Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 klzk 201958 afdlzk Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Short term...tonight through Monday High pressure over the Central Plains continues pushing eastward over the natural state this afternoon, keeping west northwesterly flow in place. The vigorous upper level low which brought stormy weather to a large portion of the southeast region through the past several days continues moving northeast through the Tennessee Valley and middle Atlantic regions. This has kept winds slightly elevated and gusty throughout the afternoon as stronger winds mix down due to the strong pressure gradient resulting from the aforementioned storm system. Otherwise, clear skies and plentiful sunshine have allowed for a beautiful day across the forecast area, with temperatures reaching into the upper 60s and 70s. High pressure will begin to break down on Monday as an upper level trough moves eastward through the northern plains, and another upper level low digs southeastward through the southwest. As these upper level features approach, we could see cloud cover return/increase late in the period. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to gradually warm, with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. && Long term...Monday night through Saturday As the period begins, shortwave upper ridging will slowly begin to migrate from the south-central Continental U.S. East as an expansive surface ridge holds across the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. fair weather will prevail early in the week with temps running several degrees above average area-wide. By Tuesday morning, though, an approaching upper trough invof the Desert Southwest will spur increasing southwest flow aloft. Return flow on the western periphery of the aforementioned surface ridge will help drive dewpoint temps into the upper 50s to 60s f ahead of this system with model-delivered precipitable water values on the order of 1.5+ inches. There are still several inconsistencies apparent in the 12z suite of guidance, although solutions from both models do appear to show signs of converging today. Fairly confident this will be a progressive, albeit slower-moving system, featuring widespread soaking rainfall that will affect most if not all of the area. Based on today's guidance, confidence has increased with the overall placement of the upper and surface cyclones across the Gulf states and the likelihood a quasi-stationary front will extend northeastward across portions of the state. This boundary will demarcate the northern extent of the richest boundary layer moisture and could help focus rainfall, especially given deep layer flow will be oriented parallel to the boundary. Sufficient MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 j/kg range will support thunder with heavy, convective rain possible. Based on continued model uncertainty, especially run-to- run inconsistencies, it is too early to determine what (if any) larger-scale flood threat may exist with this system. It would not be unreasonable to suggest at least isolated flooding could occur across susceptible areas... namely southern and eastern portions of the state. Temperatures will hover near average through the middle of the period given the abundant cloud cover and rainfall. The upper trough and associated surface features should exit by late Thursday into Friday, although phasing issues with northern stream troughing cast doubt on when precisely rain will end. Did trend faster with removing the bulk of the rain in line with the ECMWF, but left low-end pop in the southeastern counties as a nod to the GFS. Temperatures will quickly moderate through next weekend as surface ridging builds in again. Cooper && Preliminary point temps/pops... Batesville Arkansas 49 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 10 Camden Arkansas 49 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison Arkansas 51 80 56 78 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs Arkansas 51 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock Arkansas 51 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello Arkansas 50 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida Arkansas 49 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home Arkansas 49 80 57 80 / 0 0 10 10 Newport Arkansas 50 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff Arkansas 49 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville Arkansas 49 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy Arkansas 47 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart Arkansas 52 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 && Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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