Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 212038 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 338 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 Synopsis... a cold front will cross the region tonight. The front is expected to then lift back to the north as a warm front this weekend, resulting in a continued unsettled weather pattern. High pressure will build in from the northwest early next week. && Near term /today/... as of 245 PM Thu...latest sfc analysis shows deep low over southern Quebec with attendant cold front pushing through the mid-Atlantic. The cold front will push south through enc tonight. Latest radar shows little to no precip across the area this afternoon and expect that to continue for the next few hours outside any isolated showers. Rain chances increase late tonight and early Friday morning as deeper moisture and increased isentropic lift develop across the area. Widespread locally dense sea fog continues to impact coastal areas south of Hatteras this afternoon. Expect fog to gradually lift late this afternoon and this evening, becoming more patchy in nature. Overnight lows dropping into the 40s. North-northeast winds will become breezy along the coast late. && Short term /tonight/... as of 245 PM Thu...the front will stall south of the area Friday, as high pressure builds in from the north setting up another cad type situation with overrunning precip. Good isentropic lift and deep moisture across the area will produce more light to locally moderate rainfall. Will continue likely to categorical pops through the day. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday, and could see highs early in the day and falling during the afternoon. && Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... as of 320 PM Thu...mostly unsettled weather expected to the end of the weekend with persistent cold air damming and a stalled front to the south. A cold front crosses the region Sunday ushering in a brief period of dry high pressure to start the new week. Another round of unsettled weather is possible at the end of the period. Friday night through Sunday...cold air damming will be ongoing Friday evening with isentropic upglide over a stalled frontal boundary positioned over Georgia/SC aiding in more soggy conditions although quantitative precipitation forecast should be light - under a quarter of an inch. With plenty of cloud cover, not forecasting lows beyond the low 40s. It does appear there will be a non-diurnal temperature curve closer to shore where a coastal trough will develop late overnight, although how far the feature impinges on the coast (and thus how much temperatures rise) is still a source of uncertainty. Numerical guidance is generally too aggressive in eroding cad-associated cold wedges, and therefore will continue to favor cooler guidance. Like yesterday, confidence in temperature forecasts are lower than normal. The coastal trough will persist off the coast and eventually push inland late in the day Saturday. A non-diurnal temperature curve appears probable Saturday night as the region comes under the influence of warm air advection ahead of a deep surface low lifting into the Great Lakes and associated cold front to the west. Models have slowed the low and therefore the front slightly, and have moved pops up slightly Sunday afternoon to account for this shift. Temps still expected to climb into the low to mid 70s before the front comes through. Breezy conditions still expected ahead of the front with brisk SW winds of 15-25 mph, with some gusts up to 30 mph. Sunday night through Wednesday...dry high pres arrives late Sunday with temps in the period generally in the low 60s. Wednesday night/Thursday may see a return of unsettled weather, although still uncertainty with its evolution and have kept only slight chance to low-end chance pops this cycle. Confidence in this period is lower than normal. && Aviation /21z Thursday through Tuesday/... short term /through Friday/... as of 245 PM Thu...challenging low confidence forecast through the period. Coastal sites ewn and oaj have lifted to VFR this afternoon, while pgv and isolated remain sub-VFR. Expect all sites to become MVFR to VFR for awhile this afternoon and evening, then lowering again overnight into Friday. Some patchy fog will be possible overnight, but cold front moving through should keep things fairly well mixed. The challenge will be the stratus. Several guidance sources show IFR/LIFR stratus re-developing again tonight and Friday. Confidence remains low, so will show MVFR conditions developing overnight and Friday. Widespread light rain moves into the area Friday morning. Long term /Fri night through Tuesday/... as of 320 PM Thu...above average confidence in sub-VFR Fri night into Sat in an unsettled weather pattern, with good chances of rain. Sunday afternoon will finally dry out with a return to VFR expected. Breezy SW winds Sunday morning of 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are possible at all sites. VFR conditions hold through Tuesday. && Marine... short term /through Friday/... as of 335 PM Thu...latest obs show west/northwest winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Locally dense sea fog continues across portions of the waters based on cameras, mainly south of Hatteras including the Pamlico Sound...so extended dfa through 7pm this evening for the central waters and Pamlico Sound and through 1am for the southern waters. Hopefully the fog will be improving this evening. A cold front will push through the waters tonight, with west-northwest winds becoming NE 10-15 kt after midnight. Models continue show a decent surge 15-25 kt behind the front beginning early Friday morning and continuing into Friday evening. Have put up another Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound for gusty winds and seas building to 4-6 ft. Long term /Fri night through Tuesday/... as of 320 PM Thu...poor boating conditions forecast through most of the period in an unsettled weather pattern. Small Craft Advisory conditions for outer srn and cntrl waters Friday evening subside to 3-4 feet in north to NE flow behind a front to the south. Winds veer to S Saturday evening at generally 10-15 knots as a coastal trough drifts onshore. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. Seas forecast to build to 6-8+ft as winds veer SW at 20-30 knots; a few gusts to gale force remain possible in outer waters. Winds veer northwest to NE through Tuesday with seas decreasing to 1-3 ft srn and cntrl waters, 2-4 ft north of Hatteras. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...dense fog advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for amz135-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 10 PM EST Friday for amz152- 154. Dense fog advisory until 1 am EST Friday for amz156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Friday to 1 am EST Saturday for amz156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 6 am to 10 PM EST Friday for amz135. && $$ Synopsis...mhx near term...cqd

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