Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmpx 170129 afdmpx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 829 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019 Updated for 00z aviation discussion... issued at 645 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019 && Short term...(this evening through Monday night) issued at 238 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019 Not a lot happening during the short term as a very weak boundary, currently stretched out from near Redwood Falls to Long Prairie, gradually shifts east through Monday night. Satellite this afternoon shows some bumpier cu going up along this diffuse boundary, but it's doing so in environment with MLCAPE values of 100 or 200 j/kg, with little forcing on the front and the main upper forcing coming out of nodak and remaining to our north. Through the rest of the afternoon, showers will continue to try and develop near the boundary, but will quickly dissipate with the setting sun. As the wave over nodak works across northern Minnesota, we could see the southern extent of its precip move across our far northern County Warning Area (central Minnesota into northwest wi), but even that looks like a stretch. The bigger question for tonight is what happens with cloud cover. Some indications we could see stratus develop again, but as mentioned in the aviation section, model agreement on whether or not we actually see anything develop is pretty low, so stuck with the nbm for cloud cover, which basically has a scattered coverage through the night. For Monday, it's a repeat of today, but the boundary will slowly be pivoting southeast across the area Monday into Monday night. The main upper wave will be moving across northern Minnesota into Lake Superior, which is what will drive the north end of the boundary east, but the south end of the boundary down toward Omaha will remain stationary. Slowly slid pop gradient southeast with expected motion of the boundary, but like today, convergence on the boundary looks weak and instability is low, so very sparse coverage at best is expected with any diurnally driven activity. What will be nice is models continue to slowly nudge up temperatures for Monday, with highs expected to get right up in the 75 to 80 range. Long term...(tuesday through sunday) issued at 238 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019 Overall large scale pattern evolution. West to west-northwesterly upper flow at the start of the period looks to evolve into southwest flow by late week as troughing amplifies in western US/Canada. That upper trough then looks to swing through the upper Midwest over the weekend, although its timing and amplitude is highly uncertain at this point. After that most indications are that we'll see heights build across the central and eastern US, which would lead to much warmer and potentially more active weather for our area. Model consistency and preferences. Guidance is in decent agreement through midweek, but differences become more noticeable from the second half of the week into the weekend as the flow amplifies. Given significant spread in the ensemble systems (in addition to marked differences in the deterministic guidance) don't see much reason to stray too far from the nbm/consensus approach. If anything, might shy away from some of the details offered by the GFS given its outlier overly developed upper and surface lows in the northern High Plains Friday. General forecast overview. Precipitation chances on Tuesday look like they should stay south near the I-90 corridor (and southward), with the instability gradient being depressed into that area. The guidance does show some spotty precipitation farther north, but most is light and coming from the various model cp schemes. Dry weather for most of the area should continue into Wednesday before we eventually get into return flow/warm advection and see instability work back into the area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain should work from west to east across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. With significant disagreement in the guidance beyond that point, and with instability lingering over the region while we await the arrival of the western trough, we'll have a long period of chance pops from Friday through Sunday. The best chance for heavier and more widespread precipitation looks to be from Friday night through Saturday. Forecasts concerns and/or targets of opportunity. Primary concerns for any significant weather look to hold off until the tail end of the forecast period when we have more meaningful instability in place along with the arrival of a healthy upper wave moving in from the western US. However, given the significant uncertainty in the guidance there isn't much to justify changing the consensus forecast at this point. In the shorter range, Tuesday provided somewhat of a target of opportunity with respect to precipitation chances, and tightened up the pop gradient (and shifted it slightly south) on Tuesday to line up better with where the baroclinic zone and any associated instability look to be. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) issued at 645 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019 Generally VFR conditions throughout, but could see some MVFR stratus develop late tonight into Monday morning. At this point, the best chance for low ceilings are at krnh and Keau. Clouds shoudl lift and break up tomorrow by late morning. Could see a few scattered showers, but confidence too low to mention in the tafs. Kmsp... Forecast guidance showed low clouds developing again Monday morning, but these should scatter out to VFR by late morning. Winds will start out southeast, but should become more southwesterly and even westerly during the afternoon. /Outlook for kmsp/ Tue...VFR. Wind northwest 5-10 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind southeast 5 kts. Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/-tsra. Wind southeast 5-10 kts. && Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Minnesota...none. &&

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