Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmkx 190319 afdmkx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1019 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Update... No additional updates planned for this evening. && Aviation(06z tafs)... MVFR ceilings will gradually improve overnight into Friday morning, scattering out to VFR, and then eventually clearing from northwest to southeast. Windy conditions are expected, with north winds increasing overnight, and remaining very gusty through Friday afternoon. && Marine... North winds will increase tonight across both the nearshore and open waters. Marginal gales are expected over the south half of the open waters, and south of Port Washington in the nearshore starting tonight and continuing through Friday. Waves will build appreciably as well tonight and Friday, especially closer to the southern part of the lake. Weak high pressure will bring weaker winds to the area late Saturday into the first part of next week. && Previous discussion... (issued 400 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019) Short term... Tonight and Friday...forecast confidence is high. Patchy drizzle will continue into the early evening within the moist and cyclonic low level flow with a clearing trend late. A 120 kt nly jet stream over the High Plains will dig an upper trough into the lower MS River Valley with a developing sfc low from the lower MS River Valley into the Ohio River valley. The upper trough and low pressure area will then slowly move ewd through the day. Over srn WI, brisk nly winds will maintain cold and dry air advection tnt with a clearing trend. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are expected near Lake Michigan. The nly winds will remain fairly breezy on Fri due to mixing and the pressure gradient btwn the sfc ridge approaching from the west and the low over the Ohio River valley. Some high clouds will linger over se WI Fri am but overall mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Friday night through Saturday night...forecast confidence is high. Models are in good agreement with an axis of high pressure passing slowly southeast through the region during this period. This should bring dry conditions to the area. Low relative humidity values down to around 25 percent are expected Saturday, with modest north winds. Mild temperatures are expected Saturday, with 60s well inland. 50s are expected near the lake with north to northeast winds. Warm air advection kicking in Saturday night should bring milder lows into the area. Long term... Sunday through Monday night...forecast confidence is medium. Warm air advection continuing into Sunday should lead to warm highs into the 70s inland, though areas near the lake will be cooler with a lake breeze. Winds may also turn northeast toward Sheboygan and Port Washington, as the inverted trough possibly slides south through the area. Some uncertainty with this, as the 12z GFS/NAM/Canadian are quicker with bringing this south through the area than the 12z European model (ecmwf). In fact, the European model (ecmwf) takes low pressure east through southern Wisconsin Monday, with the other models pushing this system southward Sunday night. There is some 850 mb convergence that lingers in the area Monday into Monday night on these models as well. Thus, left blended model pops as is for later Sunday into Monday night, mainly for showers. Tuesday through Thursday...forecast confidence is low. More uncertainty in this period, as the GFS brings low pressure east through northern Illinois during this period. The Canadian is further south and brushes the area with showers, and the European model (ecmwf) is totally dry with high pressure. So, kept blended model pops going for now. Temperatures should remain mild inland, with cooler readings most days near the lake with onshore winds. && Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Lm...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for lmz080-644>646-669-671- 673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for lmz643. &&

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