Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 200222 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1022 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Synopsis... a cold front will approach the area tonight then move offshore early Saturday. High pressure will build into the region early next week and continue through mid week. A cold front will move through Wednesday night or Thursday. && Near term /through Saturday/... as of 1020 PM Friday...tweaked pops based on current radar trends. Have reduced pops in the west to chance with likely along the Outer Banks for the next few hours, then continue to reduce pops for the remainder of the night. No change to low temps. Mild lows tonight with upper 50s inland to mid 60s Outer Banks. && Short term /Saturday night through 6 PM Saturday/... as of 3 PM Friday...the cold front will be near the Outer Banks by sunrise Saturday, and move well offshore during the morning. Lingering shra imd CST will quickly move offshore. The stacked low lifting across the Great Lakes will remain in control of our weather, bringing atypical Post frontal southwesterly flow and thus a lack of the cold air advection we typically see behind fropas. Subsidence aloft will bring predominantly settled conditions on Sat despite the lack of significant low level airmass change. With pc to msunny skies expect highs mostly in the lower 70s with breezy south-southwest winds. && Long term /Saturday night through Friday/... as of 4 am Fri...dry weather is forecast to prevail through Tuesday. A cold front will bring a chance for showers or storms mid week. Saturday night and Sunday...on Sunday, as the the upper low aloft rotates east through Virginia has enough strong lift associated with it to not completely discount a rogue iso shower or two, and kept slgt chc pops to account for this, with best chance across nrn zones in vcnty of the upper low. Any showers will end quickly by sunset as activity will be diurnally driven, and temps cool to below climo with dry air mass moving in behind the low. Temps drop into the mid/upr 40s (low/mid 50s beaches). Highs Sunday will be seasonably mild, with readings generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday through Tuesday...subtropical high pressure is expected to ridge into the area early next week, bringing very pleasant and rain- free conditions with temps moderating each day. Highs near climo on Mon with low/mid 70s, and above climo by Tue with mid 70s to low 80s. Wednesday through Thursday...a backdoor cold front will approach and move through the region by late Wed or early thur, being forced by low amplitude shortwave moving through nrn stream. This feature could be a Focal Point for showers and storms, as at least marginal instability will be present with decent shear in place, but with timing/evolution differences only going for small chc pops at this time. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Wed. By thur, the front will push through and temps cool back to near climo with high pres building in. && Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/... short term /through Sat/... as of 1020 PM Friday...convection has moved east of the taf sites. Only scattered convection forecast for the rest of thenight. Expect grad lifting and decreasing clouds with VFR late tonight thru Sat. South-southwest winds will again gust 20 to 25 kts Sat. Long term /Sat night through Tue/... as of 4 am Fri...more settled (vfr) conditions will gradually ensue again on Saturday and dominate through early next week behind the strong cold front moving through early Sat morning. && Marine... short term /tonight and Sat/... as of 10 PM Friday...no changes with very hazardous winds/seas next 12 to 24 hrs. Cont Storm Warning Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout with gales rest of wtrs. S winds currently 20 to 30 kts will peak this evening ahead of front as low lvl jet crosses. Expect winds to reach 30 to 40 kts with outer central wtrs reaching 40 to 50 kts with some higher gusts. These winds will lead to seas reaching 15+ feet of obx tonight. As the front moves offshore Sat expect south-southwest winds to remain gusty at 15 to 25 kt. Seas will be slow to subside reaching 7 to 11 ft later Sat. Long term /Sat night through Tue/... as of 4 am Fri... the cold front will cross the waters Saturday morning, and while winds will decrease drastically from gale and storm force, only slight improvement this weekend, as seas remain elevated above 6 ft due in part to continued SW flow in the 15-25 kt range. Good boating conditions finally return by the beginning of the work week as high pres builds in. && Tides/coastal flooding... as of 3 PM Friday...strong southerly winds will build waves in the surf zone from Hatteras Island S to 8+ ft later this afternoon and continuing into Saturday. This rough surf will likely lead to some beach erosion and poss local overwash. The strong winds will bring minor increases in water levels over the northern Pamlico Sound into the Roanoke/Croatan sounds region this evening and tonight. High surf advisories will remain in effect. Wl cont to hold off on coastal flood advisory as this time as water levels rises will mainly be 1-2 feet and will be short lived with a fast moving system. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...Wind Advisory until 4 am EDT Saturday for ncz047-081-203. Beach hazards statement through Saturday evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. High surf advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for ncz195-196-199- 204-205. Wind Advisory until 2 am EDT Saturday for ncz195-199. High Wind Warning until 7 am EDT Saturday for ncz204-205. High Wind Warning until 5 am EDT Saturday for ncz196. Marine...Gale Warning until 5 am EDT Saturday for amz131-136-137-158- 230-231. Gale Warning until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz135. Storm Warning until 5 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154-156. Gale Warning until 6 am EDT Saturday for amz150. && $$ Synopsis...mhx near term...hsa/rf short term...rf

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