Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 160203 cca afdmhx Area forecast discussion...corrected National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1003 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Synopsis... high pressure just offshore will slowly drift further east, but continue to ridge into the area into early next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms return by mid week. && Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... as of 955 PM Sat...current forecast is in great shape; no update needed. Prev dis...quiet weather will continue through the overnight under mostly clear skies as high pressure remains offshore leading to a light southerly flow. Overnight temperatures will be warmer than last night; expect lows in the low to mid 60s inland, and the upper 60s to low 70s closer to the coast. && Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/... as of 215 PM Sat...high pressure will drift a bit further east tomorrow, but will still keep any rain chances away from the area. Southerly flow will increase through the day, and we will see dewpoints on the rise and reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. The heat will also return, with high temps climbing into the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s closer to the coast. && Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/... as of 345 PM Sat...becoming hot and humid with occasional thunderstorms by Tuesday through Thursday, then drier and continued hot and humid late in the week. Monday through Tuesday...a summertime pattern sets up across the area with the high off the coast and the inland surface trof in place. Temps will climb further, and td's will be uncomfortably high into the 70s. Highs reach the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps will again become warm and muggy...mostly remaining in the 70s. Convective chances still minimal on Monday, as upr ridging continues its grip on east NC. Perhaps a storm or two on Tuesday afternoon, though ridging still in control, and will cap pops at 30% well inland, with coastal areas remaining dry. Wednesday through Thursday...ridge gets knocked down a bit by mid week with low amplitude shortwaves riding through main flow and bringing somewhat better chances of convection. Shear is fairly minimal so not expecting severe, and any convection should mainly be relegated to afternoon through early evening with daytime heating. Will highlight 40-50% interior zones with 20-30% coastal areas. Remaining hot and humid with highs around 90 inland to mid/upr 80s nearer the coast, and 70s overnight lows. Friday through Saturday...15/12z global model suite in good agreement with front and shortwave moving off the East Coast by early Friday, thus mainly a dry forecast. The front will not bring relief from the heat and humidity however, with hot temps and high humidities continuing as hts remain above climo. Highs in the 90s inland to 80s beaches with lows in the 70s. && Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/... short term /through Sunday afternoon/... as of 700 PM Sat...high confidence in VFR conditions to dominate most of the taf period with possible MVFR conditions late tonight/early Sunday morning. Overall, expect mostly clear skies with high clouds streaming across the region and a light southerly flow. An increase of moisture may lead to some MVFR ceilings for the coastal taf sites (ewn & oaj), while oaj and isolated has the chance for fog development if winds decouple, but the signal appears weak. For now, continued the mentioned of scattered MVFR (for ewn/oaj) and added 6 miles of visibility for oaj. Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... as of 345 PM Sat...VFR conditions expected through Monday with high pressure rebuilding and dry air mass in place. Some ocnl sub VFR possible Tue, and esp Wed and Thu, with afternoon and early evening sct thunderstorms. Could be some overnight/early morning br/fog develop each morning as lower atmos moistens by early next week. && Marine... short term /through Sunday/... as of 955 PM Sat...the latest buoy observations are showing southerly flow of 5-15 knots and seas 2-3 ft. Southerly winds 5-15 knots will continue through the overnight, before becoming SW tomorrow morning, and then 15-20 kts in the afternoon with seas 2-3 ft through the period. Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... as of 345 PM Sat...SW winds increase on Mon afternoon/evening and again Tue and Wed, and with increasing thermal gradient afternoon and evening winds 15-20 kt with ocnl gusts to 25 kt, esp for Pamlico and srn/ctrl waters. Seas will increase a bit to 3-5 ft, with a choppy 5 foot periodicity. A front will move through late Thursday or early Friday with more Stout swrly winds of 20-25 kt developing and seas building to 6+ ft. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...mhx

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