Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kilx 171750 afdilx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois 1150 am CST sun Feb 17 2019 Update... issued at 1104 am CST sun Feb 17 2019 radar showing signs of some clearing, although visibilities across the region would still lean towards some minor drizzle and flurries. Majority of the precip has moved off to the north, but models are persistent with the introduction of some showers, and another band of precip developing later this afternoon. Given what is out to the west and depth of clouds on Sat imagery, not going to drop the pops just yet. However, will likely let the southern portion of the advisory go at noon... keep the north with the best chance of more measurable precip before the end of the day. && Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 420 am CST sun Feb 17 2019 Continued the Winter Weather Advisory through noon today north of I-70 for light snow and ice accumulations, and through 6 PM for areas from Fulton, Tazewell and McLean counties northward for 2-4 inches of snow and light icing possible. Also issued a Special Weather Statement for southeast Illinois where light wintry mix could bring light icing into mid morning to areas along and south of I-70 to along Highway 50. An area of light snow had spread east-northeast across central Illinois during overnight and was more widespread over northern County Warning Area into NW Illinois. Some light freezing rain/freezing drizzle was mixing in with the light snow from Decatur SW. Temps were in the mid to upper 20s over central Illinois and lower 30s south of Effingham and Robinson with temps around 32f along Highway 50. Early morning surface map shows 1002 mb low pressure over south Texas with a frontal boundary extending to a weaker 1007 mb low pressure in west TN, with frontal boundary extending into southeast Kentucky. Another surface trof extended northward into western MO and central Iowa. Elongated low pressure system to be oriented from southeast MS into central Alabama and extending into the Ohio River valley by early evening, with a surface trof hanging back westward into central and northern Illinois. Latest hi-resolution models continue to show more widespread light snow to occur over northern half of County Warning Area this morning with freezing drizzle becoming possible too. Light wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will become more scattered in southern County Warning Area during today, and to change to light rain for a time this afternoon especially in southeast Illinois. The more widespread light snow to gradually shift north of County Warning Area during this evening with low chances of light snow/flurries overnight northern half cwa, while southern areas mainly dry or just trace amounts this evening. East-northeast winds 8-16 mph early this morning to gradually weaken during this afternoon and into tonight and shift more northerly to NE tonight. Highs this afternoon range from around 30f northern cwa, to upper 30s to near 40f in southeast Illinois. Lows tonight range from lower 20s northern/NW County Warning Area to upper 20s in southeast Illinois. Long term...(monday through saturday) issued at 420 am CST sun Feb 17 2019 Could be a few flurries from I-74 NE Mon morning otherwise a dry and cool day with mostly cloudy skies and NW winds 7-14 mph as 1040 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Midwest by sunset Monday. Highs Monday range from 27-31f over northern County Warning Area to mid 30s in southeast Illinois. Cooler lows Monday night in the mid to upper teens north of I-72 and 20-25f from I-72 south. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Tue though skies will trend cloudier later in the afternoon, and dry conditions should prevail through sunset Tue as 1040 mb Canadian high pressure settles over the Great Lakes region. Highs Tue range from lower 30s northern cwa, mid 30s central sections, and upper 30s to near 40f in southeast Illinois. A deep upper level trof into The Rockies by Tue to eject next wx system NE into Illinois during Tue night and Wed, with light snow likely spreading NE over County Warning Area during Tue evening, then a wintry mix overnight Tue night into Wed morning, and diminishing Wed afternoon. Freezing rain appears more likely overnight Tue night into early Wed morning, then changing to light rain from south to north during Wed. Lows Tue night in the upper 20s central Illinois and lower 30s in southeast Illinois. Highs Wed contrast from 35-40f northern County Warning Area to mid to upper 40s from I-70 southeast. Some cooling behind this wx system Wed night and Thu as weak high pressure ridges into Iowa/Illinois by midday Thu. Latest model blends have trended further northward with light rain into southeast Illinois during Thu afternoon, then light mixed pcpn Thu night in southeast/eastern Illinois as upper level flow becoming more amplified and Illinois in SW upper level flow during mid and late week. We will be on NW fringe of storm system in the southeast states Thu afternoon and Thu night with heavier qpf from Ohio River se. Dry wx expected on Friday and most of Fri night, and starting to warm back up. Highs Friday around 40f northern County Warning Area and 45-50 in southeast Illinois. Even milder on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s northern County Warning Area and low to mid 50s from I-72 south. Yet another chance of precipitation late Fri night thru Sunday, and this time around looks like mainly rain thru Saturday, with perhaps a mix northern County Warning Area overnight Fri night into early Sat morning. Then colder air arriving overnight Sat night into Sunday morning to change rain chances to mixed pcpn especially NW of I-70. Highs next Sunday range from mid 30s northern County Warning Area to mid to upper 40s in southeast Illinois. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) issued at 1150 am CST sun Feb 17 2019 The initial wave of precip has shifted to the northeast, with a few hours of freezing drizzle on the back side of the snow earlier. The lull in the precip appears to be short lived, as satellite images are showing clouds bubbling up in both western Illinois as well as east-central IL, and farther west in southeast Iowa and NE Missouri. Dvn recieved reports of more freezing drizzle developing in far west IL, and radar returns are supporting that trend. The clouds to the west align well with what high resolution guidance is showing as our next wave of precipitation for the afternoon. Have included mainly snow in the tafs, but the recent reports may cause quick updates to the 18z tafs to account for freezing drizzle potential. Colder air arriving later this afternoon and this evening could be accompanied by a brief wave of ice crystals aloft. Light snow accum will be possible, along with a glaze of ice from freezing drizzle. IFR clouds will prevail through tonight, then improvement to MVFR will occur later in the taf period, later tonight into Mon morn. && Ilx watches/warnings/advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ilz040>057-061. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ilz027>031-036>038. && $$

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