Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 211747 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1247 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 Synopsis... a coastal front will continue to weaken through the afternoon. A cold front will move through tonight, allowing cooler high pressure to return Friday and Saturday. Warm weather is expected during Sunday ahead of another cold front that will move off the coast Sunday evening. The front will be followed by high pressure for early next week. && Near term /through Friday/... as of 1215 PM Thursday...fog has eroded across much of the forecast area and this trend will continue. Bulk of clouds will affect far northwestern zones through the afternoon. Areas farther east will continue to warm quickly with good insolation this afternoon. Expect fog will return tonight ahead of the front with increasing chances of rain tonight into Friday. Made some adjustments with the latest update to account for the warming temperatures and removal of fog over land. Previous discussion...ample low-level moisture is in place, and it is generally confined from the surface to around 850 mb per the 1200 UTC coastal raobs. This moisture coupled with light flow within the inversion continues to support areas of fog. Conditions will gradually improve allowing temperatures to warm into the 60s, however it will be a struggle far inland areas where temperatures are currently in the mid 40s. Other than some -dz over the next couple hours the main emphasis of rainfall for the remainder of today will be west of the forecast area. Deterioration, low clouds and rain tonight into Friday as a southward sinking cold front helps saturate an already damp low- level, while providing convergence for nice rain chances and ushering falling air temperatures. There is a decrease in absolute humidity behind the front so tds to lower in wake of the front. Highest 1- meter winds Friday averaging 12 knots in early afternoon in most cramped pressure gradient during this period. Quantitative precipitation forecast overall this period, low-end, yet enough to wet everything very well. && Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/... as of 300 am Thursday...high pressure wedge remains in place at the surface Friday night but south-southwest flow and warm advection develops aloft. The resulting isentropic upglide will bring clouds and light rain; the higher rainfall amounts remaining to our north near the 850mb baroclinic zone. The ridge weakens considerably on saturday; sufficiently so that the isentropic upglide nearly ceases, yet its continued presence means that high temp forecast has to be lowered. A continued weakening of The Wedge will finally allow for light southerly winds Saturday night minimizing the overall diurnal range as lows stay elevated into the mid 50s. && Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... as of 300 am Thursday...a thin ribbon of moisture will accompany a cold front on Sunday while weak mid level forcing keeps quantitative precipitation forecast prospects from being anything other than seemingly meager. Low amplitude aloft while high pressure progresses by to our north Monday and Tuesday. Warm advection clouds and rain chances return on Wednesday. && Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... as of 18z...conditions are gradually improving across the area as The Wedge erodes. IFR/MVFR cigs will continue for a couple more hours at kflo/klbt. The return of IFR cigs is likely tonight with ample low-level moisture and light winds ahead of the next cold front. Chances for -dz/rain will also increase overnight. Extended outlook...front lingering in the area will lead to more IFR ceilings and/or vsbys Friday into Saturday as another round of overrunning rain develops. Sub-VFR will likely prevail early Sunday before another cold front pushes through lifting to VFR late Sunday and Monday. && Marine... as of 1215 PM Thursday...areas of fog will persist with warm/moist air across cool shelf waters. Have extended the dense fog advisory across the waters through much of the afternoon. The fog will possible plague the coastal waters again tonight ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, light and variable wind will continue while seas are be dominated by swells. Previous discussion for Friday night through Saturday night: gradient remains pinched Friday night between overland high pressure wedge and trough associated with frontal boundary off the coast; likely sufficiently to where advisory will be needed. The gradient will ease Saturday as The Wedge weakens and guidance has shown its usual bias in doing to a bit too quickly. NE winds will last all through Saturday but speeds will drops as should wave height. The front finally lifts through Saturday night as The Wedge finally dissipates. Slight southerly flow will become predominant initially, then ramping up in speed during the latter half of the night. Sunday and monday: advisory-worthy prefrontal regime slated for Sunday. Decreasing and veering winds behind the front Sunday night will allow seas to settle and all flags will be dropped. North to NE winds on Monday as the high builds in behind the front; seas will continue to wane. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...none. NC...none. Marine...dense fog advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for amz250- 252-254-256. && $$

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