Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kilx 190000 afdilx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois 700 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Short term...(this evening through friday) issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Cold front has finally made it to the southeast County Warning Area area by 3pm. However, banded showers behind the front have been moving southeast over much of central Illinois through the day, finally clearing the western portions. Infrared satellite and radar displayed one wave of light pcpn that moved north over eastern sections today, but satellite beginning to show next wave of convection to break off of the major convection complex over the central Gulf states. 850mb moisture transport flow a bit weaker now moving into southern IL, but overnight, models develop surface low that moves north into Ohio Valley and expect the moisture flow to increase into the southeast sections. Have therefore continued Flood Watch in the southeast and expanded the area 1 tier of counties to the north of current area. Additional rainfall through Friday morning of one to 1.5 inches possible with some higher amounts. This will make conditions worse on already saturated ground. Short range models continue to wrap moisture and overrunning pcpn into the southeast couple of counties even into Friday. That part of the forecast will need to be monitored for additional flood potential. Long term...(friday night through thursday) issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Some lingering showers Friday night east, and the winds will intensity as the surface low moves north into TN/KY. Cloudy skies the rule into Saturday with cool conditions and windy. Easter looks to be nice as high moves across area. Sunday night though brings chance of showers in northern Illinois with another frontal zone developing in the area. Front lingers east-west over Illinois through Tuesday and then on Wednesday, the system moves into the plains with cold front moving through Illinois on Wednesday. Model solutions vary some on this system and the amount of pcpn with it. After its passage, it is mainly dry. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 A stalled cold front is extending across far southeast IL, including clipping far southeast Lawrence County. A wave of low pressure will progress from SW to NE along the front tonight, helping to increase the coverage and intensity of the rain showers across areas along and east of I-55. Forecast soundings indicate that MVFR clouds will prevail at the taf sites tonight, with cigs lowering toward IFR later tonight. Periods of light rain are expected mainly for Dec and cmi. However, as the low pressure makes its closest approach to our County Warning Area toward 06z, rain will expand to the west along I-55 for spi and bmi. Vis is not expected to drop below VFR, and cigs should improve from MVFR to VFR tomorrow afternoon. Winds look to diminish for a time this evening, but remain north-northwest at 10-15kt. Some gustiness is projected to redevelop as the surface low approaches, with 15g30kt possible on Friday as the low begins to pull away to the east. && Ilx watches/warnings/advisories... Flood Watch through Friday morning for ilz057-062-063-066>068- 071>073. &&

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