Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kilx 231520 afdilx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois 1020 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Update... issued at 1019 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Cold front is clearing the far southeastern portions of the forecast area late this morning and will continue to sag south towards the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Stratus and cooler temperatures will persist the remainder of today across central Illinois in the wake of the front. Most of the area will also be dry. Couldn't completely rule out a stray shower in the vicinity of the front this afternoon, but this would be more favored south of the forecast area closer to the Ohio Valley where the front settles. && Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 311 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 A cold front trailing a surface low heading into lower Michigan extends from near Rantoul to Taylorville as it continues to push southeastward early this morning. Isolated showers are possible ahead of the front through morning today, mainly confined to I-70 southward by daybreak. As the front continues to push southward, a dry period should arrive across central and southeast Illinois this afternoon through evening. Another weak system will propagate northeastward along the front and lift it back northward a bit Wednesday, providing for more showers moving back into southern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will be down several degrees today in the cooler air mass behind the front, as highs reach the low to mid 60s north of Interstate 70 and upper 60s to low 70s near and south. Lows tonight should reach the low to mid 40s near and north of I-74 where skies are clearer, and upper 40s to lower 50s in southern portions of the forecast area as a result of increasing cloud cover associated with the approaching system. Highs should reach the upper 60s across central and southeast Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Long term...(wednesday through monday) issued at 311 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Wednesday night through Thursday could see some more showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon and evening as the above system pushes off to the east and a northern stream shortwave propagates through the area Thursday. A dry day still looks on track Friday as a relatively zonal flow sets up over the middle of the country and a transient high moves across Illinois. Embedded in this flow are likely to be a couple of weather systems. Current model consensus on timing for these systems is for Saturday and Monday so have higher pops in the morning forecast package these days, but predictability on timing and other details of these systems remains low. Temperatures look to remain near normal Thursday through Monday, with highs ranging from 60s to low 70s in the north. In the south, expect upper 60s and 70s. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) issued at 618 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Low MVFR conditions have overspread central Illinois during the last few hours, as a stratus deck has settled over the area. While it will persist most of the day, ceilings should gradually increase. Question will be in the short term, whether or not ceilings dip below 1,000 feet. Surface obs showing a fairly large area of IFR conditions from ktip-kmli north. Some modest increase of a couple hundred feet has occurred further west since the clouds arrived, though. For now, will only include a mention of IFR conditions at kcmi, but will need to watch kbmi/kpia closely. Some clearing will take place across central Illinois by very late afternoon, and will go with VFR conditions at most sites before 00z. Kspi is the most uncertain, as a secondary surge of mid level clouds arrives around the time the lower ones should be scattering out. Will keep them MVFR through the period as a result. && Ilx watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$

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