Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kilx 230837 afdilx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois 237 am CST Sat Feb 23 2019 Short term...(today through sunday) issued at 237 am CST Sat Feb 23 2019 Main concerns in the short term remain with the thunder potential later today, as well as the strong winds overnight into Sunday. Upper low over New Mexico early this morning will continue to deepen as it lifts northeast to near Kansas City by early evening. Rain activity so far has largely been staying across Missouri and Iowa, though we've seen a few sprinkles at times this far east. With time, this rain shield will edge eastward into the Illinois River valley this morning, while an inverted trough axis near I-55 keeps activity east of there more scattered. Will include a mention of isolated thunder this morning, as some elevated mucape's will be present along the incoming warm front. By mid afternoon, the front should be roughly along a Havana to Watseka line, and showers/storms will be increasing south of there. Latest Storm Prediction Center day1 outlook continues with a marginal risk of severe weather south of I-70, primarily from the tremendous bulk shear expected. As such, will go with higher thunder chances afternoon and early evening, until the main cold front passes. Much of the rain should be out of the area by midnight, but will keep a mention of some showers across the northwest County Warning Area overnight, wrapping around the low. Focus then shifts towards the wind issue. Will keep the existing watch/advisory configuration in place for now, though the watch may trend toward a higher-end advisory. Strong isallobaric surge (3-hour pressure change around 9 mb across eastern Iowa late tonight) will result in a significant spike in the winds around 3-4 am, as winds start to gust 45-50 mph. BUFKIT momentum Transfer suggests these strong winds will continue well into the afternoon, though with a slight decreasing trend from southwest to northeast as the low lifts into Ontario. Headlines are in effect until 9 PM Sunday, though some of it may be able to get dropped a bit early. && Long term...(sunday night through friday) issued at 237 am CST Sat Feb 23 2019 Once the wind issue passes, a couple days of quiet weather will start the work week. Some silent 20% pop's were included in the forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with a fast moving precip streak as seen on the European and Canadian models. As we go in time, though, differences Widen between these models and the GFS. The latter model features a cold front passage on Wednesday with much better chances of showers, and a much stronger storm system moving in early next weekend. Will mainly keep the pop's in the 20-30% range through the end of the forecast period, though higher pop's Friday are more of a reflection of this strong GFS solution. In regards to temperatures, our area will see glancing blows from periodic Arctic surges. Sunday night and Monday will be the primary cold period for US, with lows near 10 and highs in the 20s across the northern third of the forecast area. I-72 and south should fare a bit better, but still well below normal for late February. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 MVFR ceilings have spread NE to a Peoria to Lincoln line and will spread into bmi and cmi during next 1-3 hours. Ceilings to continue to lower across central Illinois during overnight, with IFR ceilings less than 1k ft common late tonight into much of Saturday. Much of central Illinois has been dry so far tonight with radar mosaic showing isolated light rain showers west of Macomb and Galesburg and in far southeast Illinois. Expect isolated light rain showers to occur over central Illinois overnight with MVFR vsbys possibly mainly from a light fog/haze. Rain showers to become more widespread during Sat morning with vsbys down to 2-4 miles and ceilings around 500 feet. 1000 mb low pressure near the nm/Texas border to track NE and deepen to 988 mb in central/SW WI by midnight Sat night. This to push a cold front eastward across central Illinois by early Sat evening, and to see more showers and isolated thunderstorms from mid Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. Have low level wind shear Sat evening with 2k ft SW winds around 45 kts. East to east-southeast winds 8-13 kts to veer southeast during Sat morning and then switch SW behind cold front during Sat evening and increase to 13-18 kts with gusts of 22-27 kts. && Ilx watches/warnings/advisories... Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Sunday for ilz049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. High wind watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for ilz027>031-036>038-040>048. && $$

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