Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 180210 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Synopsis... subtropical high pressure will continue to ridge into the area through mid week, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week. A weak front will cross the region Friday. && Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/... as of 10 PM Mon...Bermuda high pressure remains in control bringing light southwesterly surface flow overnight. Stratus within the moist boundary layer is expected to expand inland from the southern coast late tonight, potentially building to the ground as fog at times. Limited radiation cooling will ensure that low temps remain warm and muggy...in the low to mid 70s. && Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/... as of 315 PM Mon...a similar pattern is expected tomorrow with SW flow continuing and a sea breeze developing by late morning. Convective initiation along the sea breeze looks to occur a bit earlier tomorrow, around noon or so, but coverage will again be fairly scattered. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop inland and head to the NE into eastern NC tomorrow afternoon, and will linger into the evening hours across the coastal plain. High temps will again rise into the low 90s inland, and into the mid to upper 80s closer to the coast. && Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/... as of 320 PM Mon...hot and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday night. Somewhat drier weather is expected late week into the weekend with only a slight chance for a stray shower/thunderstorm, but hot and muggy conditions should persist. Wednesday through Thursday...the upper ridge will be flattened a bit by mid week as low amplitude shortwaves ride through main flow and bring somewhat better chances for convection. The best chances appear to be late Thu into Thu night with a comparatively stronger shortwave which could lead to enhanced/organized convection, and have high-end chance pops that period. Otherwise typical pulse type convection is expected Wed with best coverage in the afternoon through early evening during best daytime heating, and kept pops around 30-40 percent. Hot and humid conditions continue with highs around 90 inland to mid/upr 80s nearer the coast, and muggy 70s for overnight lows. Friday through Monday...still expecting a weak frontal passage Fri followed by somewhat drier moisture levels Friday afternoon into next weekend, thus will continue with a mainly dry forecast. Could see an uptick in shower/thunderstorm activity beginning early next week as moisture increases on southerly flow. The front will not bring much relief from the heat and humidity however, with hot temps and high humidities continuing as hts remain above climo. Highs in the 90s inland to 80s beaches with lows in the 70s. && Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/... short term /through Tuesday afternoon/ as of 730 PM Mon...VFR conditions will prevail tonight, but the threat for scattered to broken stratus coverage spreading northward from the southern coast exists once again. Have opted for scattered coverage for kewn and koaj, with mostly clear conditions for kiso and kpgv, where the stratus is less likely to reach. The stratus could occasionally build to the surface, creating visibility restrictions, but coverage and duration will be very limited and confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this point. VFR conditions and gusty southwesterly winds will prevail once again during the day Tuesday. Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... as of 345 PM Mon...scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through Fri morning with brief periods of sub VFR conditions. Could also be some overnight/early morning fog each morning with sufficient low level moisture expected. Gusty conditions possible thurs/Fri with passage of a weak front. && Marine... short term /through Tue/... as of 10 PM Mon...Bermuda high pressure remains in control through Tuesday, brining persistent southwesterly flow. Moderate winds overnight will become gusty once again Tuesday midday into early evening as an mesoscale thermal gradient once again tightens. Strongest winds, with occasional gusts to 25 kts, will exist across the Pamlico Sound and along the waters near Hatteras Island and the northern Outer Banks. Seas are currently 2-3 ft in weak southerly windswell, with some 4 ft seas returning with the gusty winds Tuesday afternoon. Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... as of 345 PM sun...SW winds 10-20 kt are expected through Thu morning, with the strongest flow expected in the late afternoons and evenings due to increasing land/water thermal gradient when we could see ocnl gusts to 25 kt, esp for the Pamlico Sound and the srn/ctrl waters. Currently do not anticipate conditions to last long enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Seas will increase a bit to 3-5 ft, with a choppy 5 second periodicity. Small Craft Advisory conditions are probable with a front moving through Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon as SW flow is forecast to increase to 15-25 kt with seas building up to 6-8 ft. As front pushes offshore winds will veer to the northwest 10-15 kt Fri afternoon and will help knock seas down to 3-5 ft by Friday evening. North winds around 10 kt early Sat will back to the west in the afternoon with seas 2-4 ft. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...mhx near term...sgk/cb

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