Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kilm 180524 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 124 am EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Synopsis... warm and humid weather accompanied by isolated to scattered thunderstorms, will prevail through Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Frontal passage will bring a drying trend late in the week, but temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the forecast period. && Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 3 PM Monday...scattered convection has developed along the differential heating boundary setup by the coastal plains and sandhills. Also, isolated convection had formed along the sea-breeze boundary south of Murrells Inlet. Hrrr is a bit slow on the development and it continues to show the coverage remaining west of I-95 with only isolated convection elsewhere west of the sea breeze and dying after sunset. The depth of the moisture over the region is on the increase and will be closer to 2" by Tuesday afternoon. Still not much forcing in the upper levels but as we saw on Sunday any large scale lift that is undetected will help diurnal convection on Tuesday. The NAM model cape values show 2500+ j/kg in the heat of the day Tuesday. So with the little synoptic scale force will go with a 30% pop in the western areas along the sandhills/coastal plains differential heating boundary and a 20 percent chance along the sea-breeze, Lows tonight and Tuesday night are expected to range between the lower 70s inland to middle 70s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday should reach the 90 to 93 degree range and will be in the mid 80s at the beaches. && Short term /Wednesday night/... as of 330 PM Monday...better chances for rain Wednesday (50% pops) than Tuesday, as shortwave energy embedded in the west/SW flow aloft moves through the area in conjunction with ~75% 1000-500 mb relative humidity. Convection again should be diurnal in nature, but still could see some shras/tstms early in the day as well depending on the timing of the shortwaves. High temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s. Wednesday night will bring a break in the pieces of shortwave energy moving overhead and thus only have 20-30% pops. Low temps mainly in the mid 70s. && Long term /Thursday through Monday/... as of 330 PM Monday...models have come into better agreement on the timing of a cold fropa early in the period. The front will cross the area late Thursday bringing another good chance of rain, followed by drier conditions Friday into the weekend with weak high pressure in the vicinity. Precip chances: 40-60% chance of shras/tstms Thursday into Thursday night, decreasing to 20% Friday morning. Dry Friday afternoon through Saturday, with low diurnal rain chances returning Sunday. Temps: near to slightly above normal through the entire period...highs avg in the upr 80s to mid 90s, with lows in the low/mid 70s. && Aviation /05z Tuesday through Saturday/... as of 0524z...VFR, outside of isolated storms, and patches of morning IFR/MVFR stratus, good visibility overall for pilots today. S wind gusts nearing 20 kt along coastal terminals this afternoon, before tapering aft 0z to south-southwest 3-8 kt. Debris from afternoon convection may bring bkn100, and ocean stratus in the form of bkn020 possible, at very end of taf cycle. Extended outlook...mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR conditions Wednesday through Friday from convection and early morning fog and/or, low stratus. && Marine... as of 330 PM Monday...high pressure well off the southeast coast will continue to slowly shift off the coast. A trough of low pressure will move toward the coast late Tuesday. This will cause the southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots to increase from the south to 15 knots. The seas will begin around 2 feet tonight and will increase to 3 to 4 feet farther off the coast Tuesday night. A southeast swell of 1.5 feet from the southeast is expected to continue through the near term. A Piedmont trough develops Wednesday and increases the gradient over the waters to the tune of about 15 kt. Seas should build to 4 to 5 ft by Wednesday night. A further deterioration in wind/seas slated for Thursday. Upper-level energy impinges from the west but low-level wind fields strengthen ahead of a weak cold front. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed Thursday/Thursday night. A turn to west and diminishing winds and seas then expected for Friday and Saturday. && Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... SC...none. NC...none. Marine...none. && $$

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