Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 kmlb 230748 afdmlb Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 248 am EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ..well above normal temperatures continue this weekend... Discussion... today...central Florida will remain on the western periphery of a large ridge centered just east of the Bahamas. Higher moisture trapped beneath a sharp inversion around 750 mb (7500-8000 feet) will increase cloud cover and introduce a slightly better chance for showers relative to Friday. Will keep a small chance for showers along the space and Treasure coasts this morning before transitioning coverage toward the interior as daytime heating kicks in. Pops for today will average around 20% areawide, with better chances (30-40%) expected to hold off until around sunset along the I-4 corridor. Unusually warm temps continue, though records will likely remain out of reach given the expected increase in cloud cover. Tonight...a closed low moving toward the Great Lakes and its attendant surface front advancing across the southeast states will force the ridge to weaken/retreat some overnight. As low- level winds veer to the south and southwest, an area of weak convergence is expected to develop in the vicinity of the Interstate 4 corridor. Did not stray far from both mesoscale/global guidance and kept the best chance (30-40%) for showers across this area. Tapered pops to less than 20% south of Titusville and Kissimmee where coverage looks low. Sun-Mon...deep layer ridging with center just east of the Bahamas will flatten with flow becoming more zonal across the region as occasional impulses aloft traverse the Florida Peninsula. The surface ridge axis across the southern peninsula will get shunted further east and south with the approach of a cold front that will pass through ecfl Sun night. This front will maintain its identity but remain stymied over the Florida Straits/South Florida through the remainder of this period. Initial light southwesterly surface winds will veer wrly into late Sun afternoon then northwest/north Sun night, Post-frontal. As high pressure noses in from the northwest during the day on Mon winds will continue to veer to NE/ENE/E through Mon night. Wind speeds may increase to around 15 mph on sun, but will increase to 15-20 mph with higher gusts on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the former front and fairly Stout high pressure to the north. Mid-upper level support for this approaching front will be minimal and models are not too excited for precip. Have kept a generous 20pct (schc) mention in during the day and early evening over land trending drier from west to east Sun night. Maintain a schc Martin County on Mon for residual moisture and proximity to front across South Florida. Continue to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast through this point. Will need to watch for near record highs for one more day on sun before cooler temperatures behind the front filter southward Sun night and Mon. Maxes well into the 80s on sun, then l-M 70s for highs on Mon, with coastal Volusia/N. Brevard perhaps struggling into the u60s. Mins Sun night/Mon morning in the l-M 60s except M- u50s north of I-4. Mins Mon night/Tue morning in the 50s/l60s most of the interior except m60s coastal St. Lucie/Martin counties and adjacent barrier islands. Tue-Fri...zonal flow in the mid-levels through the extended timeframe. Subtle mid-level impulses will traverse the region. Medium range models trying to figure out when to usher previous frontal boundary back northward with associated moisture and precip. Placement, timing of features (surface/aloft) still uncertain as consistency with medium range models not quite there yet. It is becoming more apparent that moisture will begin to override this boundary northward late Mon night into Tue as pwats surge to 1.40 inches north of I-4 to near 1.90 inches Martin County. We maintain an easterly surface flow with a light southerly component through the low-levels. Expect a tightening precip gradient with schc (20pct) I-4 corridor to 50pct south of Vero Beach. Mid-levels fairly cool and cannot rule out isolated lightning storms, but not going to include mention in grids/zones just yet. We continue the gradual trend of increasing precip chances northward Tue night as the boundary moves northward into south-central Florida. Confident enough to bump the I-4 corridor up to 30pct and 40-50pct southward. Models insistent on Wed being a wet day with 50pct pops areawide and the surface boundary very slowly moving northward. The position of the boundary into/past mid-week will be key to where higher precip values are as pieces of energy embedded within the zonal flow continue to traverse the region. Keeping elevated pops (40pct) in areawide on Thu as a result. The rather stubborn/unsettled pattern may very well continue into Fri though trend of moisture surges combined with disturbances aloft remain tricky to time. For now will keep 30-40pct mention in the forecast. Still would not be surprised to see isolated mention of thunder in a few periods, but confidence not high enough at the moment for inclusion. Highs near normal in the 70s on Tue with a gradual uptick/increase into late work-week. Lows a little above normal Tue night/Wed morning, then well above normal through the extended timeframe. && Aviation... a pocket of higher moisture will keep the chance for MVFR, perhaps even IFR, ceilings across our interior terminals (ism-mco-sfb- lee) this morning. Expect ceilings to rise by mid morning with generally VFR cigs this afternoon. Rain showers chances will transition from the Treasure Coast terminals this morning to inland sites this afternoon. Expect a chance of showers to persist across the ism-mco-sfb-dab corridor well past sunset tonight. && Marine... today-tonight...the western Atlantic high will retreat some over the next 24 hours as a surface front moves across the Gulf Coast. As a result, the local pressure gradient will tighten a bit as winds veer to the south and southwest. Winds generally 10-15 knots into this afternoon will increase closer to 15 knots overnight. Seas 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet offshore through midday will become 3-4 feet everywhere into tonight, perhaps up to 5 feet over the offshore Volusia waters. Sun-Wed...a cold front will move across the local coastal waters Sun night and settle across South Florida. This same boundary will gradually and slowly venture back northward into central Florida Tue overnight through Wed as a warm front. Isolated-widely scattered shower chances on sun- Sun night with a small threat south of Sebastian Inlet on Mon-Mon night, but mostly dry. Precip chances begin to increase Tue-Wed night from the south with advancement north of the warm frontal boundary. While not in the forecast just yet, isolated lightning storms cannot be ruled out Tue-Wed night as the pattern remains rather unsettled with low confidence during this time. Initial southwesterly flow will veer wrly late sun into sun evening ahead of the front, then northwest/north overnight as it passes through. Winds continue to veer to NE/ENE/E through Mon night as high pressure tries to build into the area. From the south, Tue night-Wed, winds continue to veer to east-southeast/se/S with the northward moving boundary. Wind speeds at or below 15 kts into late sun, but will gradually increase through the night up to around 20 kts areawide by daybreak Mon morning as recent models have come in a bit stronger with winds. The pgrad remains tight into Mon with a slow diminishing trend Mon overnight into mid- week. Seas will be a bit slower to respond with 3-4 ft near shore and perhaps up to 5 ft well offshore north of the cape early in the period. As the winds increase seas will build to 3-5 ft near shore and 4-6 ft offshore (north of Sebastian inlet) by daybreak Mon morning. Seas may approach 7 ft over the Gulf Stream thru Mon night before gradually subsiding into the extended from here. Cautionary statements/advisories may be necessary Sun night into at least early Tue. && Climate... record highs and warm mins for the next few days. Sat Feb 23 sun Feb 24 hi-maximum hi-min hi-maximum hi-min dab 87 2013 69 2013 88 2012 68 1962 mco 89 2013 69 2013 90 1962 68 1962 sfb 88 2013 70 2013 89 2012 70 1962 mlb 90 1961 72 2018 92 1962 72 2018 vrb 89 2008 73 1961 89 2012 71 2018 fpr 89 2932 71 1979 90 2012 70 1949 && Preliminary point temps/pops... dab 83 67 84 55 / 20 50 20 10 mco 86 69 89 62 / 20 30 20 10 mlb 85 68 86 64 / 20 20 20 20 vrb 84 66 88 66 / 20 10 20 20 Lee 86 69 87 57 / 20 30 20 10 sfb 86 68 87 60 / 20 40 20 10 orl 86 70 87 61 / 20 40 20 10 fpr 84 66 87 66 / 20 10 20 20 && Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... Florida...none. Am...none.

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