Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kiwx 171726 afdiwx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service northern Indiana 1226 PM EST sun Feb 17 2019 Synopsis... issued at 243 am EST sun Feb 17 2019 An upper level system will spread light snow across the area this afternoon with snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. Highs this afternoon will range from 25 to 30. Monday and Tuesday will be dry with moderating temperatures. && Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 243 am EST sun Feb 17 2019 Wrapped up upper low over NE will open up across Iowa this aftn before lifting out rapidly through the ern lakes by Mon morning. Of most concern is pivoting strong upper jet streak through the wrn Ohio Valley this aftn atop tightly packed low level frontal slope. This is turn likely to manifest a period of mesobanded snow especially with added component of lower static stability arising within impinging dryslot suggesting some convective snow bursts/greater snowfall rates likely 16-00z SW-NE. However highres guidance signaling neither consistent or very agreeable on placement of highest duration overlap. Loose consensus suggests areas within or near a Monticello-Warsaw-Hillsdale line stand the best chance of as much as 3-4" snow amounts, while a general 1-2 fits elsewhere. This begs the question of whether an advisory is needed. Metro pavement model indicates melting snow this aftn and without 1/2"/hr or greater snowfall rates little if any impacts expected contrasted with likely mesobanding and rates pushing 1"/hr for a time which would present problems. Given the vagaries of highres model suite so far and aftn timing best course of action is to punt to dayshift in the hope that better model based delineation of highest snowfall and associated impacts resolves with later runs. Otherwise midlevel dryslot overspreads most of the area tonight with some freezing drizzle possible mainly far south late. && Long term...(monday through saturday) issued at 243 am EST sun Feb 17 2019 Sfc ridging sprawls east through across the lakes through Tue ahead of next upstream swrn US placed SW disturbance ejecting out and shearing through the upper Midwest late Wed. This will undoubtedly reactive old stalled frontal zone through the Tennessee/lwr MS valley as forcing with upper wave passes well west. Blended pops still look a bit overdone esp late Wed but generally accepted. Still appears as a start with snow initially Tue night followed by a change over to rain Wed morning. Thereafter focus lies with more formidable parent low ejection next weekend. Gem/ec similar in kind sfc and aloft with explosive deepening through the wrn lakes versus a comparatively tame yet vastly differing GFS solution. Soon to be operational GFS-fv3 though does attempt to mimic the Gem/ec construct but 10mb weaker with sfc cyclone. Nevertheless next weekend period remains of great interest especially in the context of the idea that the ern US finally sees a phased nrn/srn stream system. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) issued at 1222 PM EST sun Feb 17 2019 Tricky forecast at the onset of the period. Hires models indicate a mesoband forming shortly after start of period but exact location is still uncertain. Accounted for possibility with a few hour tempo further reducing visby over both taf sites down into IFR flight conditions. Otherwise light snow showers will continue into the evening but should not impact visby too much. Fuel alternate cigs remain through the end of the forecast period. && Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...none. Michigan...none. Ohio...none. Lm...none. && $$ Synopsis...T short term...T long term...T aviation...heidelberger Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx

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