Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmpx 180523 afdmpx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 1223 am CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Update...for 06z aviation discussion below && Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night) issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Main issue this afternoon is thunderstorms drifting north from Iowa across the state line into Minnesota along the weak frontal boundary. 0-3km MLCAPE and surface vorticity maxima in Iowa does stretch northward into this same area across far southern Minnesota. With the boundary in place, it's certainly possible a funnel cloud or even brief land spout could occur. These storms are otherwise rather weak, with limited height and very little threat for hail. Despite this, the slow eastward movement of these storms could lead to very isolated 1-2" rainfall amounts. These storms should slide east of the area by sunset this evening. Farther north and for most of the forecast area, scattered to broken mid level clouds with a few brief and light showers/sprinkles will continue through the afternoon in association the upper level trough and shortwave just to our north. The front will sag south of Minnesota and western WI tonight, allowing drier air at the surface to filter in from the north. Tuesday will be dry for most of the area, but central Minnesota and northwest WI could see afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms pop up given additional upper level shortwave energy rotating through northern Minnesota. Showers and anticipated cu field tomorrow will dissipate in the evening, leading to a mostly clear night. Long term...(wednesday through monday) issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Low amplitude troughing will remain in place across the Great Lakes and New England for much of late week. Meanwhile, another trough will begin to work southeast into the Pacific northwest later this week as well, which should allow ridging to build into the upper Mississippi Valley by this weekend. Several short waves in the west southwest flow locally will bring numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout much of the long term period, particularly Wednesday night Onward. Severe weather chances are low through much of the period, but a stronger system and ample moisture and near dry adiabatic mid level lapse rates will result in a pool of potentially extreme instability across the Missouri Valley Friday, as highlighted in the day 4-8 outlook by Storm Prediction Center. Right now it appears likely the greatest instability will remain south of the area, but the severe threat will increase if the warm front does work far enough north. The deep western trough will deamplify as it heads over the plains and upper Midwest this weekend. By the middle to latter parts of next week there are indications of a ridge developing across the central and eastern Continental U.S.. this pattern shift would likely bring a decent shot at heat and humidity toward the end of the month. In fact, the European model (ecmwf) eps box and whiskers graph for high temps are warming with each run and the warmer members currently extend up into the mid 90s. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) issued at 1224 am CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 MVFR/stratus deck will threaten northern/eastern sites (kaxn/kstc/keau) overnight. Have included a period of bkn-ovc ceilings circa 2000 feet, and a scattered mention elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered to broken VFR level clouds will prevail on Tuesday, along with light north/northwest winds. Kmsp... at this point the ceiling level looks to remain at or above 3kft. /Outlook for kmsp/ Wed...VFR. Wind east/southeast 5 kts. Thu...VFR with MVFR/-tsra likely late. Wind southeast 5-10 kts. Fri...MVFR or lower with -tsra possible. Winds southeast 5-10 kts. && Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Minnesota...none. && $$

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