Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmpx 231020 afdmpx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 520 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Update... issued at 503 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below. && Short term...(today through wednesday) issued at 349 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Surface analysis early this morning shows the low pressure center responsible for yesterday's rain now over Lake Michigan with its trailing cold front extending southwest across Illinois and Missouri. High pressure takes up much of south-central Canada through the northern and Central Plains. Aloft, a shortwave trough is accompanying the surface low, with west-northwest flow aloft in the wake of the trough. The west-northwest flow aloft, the weaker northern portion of split flow whereas the southern portion is much more active, will maintain itself through tonight then take on a more direct zonal west-east flow Wednesday. This will allow the surface high pressure area to be the dominant feature through midday tomorrow with very little cloud cover to speak of until tomorrow afternoon. An approaching shortwave disturbance aloft and associated weak frontal system will remain to the north through tomorrow afternoon, thus have maintained a dry forecast through the short-term portion of the forecast. Plenty of sunshine today along with a more southwesterly low level flow by this afternoon will result in a strong warming of temperatures from the cool 30s of this morning. Highs will climb into the 60s throughout the weather forecast office mpx coverage area. The warming trend will continue through tomorrow as a warm front will push across northern Minnesota tonight, allowing for lows in the 40s tonight followed by highs reaching the 70s area-wide on Wednesday. Long term...(wednesday night through monday) issued at 349 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 A weak front passes through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with just enough divergence aloft to kick off at least some scattered showers along the front. Forecast soundings show quite a bit of dry air below 700 mb for precipitation to overcome, so expect precipitation amounts to remain fairly light, generally around a tenth of an inch. Will keep pops in the 30% range given the dry air to overcome and likely scattered nature of any showers that develop, Models continue to agree on a more organized system approaching on Saturday, as the jet becomes more active along the US/Canada border. A shortwave along with divergence aloft ahead of an approaching jetstreak will develop a surface low over the Central Plains and track it to our south across Iowa. The GFS has now come into agreement with other models on depicting a colder system with keeping the low to our south. Our string of pleasant weekends looks to come to an end, with Saturday likely featuring a cold and steady rain with temperatures possible struggling to get out of the 40s. Can't totally rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Saturday morning if guidance continues to trend towards the colder European model (ecmwf) solution. Lapse rates look to remain too weak across our area for convection which will help limit the heavy rain potential, but another possible half inch to an inch of steady rainfall will only add to the already saturated soils and swollen rivers in some areas. The active pattern continues into early next week with the strong jet residing overhead, although models begin to diverge on the timing of impulses and associated precipitation chances. Will mention low chances of precipitation Sunday through Tuesday until these details can be more refined. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend through the period, with above normal temperatures ahead of the front on Thursday giving way to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal by the weekend. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) issued at 503 am CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 High pressure moving across the area will produce solid VFR conditions throughout this taf set. Mainly passing few high clouds. Light northerly winds will increase to around 5 kts as they back to west and SW through the day today. Winds in western Minnesota will be a little stronger, closer to 10 kts. Kmsp...no additional concerns. /Outlook for kmsp/ Thu...VFR. Chance -ra early a.M. Wind northwest 10-15 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind northwest 5-10 kts. Sat...mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-ra. Wind NE 10 kts. && Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... WI...none. Minnesota...none. && $$

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