Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 251847 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 247 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Synopsis... a cold front will move through late Friday and Friday evening, followed by high pressure for the weekend. Another front is expected to move through the area late Sunday. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 220 PM Thu...high clouds this evening will gradually lower through the night as moisture profiles increase well ahead of a cold front. Most of the night will remain mild and dry but toward daybreak a few showers are possible especially over the far southwest part of the area. With the increase in cloud cover and light to moderate brz lows wl hold in the middle 60s for a large part of the area, with some upr 60s coast. && Short term /Friday/... as of 220 PM Thu...a cold front and associated mid level shortwave will approach the area Friday. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.5 and will continue trend of high chc pops developing in the morn with likely pops in the afternoon. Storm Prediction Center now has the area outlooked in a slight risk for svr weather, with the main threat damaging wind gusts. Sb cape values 1000 to 1500 j/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear increasing to 40-45 kt, and steep lapse rates support the threat of convection with a few strong to severe storms possible during the afternoon. SW winds will be breezy from mid morn on with highs most upr 70s to around 80. && Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... as of 240 PM Thursday...after precipitation moves offshore late Friday night, a mostly dry and warm period will follow for much of the upcoming week. Friday night...will maintain chance pops near the coast through late Friday night before moving offshore early Saturday morning. Decent cold air advection kicks in behind the front Saturday morning with lows in most areas in the low/mid 50s. Saturday through Thursday...most of the latter half of the weekend through the middle of next week will be characterized by a quasi-stationary frontal boundary to our north over Virginia with an east-west oriented area of high pressure ridging over the eastern Carolinas from the Atlantic. A mid-level ridge will build along the mid-Atlantic Monday through Wednesday keeping precipitation north of the area and enabling temperatures to warm from the 70s over the weekend to well into the 80s inland Tuesday/Wednesday and lows to moderate into the 60s. A weak cold front will being to approach the area by Thursday and have continued previous forecast of slight chance of shower/tstms for Thursday. && Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... short term /through Fri/... as of 1230 PM Thu...VFR conditions through most of tonight with clouds increasing and grad lowering. Cigs will lower to 5000 ft early Fri with cvrg of shra and tsra grad increasing thru the morn into the aftn. Outside of convection expect cont VFR Fri however there will be bouts of sub VFR when a shra/storm crosses a terminal. SW winds will gust aoa 20 kts from mid morn on Fri. Long term /Friday night through Tue/... as of 245 PM Thursday...would anticipate mostly VFR conditions through the period. Showers/storms should be east of the taf sites by late Friday evening with surface and upper level ridging building across the region into early next week. && Marine... short term /through Fri/... as of 220 PM Thu...mini surge of SW winds this evening will be close to Small Craft Advisory lvls central wtrs. Since marginal and brief will not issue headline and add gusts to 25 kt in text product. Winds diminish a little overnight but still in 10 to 20 kt range with 3 to 5 foot seas. Winds increase Fri ahead of approaching cold front with speeds reaching 20 to 30 kts in aftn. Will be close to gales for mainly central wtrs late but not slam dunk so will cont with strong Small Craft Advisory. As winds ramp up seas will build to 6 to 10 feet by evening. Long term /Friday night through Tue/... as of 245 PM Thursday...gusty winds and rough seas will persist Friday night and Saturday as cold front moves offshore. Seas should drop below 6 feet by Saturday night. High pressure will continue off the coast Sunday, with SW winds increasing to 15-20 kt, maybe some gusts to 25 kt ahead of another cold front Sunday evening. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sunday evening. Increasing SW winds will allow seas to build to 3-5 ft. The cold front will push through Sunday night with winds becoming north-northeast 10 to 20 kts. These winds will cont Mon with dir becoming more east 15 kt or less later Mon as high pres to the north begins to slide offshore. Seas 3-5 ft subsiding to 2-4 ft late Mon. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 10 am EDT Saturday for amz131-135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 9 am Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for amz152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 9 am Friday to 11 am EDT Saturday for amz156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for amz150. && $$ Synopsis...mhx

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