Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 190236 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1036 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Synopsis... high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to influence the weather through tonight. A strong frontal system will move through the area through early Saturday. High pressure will build into the region early next week and continue through mid week. && Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... as of 1030 PM Thursday...forecast in good shape with minimal adjustments needed for the update. Southerly flow will continue to increase tonight as the gradient tightens between Atlantic high pressure and an approaching cold front from the west. As warm advection increases late tonight, deeper moisture will begin to stream in from the south and this should lead to the development of scattered showers late. The combination of mostly cloudy skies and southerly flow will result in mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. && Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/... as of 245 PM exceptionally high amplitude upper trough digging across the eastern US will develop a cutoff/stacked low over the Tennessee Valley Friday. This low, in combination with the persistent high offshore, will help develop deep layer southerly flow/moisture advection locally. Looks like numerous showers develop and advect into east NC from the south early Friday as layer streamlines surge to +13 g/kg, along with decent lift around base of advancing aforementioned upper low. Only iso embedded thunder expected as cape vals will be limited in the morning. May be better coverage of tsra, esp inland, Friday afternoon, as instability rises due to T/dew point vals increasing through the day. Raised temps slight Fri as almost all guidance shows low to poss mid 80s inland with a few peaks of mid day sun poss. Flow off the wtr will keep beaches a bit cooler. Severe risk increases Friday evening as the stacked low moves over the southern Appalachians, with very strong winds on its east side throughout the column. Guidance continues to show a low level jet with winds of 50-60 kt at 925 mb ahead of a cold front that will slowly cross the area Friday night. Gusty to strong winds will arrive with the jet, especially for coastal areas, and have upgraded the high wind watch to a High Wind Warning (>55 mph) for eastern Carteret through Hatteras Island, with a Wind Advisory for adjacent zones from coastal onlsow to the northern obx. Additionally, the primary band of prefrontal moisture convergence will cross the area Friday night and despite continued limited instability (about 1000 j/kg per ensemble guidance), showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts as they readily mix the very strong low level jet winds to the surface. An isolated tornado threat will be present as sfc winds are backed slightly to south-southeast providing helicity vals to ~350 m2/s2. Heavy rain rates are expected, and will lead to localized minor flooding as a slowly eastward propagating line of heavy convective showers/embedded thunder is likely. && Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... as of 300 PM Thu...dry weather is forecast to prevail the beginning through the middle of next week. Saturday and Sunday...the cold front will be near the coast by sunrise Saturday, and push off the coast during the morning. The stacked low lifting across the Great Lakes will remain in control of our weather, bringing atypical Post- frontal southwesterly flow and thus a lack of the cold air advection we typically see behind fropas. Subsidence aloft will bring predominantly settled conditions despite the lack of significant low level airmass change. The upper low aloft has enough strong lift associated with it to not completely discount a rogue iso shower or two, and kept slgt chc pops to account for this. The strong upr low will finally rotate through or near east NC on Sunday, again possibly squeezing out some sct/iso showers despite the limited moisture, esp in the afternoon as atms destabilizes. No changes to the chc to slgt chc shower, best chances nrn zones closer to vcnty of upr low. Threat comes to end by Sunday evening. Monday through Wednesday...subtropical high pressure is expected to ridge into the area early next week, bringing rain- free conditions and near to above normal temperatures. A backdoor cold front may make an approach towards our region during the period. This feature could be a Focal Point for another round of precip for the region, but with timing/evolution differences only going for slgt chc pops for now. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the period. && Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/... short term /through Fri/... as of 800 PM Thursday...VFR conditions expected thru the evening with some increase in mid and highs clouds while S winds will cont gust 20 to 25 kts. Later tonight gusty S winds cont with most guidance showing a period of MVFR cigs developing along with some sct prefrontal shra. Cigs will lift to VFR later Fri morn and into the aftn, however sct shra/tsra will cont with poss some pds of sub VFR. S winds will be quite strong Fri with gusts to around 30kts mid to late morn thru the aftn. More organized and poss severe storms expected aft 00z Sat. Long term /Friday night through Monday/... as of 305 PM Thu...flying conditions deteriorate rapidly Friday night with additional showers and thunderstorms impacting the terminals at times. Pre-frontal wind gusts of around 30 knots are still expected Friday evening. Severe storms producing very strong winds are also a threat Friday night, along with low level wind shear. More settled (vfr) conditions will gradually ensue again on Saturday and dominate through early next week. && Marine... short term /through Fri night/... as of 1030 PM Thursday...little changes needed to the forecast for the evening update. Very hazardous boating conditions develop Fri and cont Fri night. S winds will cont to grad increase tonight between approaching cold front and offshore high pres. S winds 15 to 25 kts this evening will reach 20 to 30 kts late with seas to 6 to 9 feet by morn. Strong low lvl south-southwest jet ahead of the approaching frontal system will move over the region late Fri and Fri night with gale to storm force winds expected. The strongest winds will be over the coastal wtrs from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout Fri evening and this is where have issued Storm Warning for winds gusts up to 50 kt. Winds shld be in 25 to 35 kt range with gusts to 40/45 kts most other wtrs and gale warnings have been issued. The strong winds will lead to seas reaching 15 to 20 ft outer wtrs off Hatteras Island Fri night. Long term /Sat through Tue/... as of 310 PM Thu... the cold front will cross the waters Saturday morning, and conditions will only slight improve through the day Saturday and into Sunday, as gusty SW winds are expected to continue in the Small Craft Advisory range, keeping seas elevated above 6 ft until Sunday overnight into Monday morning, when good boating conditions finally return by the beginning of the work week. && Tides/coastal flooding... as of 245 PM Thu...the strong S winds will build waves in the surf zone from Hatteras Island S to 8+ ft Fri aftn thru most of Sat. Waves in surf zone could reach 10 ft Fri night for the S facing beaches from cape hat S. This rough surf will likely lead to some beach erosion and poss local overwash. The strong winds will also increase wtr lvls over the northern Pamlico Sound into the Roanoke/Croatan sounds region Fri evening and Fri night...coastal flood advisories may be needed for the sound side areas in this region in later fcsts. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 4 am EDT Saturday for ncz047- 081-203. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT Friday through Friday evening for ncz195-196-199-203>205. High surf advisory from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM EDT Saturday for ncz195-196-199-204-205. Wind Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 2 am EDT Saturday for ncz195- 199. High Wind Warning from 8 PM Friday to 7 am EDT Saturday for ncz204-205. High Wind Warning from 8 PM Friday to 5 am EDT Saturday for ncz196. Marine...Gale Warning from 8 PM Friday to 5 am EDT Saturday for amz131- 136-137-230-231. Gale Warning from 2 PM Friday to 8 am EDT Saturday for amz135. Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 am EDT Saturday for amz152- 154. Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 5 am EDT Saturday for amz156. Gale Warning from 8 PM Friday to 6 am EDT Saturday for amz150. Gale Warning from 11 am Friday to 5 am EDT Saturday for amz158. && $$ Synopsis...mhx near term...rf/sk short term...rf

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