Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmkx 240628 afdmkx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 128 am CDT Fri may 24 2019 Update... forecast remains on track right now as rain showers and weakening storms make their way toward southern WI. This will begin a very wet day ahead. && Aviation(06z tafs)... conditions remain quiet for now however early this morning showers will begin to push into the region. Initially the only concerns with these morning showers will be temporary MVFR visibilities associated with heavier pockets of rain and a chance for a rumble of thunder. Into the late morning MVFR ceilings will push in along with continuing showers. Throughout the rest of the day there will be concerns for MVFR visibilities with showers and MVFR ceilings with potential for a few periods of IFR ceilings. Into the afternoon and evening we will have chances for thunderstorms for southern WI, which will come with some concerns for temporary IFR visibilities in thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong as well with wind gusts and hail as the primary threats. Into the evening we will also have some low level wind shear of 35 kts to 2 kft from the southwest. The main concerns will be limited into the overnight period as lower ceilings move out, wind shear ends, with mostly rain showers remaining, though thunder cannot be ruled out. && Previous discussion... (issued 931 PM CDT Thu may 23 2019) Update... Showers may arrive in the west a bit earlier than expected tonight...with latest model trends suggesting around 4 am. Still looks like limited instability initially, though some thunder will be possible. This first round might take much of the morning to move through. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for tonight. Marine... Low pressure over southern Ontario will move to New England late tonight. High pressure over northern Minnesota will move over Lake Michigan late tonight and Friday morning bringing lighter winds. Low pressure will then move from the northern Great Plains to Ontario Friday and Saturday. Winds will become easterly for Friday, then continue to veer to modest southerly winds for late Friday night and Saturday. There could be some fog development tonight into Friday morning, particularly in southwest parts of the lake. Previous discussion... (issued 650 PM CDT Thu may 23 2019) Update... Quiet weather is expected through much of tonight. Mostly clear skies will give way to high clouds late evening into tonight. Could see some showers and isolated thunder arrive in the west by daybreak tomorrow morning. The forecast looks on track through tonight. Aviation(00z tafs)... VFR conditions will prevail into tonight. Could see some low clouds arrive in the northeast off the lake later tonight as wind become onshore...with the best chance from West Bend northward. Lower clouds and showers are then likely to spread into southern Wisconsin from the southwest Friday morning. There could be a little thunder with the showers. Low clouds may hang around most places through the day Friday and into the evening. There could be somewhat of a lull in the precip during the afternoon hours tomorrow, with the chance for showers and storms picking back up late afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms could reach severe limits. Previous discussion... (issued 343 PM CDT Thu may 23 2019) Discussion... Tonight through Friday night...forecast confidence medium. The breezy wly winds will cease by early evening as the mixing ends and a ridge of high pressure approaches. The high will shift ewd on Fri while an occluded low will track from the nrn Great Plains into Ontario, Canada by 12z Sat. The warm front will approach on Fri with 850-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis occurring. Thus light to briefly MDT rain is expected during the day, however the warm front and pws of 1.7 inches will move into srn WI by late afternoon and evening. The low level jet will slowly veer through the night with continued moisture transport and minimal corfidi vector motion. Thus repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over srn WI and nrn Illinois. Flash flooding is a concern along with a marginal to slight risk of severe storms. The flooding potential and severe potential will be highest along and south of a line from Mineral Point to Madison to Port Washington. Will issue a hydrologic outlook for now but a Flash Flood Watch is possible in later forecasts. Saturday and Sunday - confidence...medium main forcing expected to be in the morning as shortwave and frontal boundary move through. Highest pops will be in the southeast cwa. The GFS, and to a lesser extent, the Gem, redevelop diurnally driven. Scattered type activity in parts of the western/northern cwa. None of the models are taking the front to our south. So with enough sunshine and instability buildup we could see this activity redevelop in the afternoon. The front is then proggd to swing through Saturday night with a continued chance of shra/tsra. The surface/850 front will then exit the southeast Sunday morning with precip chances in the south gradually ending. Sunday afternoon and Sunday night - confidence...medium looking at squeezing in a little better shot of dry weather this period as a ridge of high pressure puts a brief halt to organized rainfall. Will have to watch later Sunday night as return waa pattern sets up pretty quick, so some activity could sneak into western areas later in the night. Monday through Wednesday - confidence...medium active pattern shaping up as a warm air advection regime takes hold Monday with low pressure in the northern plains. Should get at least one round of convection in the morning into the early afternoon hours Monday at the time of greatest waa in combo with a shortwave. May get a relative minimum in organized precip Monday night into Tuesday as we await the ejection of of main mid level energy/wave. This should result in more storms Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday per insinuation of 00z European model (ecmwf). So active, unsettled pattern to continue. Wednesday night and Thursday - confidence...medium looks like things will settle down. Weak front/trough axis could kick off some showers/storms Thursday. Aviation(21z tafs)...VFR conditions tnt then showers and isolated tstorms will overspread srn WI Fri am into the early afternoon with cigs of 1-3 kft developing. MVFR vsbys will occur with the precip. At times. Marine...a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM for breezy west winds. Much lighter winds are then expected for tnt- Fri with winds becoming Ely. The winds will then veer to sly for late Fri nt-Sat but remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. && Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Lm...none. &&

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