Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kiwx 221713 afdiwx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service northern Indiana 113 PM EDT Wed may 22 2019 Synopsis... issued at 112 PM EDT Wed may 22 2019 Expect partly to mostly sunny skies late this afternoon and evening, with high temperatures reaching near 80 degrees. Additional chances for rain will return overnight and continue into Thursday morning, with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will diminish by Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. && Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 402 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 A deep low was moving north/North East across the Central Plains and was occluding as the cold front associated with this system was pushing east and was bringing a round of showers early this morning from Wisconsin across Illinois and into western Kentucky. Very cool and stable air was east of this front over northern Indiana with dry air entrainment very apparent in the radar imagery line of showers and storms. The cool air, stable conditions and most unstable convective available potential energy of only a few 100 j/kg will prevent severe storms. After a very short break, more storms are likely overnight tonight, especially toward daybreak Thursday as a front approaches. A strong wind gust is possible; however, the storms are not expected to become severe. && Long term...(thursday through tuesday) issued at 402 am EDT Wed may 22 2019 A cold front will briefly move south Thursday night followed by a short break in the showers and storms. The pattern will become much warmer and will persist through Memorial Day as an upper level ridge builds over the east Continental U.S. In response to amplification of a deep upper trof and low near the West Coast. Short wave trofs associated with showers and storms will provide numerous chances of rain through early next week. The front will undulate north and south over northern Indiana and keep the weather pattern active. Highs should be above normal from 75 to 85 during this entire period. Moist air will tend to pool on the northern side of the ridge over Indiana and extend southwest during this long term period with precipitable water values generally between 1.3 and 1.8 inches. Given these high values and given the likelihood for storms to track over this area, heavy rainfall is possible. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) issued at 112 PM EDT Wed may 22 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the first portion of the taf period. A cold front will bring additional chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms to the terminals overnight and Thursday morning, starting at ksbn around 9z. Expect MVFR conditions, with IFR possible in any heavier showers or storms. South-southwest wind gusts around 15-20 kts will shift to the west by Thursday afternoon. Low level wind shear is possible briefly between 8-12z. && Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...none. Michigan...none. Ohio...none. Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for lmz043-046. && $$ Synopsis...mesoscale discussion short term...skipper long term...skipper aviation...mesoscale discussion Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx

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