Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 202024 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 324 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Synopsis... a warm front will linger over the area through Thursday. The front will shift back south Thursday night, then back to the north as a warm front this weekend, resulting in a continued unsettled weather pattern. High pressure will build in from the northwest early next week. && Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... as of 3 PM Wed...latest sfc analysis shows weak low developing off the SC coast with associated warm front lifting through eastern NC. The warm front is currently near Oregon Inlet and extending southward through Havelock and Jacksonville. Areas along the southern obx and Crystal Coast region have climbed into the low 60s, while inland areas remain in the mid 40s. The weak low will push north through the area tonight as the associated warm front pushes west/northwest and becomes less defined. Areas of light rain ongoing this afternoon, expected to taper off this evening as deeper moisture slides off the coast. Will continue chance pops overnight to account for possible additional rain moving in from the west as well as areas of drizzle with saturated low levels beneath a strong inversion. Despite mainly S to SW sfc flow expect areas of fog and sea fog to develop tonight with saturated low lvls and increasing temps and dewpoints. Locally dense fog will be possible across the area. Expect overnight lows to be early this evening, with temps rising overnight as warm front pushes westward. && Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/... as of 3 PM Wed...expect area to be in the warm sector Thu with the front pushing west/northwest of the area, with low lvl thicknesses soaring to around 1390m. Highs expected to be in the 60s to 70s, despite widespread clouds and areas of light rain. Though the NAM continues to keep inland areas in The Wedge showing highs only in the upper 50s. Best rain chances will be across the northern tier during the late morning and afternoon. An isolated tstm can't be ruled out along the coast during the afternoon as decent instability develops with the sly flow (mu cape values up to 600 j/kg and bulk shear around 30 kt). Areas of fog and sea fog likely in the morning could linger into the afternoon. && Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/... as of 320 PM Wed...mostly unsettled weather expected through the period, as a wavy front will linger across east NC through the weekend. Dry high pressure makes a brief appearance by late next weekend before yet another system takes shape at the end of the period. Thursday night through Friday...surface front initially over east NC will sag south and stall over SC and Georgia Friday morning. Isentropic lift over the front will result in more wet weather for most of the day. We will firmly be under The Wedge of cooler air on Friday and only anticipate highs mainly in the 50s. With plenty of cloud cover do not anticipate lows to drop beyond the low 40s. There is more uncertainty in the temperature forecast along the coast based on when the front intrudes inland, and a non-diurnal temperature curve in these locations is possible Friday night. Numerical guidance is generally too aggressive in eroding cad- associated cold wedges, and therefore will favor cooler guidance. Saturday...difficult forecast for Saturday particularly regarding temperatures, again tied to the erosion of The Wedge. A coastal trough will develop off the coast, although compared to the GFS the European model (ecmwf) has the trough axis closer to shore and thus warmer temperatures along the coast. Given the expected ongoing precipitation Saturday aiding in evaporational cooling and the aforementioned model issues with cad, will again favor the cooler guidance although bust potential is high. Saturday night and Sunday...non-diurnal temperature curve appears probable Saturday night as area comes under the influence of warm air advection ahead of a deep surface low lifting into the Great Lakes and associated cold front to the west. Despite better upper level support to our north, some showers ahead of the front is possible before it pushes offshore Sunday afternoon. With warm air advection and increasing heights temps could climb as high as the mid 70s Sunday before the front comes through. It will be quite breezy ahead of the front with brisk SW winds of 15-20 knots and higher gusts. Sunday night through Wednesday...dry high pres arrives late Sunday, though flow will be zonal, so expecting temps to remain above climo, with highs generally around 60. Wednesday may see the approach of the next system in a continued active storm track, although still quite a bit of uncertainty with its evolution and have kept chc pops this cycle. && Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/... short term /through Thursday/... as of 115 PM Wed...high confidence in widespread IFR and LIFR conditions to continue through the period, as low clouds remain locked in below a strong inversion. Rain will taper off tonight but areas of fog or drizzle will likely continue with low lvls saturated. Areas of dense fog will be possible. Low level wind shear expected to develop overnight and continue into Thu morning as SW low level jet strengthens. Fog and stratus will gradually improve Thursday, but may remain sub-VFR through 18z. Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... as of 320 PM Wed...above average confidence in sub-VFR conditions for remainder of the week in an unsettled weather pattern, with good chances of rain Friday and Saturday. Sunday afternoon will finally dry out with a return to VFR expected. Breezy SW winds Sunday morning of 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are possible at all sites. && Marine... short term /through Thursday/... as of 3 PM Wed...Small Craft Advisory continues for the waters and Pamlico Sound with gusty winds and dangerous seas. Latest obs show east/S winds 15-20 kt with seas 4-5 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 5-9 ft south. Winds 15 to 25 kt with higher gusts south will continue to veer tonight as warm front continues to push W/NW. Gusty S to southeast winds this evening then become SW overnight with speeds mainly 10 to 20 kts...poss a bit higher outer central and srn wtrs. Seas will continue at 6-9 ft overnight, highest south of Oregon Inlet. Winds and seas will slowly subside Thu as front lifts W/NW. SW winds 10-20 kt early Thu becoming west/SW during the afternoon with seas subsiding below 6 ft late in the day. Areas of sea fog may develop tonight and continue into Thursday. Locally dense fog will be possible at times resulting in navigational difficulties. Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... as of 320 PM Wed...poor boating conditions forecast through most of the period in an unsettled weather pattern. Seas 3-5 ft tonight build to 4-5 feet as flow veers NE at 15-20 knots behind a front. Some 6 foot seas are possible in outer cntrl and srn waters. Winds veer to S Saturday at generally 10-15 knots as a coastal trough develops. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to hold off Saturday and then quickly build back in ahead of a strong cold front on Sunday morning. Seas forecast to build to 6-8+ ft as winds veer SW at 20-30 knots. A few gusts to gale force are possible in outer waters. Winds veer west and then northwest on Monday with seas decreasing to 2-4 ft. && Tides/coastal flooding... as of 245 PM...minor flooding will be possible at times of high tide through Thursday due to higher than normal astronomical tides. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for amz135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Thursday for amz152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for amz150. && $$ Synopsis...mhx near term...cqd short term...cqd

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