Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmhx 231322 afdmhx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 922 am EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will be centered offshore through mid week. A mainly dry weak cold front will drop south into the region Wednesday night and Thursday then dissipate. A stronger cold front will move through late late Friday, followed by high pressure for the weekend. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... as of 920 am changes planned with sunny skies and warm temps...80 to 85 inland and 70s beaches. Prev discussion...atms will remain dry with cont mainly sunny skies. As high pres slides offshore will see light SW winds grad develop and coupled with rising thicknesses will lead to highs in lower 80s inland to 70s beaches. Winds near the coast dominated by local sea and sound breezes, and will be a bit gustier, up to 15 kt, with decent land/sea thermal gradient developing this afternoon. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/... as of 330 am Tue...breezy conditions will become light, 5 kt or less, after sunset this evening. Temps rise to above climo as continuing building hts/thicknesses overspread the eastern Continental U.S.. lows range from the mid/upr 50s interior to low 60s beaches with continued mainly clr skies. && Long term /Wednesday through Monday/... as of 3 am Tue...high pressure will be positioned off the coast Wednesday with a backdoor cold front dropping into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a cold front Friday and Friday night, followed by drier weather over the weekend and early next week. Wednesday through Thursday...high pressure off the southeast coast will be pushes southward through mid week while upper ridging flattens as a mid level shortwave moves across the mid- Atlantic states and the attendant backdoor cold front pushes into the region Wednesday night and dissipates Thursday. Models slightly wetter, especially the GFS, ahead and along the front and will continue SC pops Wednesday afternoon and night across the northern portions of the forecast area. Included slight chance of thunder for Wednesday afternoon with MUCAPE peaking around 1000-1500 j/kg and steep low level lapse rates but instability decreases in the evening and expect mainly isolated showers overnight. Generally dry Thursday but cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon with the lingering frontal boundary and sea breeze developing in the afternoon. Temps will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s inland to mid to upper 70s coast. Lows will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday and Friday night...a cold front and associated mid-level shortwave will cross the area Friday and Friday night. Precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches Friday and Friday night and continue high chance pops for this period. With surface-based cape values of 500-750 j/kg, will include some scattered thunderstorms, but wind fields do not merit any organized severe threat at this time. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. Saturday through Monday...axis of mid-level trough moves offshore fairly quickly Saturday with generally dry and slightly cooler conditions over the weekend. High pressure will be centered over the area Saturday, then will slide offshore Sunday into Monday while continuing to ridge into the region. Flow aloft will generally be zonal with a few weak disturbances moving through the area which may bring an isolated shower mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs Sat expected in the low to mid 70s inland to mid to upper 60s coast, then will warm a few degrees each day Sunday into Monday. && Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/... short term /through tonight/... as of 7 am Tue...VFR sky clear through the taf pd. Wind light to calm this morning turn SW to south-southwest during the afternoon, though no higher than 10 kt. Continued clr skies tonight with light S to SW breezes around 5 kt. Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... as of 3 am Tue...pred VFR conditions expected through Thursday, but cannot rule out brief periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night as a backdoor front pushes into the area. Given light winds, some patchy morning fog is possible as well, but extent will be limited. Areas of sub VFR conditions will be possible Friday as a cold front and associated mid-level shortwave produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. High pressure builds into the area Saturday with VFR conditions dominating. && Marine... short term /through tonight/... as of 920 am Tue...only change was to cap seas at 3 ft rest of today as all buoys now 3 feet or less. Prev disc...light west winds around 10 kt early this morning with 2-4 ft seas. High pres will be centered offshore through the period. A land/sea thermal gradient develops this afternoon with warming temps inland, and will cause nearshore winds to turn S but remain about 10 kt or so. Gradient increases tonight with winds increasing into the 10-20 kt range, possibly gusting upwards of 25 kt over the Gulf Stream waters, and may see brief but marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions develop around or prior to sunrise. Will not issue Small Craft Advisory at the moment as thinking the conditions will be quite marginal and brief. Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... as of 3 am Tue...lingering gusty SW winds Wednesday morning will diminish a bit during the afternoon. Could still see a few hours of Small Craft Advisory conditions across the central waters through mid Wed morning. SW winds 10-20 kt Wed, becoming north/NE blo 15 kt by late Wed night behind the front, then will be variable 5-15 kt Thu with the front dissipating across the area and winds becoming predominantly southerly by late in the day. SW winds increase to around 10-20 kt late Thu night and 15-25 kt Fri ahead of the next frontal system that will cross the area Fri night, followed by a north/NE surge around 15-25 kt late Fri night and Sat. Good chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop Fri and possibly continuing into Sat. Seas briefly drop to 2-4 ft Thu but will likely build back to 4-6 ft Fri and Fri night and could continue into Sat with the northerly surge behind the front. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...mhx

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