure moves offshore Wednesday, tightening pressure gradient could bring increasing southwest winds offshore and marginal small craft conditions each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Chances for small craft conditions are higher Friday ahead of the approaching cold front that could bring increasing waves between 4 and 6 feet and southwest winds 15 to 20 kts. Southwest wave directions will be the primary direction Wednesday through Friday between 6 and 8 seconds. Conditions will quiet offshore for the weekend with another high pressure system moving across the region. Waves between 2 and 4 feet at 5 to 7 second periods for the weekend with variable winds between 10 and 15 kts. The next chances for small craft conditions and higher would potentially be early next week as another cold front approaches and brings increasing winds and waves. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...none. NC...none. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...mck

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