Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 232008 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 408 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will be centered offshore through mid week. A mainly dry weak cold front will drop south into the region Wednesday night and Thursday then dissipate. A stronger cold front will move through late Friday, followed by high pressure for the weekend. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 230 PM Tue...quiet wx will persist with high pres cont off the coast. Atms is quite dry and expect cont mainly clr skies. Light SW brz expected overnight leading to milder lows in upr 50s to lower 60s inland and low/mid 60s beaches. && Short term /Wednesday/... as of 230 PM Tue...weak backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north but expect limited impacts most of the area with cont msunny skies. Did keep a very low pop far NE late in day but bulk of region will see no rain. Very warm temps expected ahead of front with west-southwest flow...mid to a few upr 80s inland with mainly 70s beaches. Nrn obx wl likely see lower 80s given wind dir off Mainland. && Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... as of 330 PM Tuesday...high pressure will be positioned off the southeast coast while a backdoor cold front drops into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a cold front Friday and Friday night, followed by drier weather over the weekend and early next week. Wednesday night through Thursday...high pressure off the southeast coast will be pushed southward through mid week while upper ridging flattens as a mid level shortwave moves across the mid-Atlantic states and the attendant backdoor cold front pushes into the region Wednesday night then dissipates Thursday. 12z model suite has trended drier with this boundary and most do not develop any quantitative precipitation forecast. Have lowered pops slightly but still retained slight chance pops across the northern tier for the evening, but if the trend continues later shifts may remove showers entirely. Models also trended drier for Thursday and lowered pops below 15 percent but cannot entirely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon with the lingering frontal boundary and sea breeze developing in the afternoon. Temps will be well above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland to upper 70s to lower 80s coast, though easterly, onshore winds behind the frontal boundary will likely keep temps across much of the Albemarle-Pamlico peninsula in the upper 70s to lower 80s as well. Lows will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday night through Friday night...a cold front and associated mid-level shortwave will cross the area Friday and Friday night. Precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches Friday and Friday night and continue high chance pops for this period. Most global models show a descent coverage of precip with this system, but the 12z NAM doesn't develop and precip across eastern NC and am reluctant to increase pops above 50% at this time. With surface-based cape values of 500-750 j/kg, continue to include some scattered thunderstorms, but wind fields do not merit any organized severe threat at this time. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. Saturday through Monday...axis of mid-level trough moves offshore fairly quickly Saturday with generally dry and slightly cooler conditions over the weekend. High pressure will be centered over the area Saturday, then will slide offshore Sunday into Monday while continuing to ridge into the region. Flow aloft will generally be zonal with a few weak disturbances moving through the area which may bring an isolated shower mainly during the afternoon hours. The 12z GFS is an outlier showing a cold front pushing across the area late Sunday with strong high pressure building in early next week but have discounted this solution, keeping conditions mainly dry this period. Highs Sat expected in the low to mid 70s inland to mid to upper 60s coast, then will warm a few degrees Sunday. Have kept the warming trend into early next week but if the GFS solution verifies, temps early next week will be much cooler. && Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/... short term /through Wed/... as of 1220 PM Tue...high confidence in VFR through the taf pd. Skies shld remain mainly clr thru mid day Wed with just some wispy high clouds. Later Wed may see some incrs in clouds espcly nrn tier closer to approaching backdoor front but any cigs will be VFR. Light SW brz tonight shld preclude any fog from forming. Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... as of 345 PM Tue...pred VFR conditions expected through Thursday, but cannot rule out brief periods of sub-VFR conditions Wednesday evening if showers develop along a backdoor front that is progged to be across into the area. Given light winds, some patchy morning fog is possible as well, but extent will be limited. Areas of sub VFR conditions will be possible Friday as a cold front and associated mid-level shortwave produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. High pressure builds into the area Saturday and moves offshore Sunday with VFR conditions dominating. && Marine... short term /through tonight/... as of 230 PM Tue...grdnt will tighten overnight between offshore high pres and approaching back door front. Most all mdls show decent low lvl jet along the CST late and this shld lead to sfc winds reaching 20 kts with frequent gusts to 25 kts central wtrs and ern portion of Pamlico Sound. Based on this started a brief Small Craft Advisory for Pamlico Sound and cstl wtrs from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout late tonight into Wed morn. As the front moves closer Wed winds will grad diminish and become light nrn tier but remain SW 10 to 20 kts central and S. Seas will build 3 to 5 feet tonight and cont thru Wed. Some 6 foot seas expected outer central wtrs late tonight that will cont early Wed. The 6 foot seas shld subside in the aftn as winds diminish. Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... as of 4 PM Tue...a backdoor front is progged to sag to around the Pamlico river area Wednesday night, then dissipate Thursday. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected south of the boundary and east/NE around 5-10 kt north of the boundary, becoming SW around 10-20 kt all waters by late Thursday. Seas around 3-5 ft Wednesday evening, briefly subsides to 2-4 ft Thursday, then builds back to 3-5 ft Thursday night. SW winds increase to around 15-25 kt Fri ahead of the next frontal system that will cross the area Fri night, followed by a northwest to north surge around 15-25 kt late Fri night. Good chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop Fri and possibly continuing into Sat. Seas continue to build to 4-7 ft Fri, then diminishes to 3-5 ft late Friday night. High pressure builds into the region Saturday and slides offshore Sunday. North/northwest winds diminish to 15 kt or less Saturday afternoon, then becomes southerly Sunday and increases to 10-20 kt Sunday afternoon. Seas continue to subside to 2-3 ft by Saturday evening and continues through Sunday. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to noon EDT Wednesday for amz156. Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for amz135. && $$ Synopsis...mhx

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