Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 klzk 192330 aaa afdlzk Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 530 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Discussion... Updated to add the winter wx adv from earlier over northern sections of the state. This is due to the widespread freezing rain with some snow and pl mixed in. Some accumulations will be possible...especially in the higher terrain. Also updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below... && Aviation... MVFR to IFR conditions will be seen for much of the area this evening...especially central to northern terminals as widespread rainfall with occasional thunderstorms and rain possible. The northern terminals will see some freezing rain or pl possible this evening...eventually transitioning to all rain by late tonight. Most of the precip will then exit the region by Wed morning...with some lingering low ceilings. However...improvements should be seen by Wed afternoon. && Previous discussion...(issued 244 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019) Short term...tonight through Thursday... Data from local radars indicate a precipitation shield now covering all portions of the forecast area. Mixed areas of sleet have been observed across northern sections. Also, central sections have had temperatures drop to the lower 30s. Regional 18z soundings in support of the vortex-southeast support some additional evaporative cooling during the mid afternoon hours, before increased warm air advection in lower levels develops. Intensity and coverage of precipitation will decrease late tonight, as the better forcing moves to the east and northeast of the state. Additional, less pronounced upper level energy will approach late in the period, and will promote scattered, light precipitation across mainly southeast sections. Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday... low pressure forming along a boundary to the south of Arkansas will enhance uplift into the region, with showers overspreading the state Thursday night into Friday. By Friday and Friday night, thunderstorms will become a concern, as the warm sector of the system advances into the region, and a negatively tilted upper trough approaches from the Southern Plains. Heavy rainfall remains a concern with the overabundance of moisture coming into the region from the Gulf and Pacific. This, combined with already saturated ground will create prime conditions for flash flooding. Heavy rain will also keep river stages high, with flooding continuing into early March. Severe thunderstorms are also a concern on Saturday, given the amount of shear and upper level support we will have over US. The big question remains instability (or lack thereof). Still seeing this playing out as a Low Cape/high shear event, with MCS development ahead of the front and a risk of wind damage and qlcs- type tornadoes. Saturday night, the surface low will drag a cold front across the state, with drier and slightly cooler air following. The front will stall out to the south of the state as it hits upper ridging over the Gulf.&& && Lzk watches/warnings/advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Baxter- Boone-Fulton-Izard-Lawrence-Marion-Newton-Randolph-Searcy-sharp- stone-Van Buren. Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Arkansas-Bradley- Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Grant-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln- Lonoke-Monroe-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-white-Woodruff.

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