Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 230824 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 324 am EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Synopsis... a warm front will approach from the south today but generally stall near the coast. Warmer weather is expected Sunday ahead of a cold front, that will cross the coast during Sunday evening. High pressure will build in through early next week with chances of rain increasing later Wednesday into Friday. && Near term /through Sunday/... as of 320 am Saturday...it's not very pretty when the pineapple express train runs over the toes of old man winter. One would see plentiful equatorial Pacific moisture streaming over a pool of chilly northern stream air, bringing a minimum in sunshine minutes, and yet, in this case, not all that much rain. A shallow hill temperature trace today, as readings climb slowly under clouds, struggling into the middle and upper 50s this afternoon, a little cooler north of a klbt to keyf line. Rain light, favored today mostly over southeast NC. Warm air advection ramps late Saturday, bringing nighttime temperature climbs into early Sunday, peaking in abnormal warmth Sunday afternoon, prior to cold frontal passage. Temperatures take a nice nose dive Sunday night, 30-35 degrees cooler daybreak Monday from the balminess of Sunday afternoon. As both T/TD surge Sunday afternoon, mu/ml cape take a jump, and frontal passage near peak heating will add boost to updrafts in concert with frontal convergence, and a rumble of thunder could pop, so slight chance inserted within this narrow window. With 850 winds near 50 knots at this time, not shocking if Storm Prediction Center upgrades the area to 'marginal' in time, instability aloft being perhaps a limiter in question, and extent of threat. A few record highs may be approached Sunday. && Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/... as of 300 am Saturday...Sunday night into early Monday will bring high pressure building in from the northwest at the surface while mid level flow is out of the west or west-northwest. This will favor clear skies while temperatures remain fairly seasonable. Later Monday a ridge axis builds in enough to all but shut down surface winds inhibiting any additional bl cool advection from reaching the surface even as the center of the high remains in the Great Lakes. Even so some radiational cooling will become favored and most places away from the immediate coast should dip below 40; generally about a category below the previous night. && Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... as of 300 am Saturday... an element of the long term that appears to offer some degree of certainty is the temperature forecast. Low amplitude flow not only locally but across much of the Continental U.S. Will mean fairly seasonable weather. Of less certainty is the chance for rain...though overall they will remain quite low since the aforementioned mid level flow will not favor deep layer moisture. Even so, some warm advection isentropic upglide will call for 20 pops on Wednesday as will a weak cold frontal passage on Thursday. Uncertainty grows on Friday as models show a flat wave of low pressure moving west to east across the area possibly bolstering rain chances. && Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/... as of 00z...IFR most if not all of taf cycle, with ceilings ovc003 to ovc009 through majority of period, exception, brief bkn012 in afternoon hours. Occasional dz/-ra and mist will reduce visibility to 2-4 sm mainly this morning, and favored from klbt to keyf to kilm. Lowering ceilings and visibility expected again late tonight, in light NE surface winds. NE winds through this morning 7-12 knots, with gusts at coastal terminals up to 18 knots, winds easing by afternoon. Extended outlook...sub-VFR will likely prevail early Sunday before another cold front pushes through lifting to VFR late Sunday through Wednesday. && Marine... near term /through Sunday/... As of 320 am Saturday...after a brief lull in wind late today and tonight, strong S-SW winds to follow in advance of an approaching and moderately strong cold front. A wind-shift across the waters to occur late Sunday and Small Craft Advisory flags are likely ahead of and behind the front. As a result, the wave spectrum will see decreasing NE waves today, then building SW wind-seas late Saturday and Sunday. Chaotic seas late Sunday night and early Monday when residual, large south-southwest waves, and NE wind seas on the uptick interact. Isolated tstms possible late Sunday with wind gusts even in showers up to 40 knots. Sunday night through Monday night... cold advection and well-aligned boundary layer flow will bring strong enough winds that an advisory will be needed. Flow remains out of the northwest on Monday but as pressures rise over SC/Georgia the gradient will ease allowing both wind and seas to drop below advisory thresholds. These rising pressures move further east into the local area later Monday into Monday night bringing light winds allowing seas to further settle. Tuesday through Wednesday...winds light and variable on Tuesday with high pressure moving overhead. With no swell energy to speak of seas will fall to minimal values. Uncertainty heading into Wednesday regarding whether return flow develops or a weak from moves through from the northwest as some major guidance holds its passage off until Thursday. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...none. NC...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for amz250-252-254-256. && $$ Synopsis...mbb

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