Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kiwx 182254 afdiwx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service northern Indiana 654 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Synopsis... issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Periods of rain will continue through early Saturday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches will be possible, especially along and east of Interstate 69 with rainfall amounts quickly tapering off as you move northwest. Conditions are expected to dry out Saturday night into the second half of the weekend. Highs will struggle through the 40s on Friday with windy conditions making it feel even worse. However,warmer weather begins to arrive Sunday and into next week, but more rain chances loom through mid week. && Short term...(this evening through friday) issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Cold front was depicted nicely on radar and obs from Sturgis to Grissom arb working east. Precip has been more showery in nature either side of this feature with more of the expected uptick in precip noted upstream. Axis of heaviest precip, at least into Fri am looks to be southeast third to half of the area with front likely to stall out just southeast of the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts will generally be one half to one inch just through Fri afternoon with lesser amounts going northwest. This will allow for continued river responses as well as increase in standing water in fields and low areas, but still doesn't look to rise to the need for any sort of Flood Watch. However, final rain amounts through tomorrow will play a big role in future potential for headlines outside of specific river based. Falling temperatures will take place behind the front with not a lot of recovery Friday given the extensive clouds, cold north to northwest flow and periods of rain. Highs won't make it out of the 40s. && Long term...(friday night through thursday) issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Active pattern will continue through the long term with at least 1 plus factor being the area should generally see near or above normal temps through the period. Closed upper low will continue to deepen and cut off across Kentucky (models continue to vary exactly where but at least center somewhere in central/eastern Kentucky by 12z Sat. Fri night into Saturday will be the next focus for heavy precipitation as deformation zone rotates back west and north into the forecast area. Trends still leaning towards more impact across at least the southeast half or so of the area where potential would exist for yet another half inch to inch of rain, bringing some areas to well over 2 inches. As mentioned in short term, no headlines beyond any river forecast point based products but something to watch. Easter Sunday looking dry and rather nice with highs into the 60s and maybe even some 70s as closed low finally heads for the East Coast and upper level ridging takes over. Weak disturbance tries to move towards the area by Mon/Mon ngt to bring a chance for some showers. Models begin to diverge rather dramatically after this with SW upper low and trough ejecting (gfs) vs remaining over the SW with a weaker trough over the Great Lakes. Result will be an extended period of slgt chc to chc pops due to all the blending of the models with temps into the 60s. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) issued at 654 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Stalling frontal zone and increased deformation on the northwest side of low pressure organizing into the lower Ohio Valley will keep a steady light to moderate rain in place through at least midday Friday at kfwa. This rain axis should mainly remain just east- southeast of ksbn tonight, though some drizzle/light rain possible at times. Better chances here tomorrow morning as deformation rain possibly backs northwest into the area. Winds will pick up out of the north tonight into Friday otherwise, with cigs likely bouncing around between IFR and MVFR. && Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...none. Michigan...none. Ohio...none. Lm...Gale Warning from 2 am to 9 PM EDT Friday for lmz043-046. && $$ Synopsis...Fisher short term...Fisher long term...Fisher aviation...steinwedel Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx

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