Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 231402 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1002 am EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Synopsis... surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas will shift off the coast later today and tonight. A weak cold front will drop south into North Carolina and may briefly stall across the forecast area before finally lifting back north Thu. Low pressure moving along the Gulf Coast states Thu will track east to off the Florida and GA coasts and offshore by late Fri. Dry high pressure will follow for the weekend. && Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 1000 am Monday...upper ridge axis extending from eastern Gulf of Mexico will extend across the forecast area thru tonight then flatten somewhat on Wed. Elongated center of sfc high pressure across the forecast area this morning, will push off the U.S. Southeast coast tonight and Wed. Sfc trof will extend across the Carolinas, ahead of a backdoor cold front that will stall around the NC-Virginia border during we. This a result of flow aloft becoming parallel to the cold front itself and ending it's push southward. Moisture convergence along the front could produce isolated showers which should remain north of the forecast area. Have increased the clouds especially over the ilm NC County Warning Area. Summer time temps will return to the forecast area these 2 days with 80-85 today mid 70s coast due to SSTs in the 60s, and mid to possibly upper 80s on Wed, with 75 to 80 at the coast. The latest GFS MOS illustrates lower 90s for inland locations for Wed but at this time will stay with model consensus. && Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/... as of 300 am Tuesday...a light gradient through the period as offshore high pressure is very weak and a Piedmont trough is relatively transient in nature. Mid level flow will be fairly flat, flowing over a low amplitude ridge over the Gulf early on. It will veer and strengthen late with the approach of a southern branch feature. This setup will yield some unseasonable warmth as lows remain in the 60s and highs warm well into the 80s away from the ocean influence. This oceanic cooling should be fairly confined to the coast as low level southwesterly flow inhibits the inland progression of the seabreeze. Clouds will increase Thursday night as the shortwave approaches and some minor rain chances will be called for, but the much better rain chances will come after the period. && Long term /Friday through Monday/... as of 300 am Tuesday...shower chances looking better than in previous model runs as the southern branch feature phases slightly with the northern branch. At the same time a surface cold front moves through. The pattern deamplifies for the remainder of the period and the warm weather briefly ended by friday's cold front will return on Sunday. && Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/... as of 12z....cre briefly went down to 3sm in br. Any fog around will likely be gone by 12z this morning. Another beautiful day with bright sunshine and a light west winds. High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon with southerly winds expected. Light southwest flow tonight. Extended outlook...VFR conditions to persist thru much of the extended period. A frontal boundary is progged to partially back-door the forecast area Wed into Thu before lifting back north. Could see MVFR from shra during Fri as low pressure passes by south of the eastern Carolinas. $$ Marine... Today through wednesday: sfc high pressure will dominate today with it's elongated center across the local waters today. A relaxed sfc pg will yield SW 10 kt or less to start today. An active sea breeze is expected today resulting in S-south-southwest around 15 kt across the nearshore waters commencing around midday and extending into the early to mid evening hours. For Wed, winds will become SW-west-southwest as a cold front stalls north of the local waters. Expect an active aftn/evening sea breeze as temps over land climb to possibly their highest for this year with south-southwest-SW around 15 kt near shore. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft at 8 second periods Tue with wind chop nearshore this aftn and early evening due to south-southwest winds associated with the sea breeze. Sig. Seas on Wed will build to 3 to 4 ft due to the increase with synoptic SW winds. For Wed afternoon, wavewatch3 indicates a 9 to 11 second period easterly wave train to affect the local waters which could push overall seas to 5 ft over the waters off Cape Fear. Wednesday night through Thursday night: quiet marine conditions through the period as weak high pressure and some intermittent inland troughiness yields SW flow generally in the 10-15kt range. The relatively small wind waves will combine with a weak east-southeast swell component for a general 2-3ft seas forecast. Friday through saturday: prefrontal southwesterly flow not expected to increase much as cold front approaches and moves through on Friday. Wind veers to west and then northwest behind it by later in the day at which time a few knots of speed increase may be noted. Seas will grow a bit more choppy and should add a 4 ft wave to the forecast. The weak high building behind the front Saturday will bring light onshore flow and decreasing wave heights. && Marine... today through wednesday: sfc high pressure will dominate today with it's elongated center across the local waters today. A relaxed sfc pg will yield SW 10 kt or less to start today. An active sea breeze is expected today resulting in S-south-southwest around 15 kt across the nearshore waters commencing around midday and extending into the early to mid evening hours. For Wed, winds will become SW-west-southwest as a cold front stalls north of the local waters. Expect an active aftn/evening sea breeze as temps over land climb to possibly their highest for this year with south-southwest-SW around 15 kt near shore. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft at 8 second periods Tue with wind chop nearshore this aftn and early evening due to south-southwest winds associated with the sea breeze. Sig. Seas on Wed will build to 3 to 4 ft due to the increase with synoptic SW winds. For Wed afternoon, wavewatch3 indicates a 9 to 11 second period easterly wave train to affect the local waters which could push overall seas to 5 ft over the waters off Cape Fear. Wednesday night through Thursday night: quiet marine conditions through the period as weak high pressure and some intermittent inland troughiness yields SW flow generally in the 10-15kt range. The relatively small wind waves will combine with a weak east-southeast swell component for a general 2-3ft seas forecast. Friday through saturday: prefrontal southwesterly flow not expected to increase much as cold front approaches and moves through on Friday. Wind veers to west and then northwest behind it by later in the day at which time a few knots of speed increase may be noted. Seas will grow a bit more choppy and should add a 4 ft wave to the forecast. The weak high building behind the front Saturday will bring light onshore flow and decreasing wave heights. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...none. NC...none. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...dch

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