Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmkx 172028 afdmkx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 228 PM CST sun Feb 17 2019 Short term... Rest of this afternoon and tonight...forecast confidence is high... Generally light to moderate snow continues across the area this afternoon. There have been a few bands of heavier snow, which have reduced visibilities to a half mile or less at times. Large scale lift will begin to wane late this afternoon into this evening, as the 850 mb and 700 mb lows rotate through the area. Light snow showers will likely persist until after midnight, but the intensity should decrease with time. The exception will be near the Lakeshore, where increasingly favorable winds and falling 850 mb temps will result in lake effect snow taking shape. We will likely see multiple bands of lake effect snow showers develop this evening, which should then organize into a single band tonight as convergence improves. That band will then skirt the shoreline through the night as winds become increasingly northerly with time. We look to be on track for a storm total of 3-6 inches of snow across the advisory area, with local maxima of 5-6 inches west of Madison and along the lake, and 3-5 in between. No changes are planned to the area or timing of the Winter Weather Advisory. For the Lakeshore counties, the vast majority of the snow should be done by 6 am, though a few light snow showers may linger into the mid morning hours on Monday. Given that any appreciable accumulation should be over by 6 am, that still looks like a good end time for the Winter Weather Advisory for this area. Will continue with a 3 am expiration for the counties to the west, though at least a few tiers may be able to be expired early. Monday and Monday night...forecast confidence high... High pressure will build into the area Monday into Monday night. No precipitation is expected, with highs on Monday ranging from the mid 20s south to around 20 north, and lows Monday night in the low single digits above zero. Long term... Tuesday...forecast confidence is high: High pressure will build overhead on Tuesday, with plenty of sunshine expected. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal. Tuesday night and Wednesday...forecast confidence is medium to high: Low pressure passing through the region will bring another shot of accumulating snow to southern Wisconsin Tuesday night and Wednesday. There are still moderate differences among models with the track and strength of the low as well as how much drier air aloft will move in from the south. Models overall have mainly snow...though there has been an increasing trend in a loss of ice aloft across roughly the southeast half of the forecast area on Wednesday. Thus kept a mention of a mix with freezing rain going. A blend of model solutions is still giving roughly 3-5 inches of snow for this period (higher NW and lower se)...though still plenty of time for the finer details to change. Thursday through Sunday...forecast confidence is medium to low: High pressure is expected to bring dry weather and near normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another low will take aim at the region next weekend. Models are still not in very good agreement with this system, with a full range of solutions still in play. There overall picture points to a decent shot at snow across at least the NW half of the forecast area, with maybe some rain mixing in southeast. A lot of time for the details of this one to change. Hopefully the picture will clear up a bit over the next day or two. && Aviation(21z taf update)... IFR will continue today across the area, with occasional drops to LIFR in heavier snow bands. Snow will slowly diminish in intensity at Madison by evening, but will continue further east as a lake effect band forms. This lake effect will likely impact Milwaukee and Kenosha, and may just skirt the Waukesha area. Widespread IFR is expected, with occasional drops to LIFR. Winds will be easterly this afternoon, becoming more northeasterly with time. Winds then become northerly toward Monday morning. && Marine... Gusty east winds will become northeasterly this evening, and then transition to northerly late tonight. Waves will reach 4-6 feet in the ice free portions of the nearshore, and a Small Craft Advisory continues though mid morning on Monday. High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night, remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time. && Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Monday for wiz052-059-060- 065-066-071-072. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 am CST Monday for wiz056-062>064- 067>070. Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am CST Monday for lmz643>646. &&

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