Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus63 kmqt 240524 afdmqt Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Marquette Michigan 124 am EDT Fri may 24 2019 Short term...(this evening through friday) issued at 237 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes and a deep and closed low over The Rockies with a ridge over the sern U.S. This morning. This closed low heads northeast into the northern plains on Fri. The trough over the upper Great Lakes heads into New England by this evening and a shortwave ridge moves through the area tonight into Fri. Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves back into the area Fri afternoon. Diurnally driven showers this afternoon into early evening with the trough aloft will dissipate overnight. Rain then returns in the west in the morning and overspreads the area in the afternoon. Kept in some chances for thunder Fri afternoon late with Max diurnal heating taking place. Did not make many changes to the going forecast overall. Long term...(friday night through thursday) issued at 313 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2019 Ongoing showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected over primarily the central and Eastern Upper Peninsula Friday night. Instability will be limited after what is expected to be a cloudy day Friday, with MUCAPE maximizing around 500 j/kg and generally remaining below 250 j/kg. However, winds aloft will become quite strong, leading to 0-6km bulk shear values above 50 knots. There will also be some support from upper level divergence as the anti- cyclonically curved jet streak maxima moves over The Arrowhead of Minnesota. While T-storm strength would be limited in any development, hazards would still include lightning and brief heavy rainfall as well as the (unlikely) potential for sub-severe wind gusts and small hail. Still some uncertainty in quantitative precipitation forecast Friday night into Saturday morning, with the ec/NAM/gefs mean and some of the high resolution guidance a bit higher than the CMC/GFS deterministic. On the whole, likely expecting 0.1-0.3" east of a line from Munising to the Dickinson/Menominee County line between 00z-12z Sat, although locally higher amounts are likely in any thunderstorms that do develop. Saturday is still on track to be the warmest day of the Spring so far, and we should finally reach 70 degrees here at the office. It will be breezy over the inland central and west during the day, with ample mixing allowing for surface gusts as high as 25-30 mph. The possibility exists for a shower/T-storm over the far east in the afternoon/evening as the front pulls through. NAM is, as usual, overdoing the low level moisture and subsequently producing over 1500 j/kg cape, a solution that can clearly be discounted, however MUCAPE approaching 1000 j/kg does seem plausible. High pressure will then take hold Sunday into Monday morning, with additional shower/tstorm activity moving in sometime Monday afternoon or evening as a shortwave preceding the main trough pulls through the region. Timing is up in the air currently, as the CMC is slower with the precipitation shield on Monday. In general, outdoor activities on the Memorial Day Holiday should still be safe through the morning, and likely through the afternoon over the east half. Model divergence then leads to some questions as we head into the middle of next week. The European model (ecmwf) closes off a low over Ontario/Manitoba that is not depicted as far south in the CMC/GFS. Deterministic GFS also looks to be overdoing height falls at 500 mb. Regardless, additional rounds of precipitation will be possible, with details to be ironed out in the coming days. In general, seasonal temperatures are expected through the rest of the month, but there are some hints at colder than normal temps into early June. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night) issued at 124 am EDT Friday may 24 2019 Low level moisture will linger tonight resulting in low stratus with MVFR or MVFR dropping to IFR at all sites. Expect some improvement Friday morning with conditions lifting to MVFR in the morning and to VFR at kcmx and ksaw in the afternoon. However, rain moving into the region will drop conditions back to MVFR by late in the forecast period. && Marine...(for the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) issued at 237 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2019 The wind will stay at or below 20 knots for this entire forecast period with no gales seen. && MQT watches/warnings/advisories... Upper Michigan... none. Lake Superior... none. Lake Michigan... none. && $$

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