Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 220314 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1014 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 Synopsis... a cold front will cross the region tonight. The front is expected to then lift back to the north as a warm front this weekend, resulting in a continued unsettled weather pattern. High pressure will build in from the northwest early next week. && Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... as of 1010 PM Thursday...based on current wind observations, cold front is slowly making its way through the County Warning Area. A few showers have developed over the far southwestern cwa, but per latest high-resolution hrrr and 3km NAM forecast, think the bulk of precipitation will hold off until after 06z and most likely until after 08z-09z as the isentropic lift increases. Pops continue high, ramping to likely to categorical in most area toward morning. No changes in the temperatures forecast. Current mild readings in the 50s will drop into the 40s by morning as cold front drops south of the area. A nice surge of NE winds will develop, especially near the coast toward morning. && Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/... as of 245 PM Thu...the front will stall south of the area Friday, as high pressure builds in from the north setting up another cad type situation with overrunning precip. Good isentropic lift and deep moisture across the area will produce more light to locally moderate rainfall. Will continue likely to categorical pops through the day. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday, and could see highs early in the day and falling during the afternoon. && Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... as of 320 PM Thu...mostly unsettled weather expected to the end of the weekend with persistent cold air damming and a stalled front to the south. A cold front crosses the region Sunday ushering in a brief period of dry high pressure to start the new week. Another round of unsettled weather is possible at the end of the period. Friday night through Sunday...cold air damming will be ongoing Friday evening with isentropic upglide over a stalled frontal boundary positioned over Georgia/SC aiding in more soggy conditions although quantitative precipitation forecast should be light - under a quarter of an inch. With plenty of cloud cover, not forecasting lows beyond the low 40s. It does appear there will be a non-diurnal temperature curve closer to shore where a coastal trough will develop late overnight, although how far the feature impinges on the coast (and thus how much temperatures rise) is still a source of uncertainty. Numerical guidance is generally too aggressive in eroding cad-associated cold wedges, and therefore will continue to favor cooler guidance. Like yesterday, confidence in temperature forecasts are lower than normal. The coastal trough will persist off the coast and eventually push inland late in the day Saturday. A non-diurnal temperature curve appears probable Saturday night as the region comes under the influence of warm air advection ahead of a deep surface low lifting into the Great Lakes and associated cold front to the west. Models have slowed the low and therefore the front slightly, and have moved pops up slightly Sunday afternoon to account for this shift. Temps still expected to climb into the low to mid 70s before the front comes through. Breezy conditions still expected ahead of the front with brisk SW winds of 15-25 mph, with some gusts up to 30 mph. Sunday night through Wednesday...dry high pres arrives late Sunday with temps in the period generally in the low 60s. Wednesday night/Thursday may see a return of unsettled weather, although still uncertainty with its evolution and have kept only slight chance to low-end chance pops this cycle. Confidence in this period is lower than normal. && Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/... short term /through 00z Saturday/... as of 720 PM Thursday...difficult aviation forecast continues but will continue the previous forecast showing mostly MVFR for all taf sites through the night as the low-level flow gradually veers from SW/west to NE as a cold front sinks south across the region. Some patchy fog will be possible overnight, but the cold front moving through should keep things fairly well mixed preventing fog, but vsbys will be reduced in light rain that will become widespread by 08z-09z and continue through the much of the day on Friday. Long term /Fri night through Tuesday/... as of 320 PM Thu...above average confidence in sub-VFR Fri night into Sat in an unsettled weather pattern, with good chances of rain. Sunday afternoon will finally dry out with a return to VFR expected. Breezy SW winds Sunday morning of 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are possible at all sites. VFR conditions hold through Tuesday. && Marine... short term /through Friday/... as of 1010 PM Thursday...no big changes to the marine forecast as winds should gradually become north/NE at all marine locations over the next few hours. A cold front will drop south across the region overnight with a good cold air advection surge of NE winds developing by early morning Friday. High-res models such as the 3km NAM and hrrr showing 15-25 knot NE winds early Friday morning continuing into Friday evening. Seas will build to 4-6 feet in the advisory area tomorrow. Sea fog has diminished over the past couple of hours per observations and web cameras, but some lower vsbys still detected over the northern Outer Banks. Will let the marine dense fog advisory continue until 1 am. Long term /Fri night through Tuesday/... as of 320 PM Thu...poor boating conditions forecast through most of the period in an unsettled weather pattern. Small Craft Advisory conditions for outer srn and cntrl waters Friday evening subside to 3-4 feet in north to NE flow behind a front to the south. Winds veer to S Saturday evening at generally 10-15 knots as a coastal trough drifts onshore. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. Seas forecast to build to 6-8+ft as winds veer SW at 20-30 knots; a few gusts to gale force remain possible in outer waters. Winds veer northwest to NE through Tuesday with seas decreasing to 1-3 ft srn and cntrl waters, 2-4 ft north of Hatteras. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 10 PM EST Friday for amz152- 154. Dense fog advisory until 1 am EST Friday for amz156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Friday to 1 am EST Saturday for amz156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 6 am to 10 PM EST Friday for amz135. && $$ Synopsis...mhx near term...ctc

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