Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmkx 231426 afdmkx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 926 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Update...clearing trend underway as northwest cwa has become sunny. Pressure gradient to slacken with time as winds turn onshore this afternoon. Pc && Marine...low pressure over northeast lower Michigan will continue to pull into Ontario today. Pressure gradient will slacken especially over the Southern Lake. Winds will turn onshore in the nearshore waters while the gradient lingers longer in the northern reaches of the lake. Will let Small Craft Advisory expire naturally at 15z. Pc && Previous discussion... (issued 600 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019) Update... Area of showers have moved east of the area, as the 500 mb shortwave trough moves east across the region. Expect low clouds to linger for a time this morning, before mixing out by early to middle afternoon. Gusty north northwest winds into this morning will gradually weaken this afternoon. Lake breeze with east winds is expected by middle afternoon. Aviation(12z tafs)... Area of showers have moved east of the terminals. Low clouds with ceilings down to 1000 feet or so should linger for a time this morning, before gradually mixing out by early to middle afternoon. Gusty north northwest winds into this morning should weaken this afternoon, becoming light tonight. Winds will shift onshore by mid afternoon near Lake Michigan, including Milwaukee and Kenosha. Mostly clear skies are then expected tonight. Previous discussion... (issued 333 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019) Short term... Today and tonight...forecast confidence is high. Area of showers associated with mid-level differential cyclonic vorticity advection will gradually push east across and east of the forecast area early this morning. This trend is supported by the synoptic models and cams. It should exit the eastern areas by 12z this morning. Area of low clouds should linger for a time this morning, as modest cold air advection on gusty north northwest winds brings drier air into the area. This should help scatter out the low clouds this afternoon. Winds should become less gusty this afternoon as well. High pressure moving into and through the region tonight will bring mostly clear skies. Highs today should reach the middle 60s inland, given sunshine and good mixing this afternoon. Winds will turn onshore by middle afternoon near Lake Michigan, cooling temperatures into the 50s in those areas. Lows tonight should drop into the upper 30s east to lower 40s west, with light winds and clear skies expected. Long term... Wednesday/Wednesday night...forecast confidence high... High pressure will be overhead to start the day on Wednesday, with southwesterly winds increasing through the day as the high begins to push east of the area. Temperatures on Wednesday look to warm to around 70 degrees. Thursday and Friday...forecast confidence moderate to high... A shortwave aloft and associated cold front will approach the area on Thursday morning, with the front sweeping across the area during the day. There are still some sizable discrepancies within the guidance as to how widespread precipitation will be with this front. At least a few showers seem likely, though coverage may be somewhat sparse. Intensity should be light, given limited moisture return ahead of the frontal passage. Despite the chance for rain, highs on Thursday should still reach the mid to upper 60s. Somewhat cooler temperatures then build into the area for Friday, with highs in the low 60s. Saturday through the middle of next week...forecast confidence moderate... Strong low pressure is then expected to develop across the Central Plains and move through the region on Saturday. Confidence is increasing in precipitation chances, though there is still considerable uncertainty with the track of the surface low. A more southerly solution would result in cold, windy, rainy conditions on Saturday, with a brisk east wind off of Lake Michigan. A more southerly solution would bring somewhat warmer temperatures and probably a few thunderstorms along with the rain. The 00z guidance suite seems to be converging on a more southerly solution, though there's still plenty of time for things to change. We'll likely get a brief break in the rain behind the Saturday system, but most of next week continues to look quite active, as a series of shortwaves ripple through quasi-zonal flow aloft. Given the orientation of the upper level flow, we will need to be mindful of the potential for any fronts stalling across the region, and the associated threat for heavy rain. Aviation(09z taf updates)... Area of showers will move east of the terminals by 12z this morning, with some visibility values down to 4 to 5 miles. Low clouds with ceilings down to 500 feet or so should linger for a time this morning, before gradually mixing out by early to middle afternoon. Gusty north northwest winds into this morning should weaken this afternoon, becoming light tonight. Winds will shift onshore by mid afternoon near Lake Michigan, including Milwaukee and Kenosha. Mostly clear skies are then expected tonight. Marine... Nearshore waters... Small Craft Advisory continues until 15z this morning across the nearshore waters. Gusty north to northwest winds are expected into the middle morning hours, before weakening. Waves of 2 to 4 feet are expected. The winds should shift to the east by middle afternoon with the lake breeze. Light winds and waves are then expected tonight into Wednesday morning, lingering into Wednesday night. West to northwest winds Friday may reach Small Craft Advisory levels. Open waters... Gusty north to northwest winds up to 30 knots are expected into this morning. These winds should weaken this afternoon into tonight, with high pressure moving across the region. Gusty north winds may develop Friday. && Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for lmz643>646. &&

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