Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kilx 241729 afdilx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Update... issued at 1106 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Water vapor satellite imagery shows vort Max ov er northwest Illinois move to the east, with light pcpn over MO into Illinois. Fetch of tropical moisture from OK over MO tinto southern IL, north of Ohio Valley frontal zone. Illinois wave to continue to move east and bringing series of waves over southern third of Illinois with scattered showers through day. && Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 308 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 An elongated stationary boundary is situated over southern Illinois, and will remain in place throughout the day and overnight. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region, although the heaviest rainfall will remain south of I-72, some rainfall north of this Interstate could be moderate at times today. This boundary is connected to a low pressure system tracking through the northern Great Lakes region, stretching to another low in the Southern Plains. As today progresses, a few disturbance waves will slide northeast out of the Southern Plains and impact the mid-Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Low pressure shifting through the Southern Plains into the southeastern US, will provide ample moisture lift along the boundary, into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. This will continue to stream water flow to the Midwest during mid-week. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, as rain-cooled air will be trapped under an overcast sky cover. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s around the cwa, from northwest to southeast respectively. Long term...(thursday through tuesday) issued at 308 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Into the second half of the week, a large-scale low pressure system will slide through Canada, bringing a deepening trough and cold front to the region. This will linger shower activity across the area Thursday. Behind the frontal passage, dry conditions return Friday, with temperatures climbing back to the mid 60s and low 70s. Unfortunately, zonal flow will bring another low pressure system rapidly into and through the region Saturday. This will once again bring additional rain, creating more water issues on over- saturated soils. Rainfall totals during Saturday will reach 0.50 inches, but with constant rainfall every couple days, the ground does not have time to fully cycle the water before more ponding occurs. Some communication tonight over temperatures behind the second frontal system on Sunday, was discussed. However, at this time it was felt that leaving current blender trends in would be sufficient. As models gain a better understanding over the next 24 hours, a decision will be re-evaluated as to the potential for dropping temps to end the weekend. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 With the frontal zone along the Ohio River through the period, plenty of moisture in the region. Wave of pcpn moves through by evening. With weak high pressure over area late tonight and light winds, northern taf sites have chance for VFR cigs and visible with MVFR condition elsewhere. Improvement on conditions during morning tomorrow. && Ilx watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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