Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmpx 182346 afdmpx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 646 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Update... issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below. && Short term...(this evening through Friday night) issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers have been observed today with the passage of the upper level trough. Clearing skies are expected tonight with a surface ridge beginning to build-in. Skies should be mostly clear by 06z Friday, which will allow temperatures to cool into the 30s overnight. H850 temperatures will gradually warm to 3-4c during the day, and with clear skies, mixing up to h850 will be likely. Thus, temperatures on Friday will be seasonable with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. Winds will shift to out of the south Friday night allowing for return flow and mild Friday night lows in the 40s. Long term...(saturday through thursday) issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 The main concern in the extended period relates to temperatures Saturday afternoon, and the speed of the cold front moving south late Saturday night, and into Sunday. Current model trends have slowed the cold frontal passage this weekend. The ec model remains the slowest, while the GFS is more progressive and sweeps the front through Minnesota by Sunday morning. Either way, both models, including the Gem support a thermal ridge moving across Minnesota Saturday. Models have also trended toward a warmer scenario for highs Saturday afternoon. A blend of the models also support higher temperatures than previous runs. Thus, and in combination of a good directional flow from the southwest, highs will rise into the 60s/70s statewide, with a few 80s not out of the question along the Buffalo Ridge in west central/southwest Minnesota. Winds will also increase ahead of this front, but not abnormally strong for late April. These winds do support better mixing in the boundary layer which will lead to dew points mixing out, or much lower than models depict. Therefore, breezy conditions, lower dew points, and higher temperatures, will lead to much lower humidity levels. Although it has been wet, fire weather concerns are possible. As previously said, the weekend front has slowed and with the anticipated pooling of moisture along this front, precipitation chances may also be on the increase. Only the ec has a bit more anomalous moisture advection compared to the GFS/Gem, but this is mainly related to the slower frontal passage. Current forecast has chance or slight chance of showers late Saturday night, and into Sunday. Depending upon the speed of this front, and if the ec is more correct in the speed, there is an increasing chance of convection Sunday afternoon, especially along the Iowa border. Confidence has increased to support at least scattered showers Sunday, with lower chances Sunday night/Monday. Again, this is related to the speed of the front, and how much energy holds behind it for chances of precipitation Sunday night/Monday. Beyond this weekend, and dependent on the frontal boundary location, early next week should be dry and seasonable. The main upper level flow remains conducive for most of the active weather to occur well south or north of our region. Temperatures and precipitation chances should remain near normal next week, but highs this time of year rise into the low to mid 60s. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this taf set. Some mid- level ceilings over eastern Minnesota into western WI will dissipate this evening, resulting in few high clouds at best overnight through tomorrow as high pressure slides across the region. Breezy north winds this evening will settle down and gradually back to northwest and west through tomorrow evening. Kmsp...no additional weather concerns. /Outlook for kmsp/ Sat...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. Sun...VFR. Chc -shra. Wind NE 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. && Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Minnesota...none. && $$

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