Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 241711 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 111 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will dominate through Thursday with warm, dry and breezy conditions. An approaching front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure returns for the weekend. Another cold front cross the region late Sunday, although rainfall chances with this front appear to be low. Seasonable weather will return early next week. && Near term /through Thursday/... as of 930 am Wednesday...not much change in the wx pattern tonight and Thursday with the surface high centered southeast of the area and mid-level ridging still over the area. No chance of precip with again just some high clouds. Low temps tonight in the low/mid 60s, and high temps Thursday ranging through the 80s. && Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/... as of 3 am Wednesday...flat 5h ridge axis will be off the coast Thu night with a weak shortwave riding up the west side of the ridge. Deep southwest flow starts spreading moisture northward at the same time, with potential for at least some isolated showers early Fri morning. Best chances though will be Fri afternoon and evening, just ahead of a cold front, when precipitable water reaches 1.5 inches and low level convergence peaks. Along with low level convergence, the low level jet will be on the order of 50 kt as convection starts moving into the area. Shortwave moving through the base of the 5h trough Fri afternoon/evening spreads positive vorticity advection over the area, enhancing limited surface based instability. Appears as though a broken line of convection will move across the area later Fri. At this point the threat for severe weather seems rather low and will really be dependent on how much instability can develop in the warm sector during the day. Cloud cover is likely to be extensive (even before daybreak) and highs will struggle to hit 80. Front moves off the coast by early evening with modified high pressure building in from the west. Skies clear in the wake of the 5h trough, but cold advection and pinched gradient will help keep the boundary layer mixed. Fri night lows end up near to slightly below climo. && Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 3 am Wednesday...little in the way of significant weather slatted for the long term. Flat mid-level flow in the wake of exiting trough Sat morning is interrupted by weak 5h trough sun into Mon. Flat flow returns next week as mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico starts to expand north. -High pressure Sat is displaced east by weak cold front Sun night. Warm advection pushes temps above climo for the weekend. -Lack of moisture return ahead of the front and weak nature of the 5h trough limits precip chances sun and Sun night. -Cooler and drier high pressure builds in from the northwest Mon. Modest cold advection drops temps near climo. -High pressure shifts off the mid Atlantic coast Tue with return flow leading to temps a little above climo. && Aviation /17z Wednesday through Sunday/... as of 18z...VFR conditions through the forecast period. Mid-level clouds developing this afternoon and holding on through Thursday morning in association with moisture along a trough of low pressure across central NC. Sea breeze at the coastal terminals this afternoon due to exceptional Continental heating. Otherwise, southwesterly winds 5-10 knots. Extended outlook...VFR conditions to persist. Could see MVFR on Fri as low pressure crosses the Carolinas. && Marine... as of 330 am Wednesday...sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Thursday. High pressure will remain centered S/southeast of the area with low pressure well off to the west. SW winds avg ~15 kt today/tonight, increasing to 15-20 kt Thursday aftn as the pressure gradient increases slightly. 2-4 ft seas through the period. Increasing southwest flow Thu night and Fri may require a low end Small Craft Advisory Fri into Fri night, before cold front moves offshore and westerly flow develops. Duration of any Small Craft Advisory associated with the front should be short lived as both winds and seas will be decreasing in the Post front regime. Weak surface high migrates across the waters Sat into sun with weakening northerly flow Sat Flipping to southerly for sun. Seas will drop to 3 ft or less Sat afternoon and remain 3 ft or less through sun. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...beach hazards statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for scz054- 056. NC...beach hazards statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for ncz106- 108. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...ilm

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