Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus66 kpdt 240315 afdpdt Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pendleton or 815 PM PDT Thu may 23 2019 Short term...a closed low over northern Utah is bringing wrap around showers to far eastern Oregon, including Wallowa and Union counties. Meanwhile, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed along the Washington and northern Oregon Cascades ahead of an approaching shortwave trough from the north. A decaying thunderstorm is currently present between The Dalles and Hood River. Winds are breezy near the Cascades and the eastern Columbia River gorge. After midnight, any showers will be isolated and winds will decrease. The shortwave trough from b.C. Will become a deeper trough as it travels over Washington on Friday. The air mass will be more unstable with a better chance of thunderstorms, although any storms that develop will likely be pulsating weak storms due to the lack of shear and CAPES less than 300 j/kg. In addition, westerly surface winds will increase on Friday with gusts 30-40 mph in some areas. In the eastern Columbia River gorge and north central Oregon, gusts to 45 mph can be expected in some wind-prone areas. Wister && Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM PDT Thu may 23 2019/ Short term...Friday night through Sunday...showers will taper off and mostly end by late evening Friday. Saturday looks to be relatively quiet with just a few mountain showers. It does not look particularly unstable so do not have thunderstorms mentioned at this time. On Sunday precipitation chances will increase in the afternoon over the central and eastern mountains and Highlands with enough instability for a few afternoon thunderstorms. 78 Long term...Sunday night through Thursday. Upper low over California/Nevada Sunday night will continue to push clouds and showers into the forecast area especially the southern portion. By Monday the low is moving well off to the southeast and upper ridge is starting to build offshore with northerly flow over the region. Should have decreasing clouds with just a chance of showers over the mountains. Models not in complete agreement for mid week though overall trend appears to be a ridge building over the area. This will provide partly cloudy skies and warming temperatures. Lower elevations of the Columbia Basin and valleys will see highs getting into the 80s. No significant winds expected through the period. 94 Aviation...00z tafs. Sct-bkn 050-100 this evening and overnight with isolated showers. Winds 10-20kt. Sct-bkn 060-120 Friday with scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Westerly winds increasing to 15-30kt. 94 && Preliminary point temps/pops... PDT 51 69 42 65 / 10 10 10 10 alw 57 73 47 69 / 10 20 20 10 psc 56 76 50 71 / 10 20 20 10 ykm 54 73 46 68 / 10 20 10 20 hri 56 74 46 70 / 10 10 10 10 eln 54 68 46 65 / 20 20 10 30 rdm 43 65 35 59 / 10 10 0 10 lgd 47 65 41 62 / 20 50 30 20 gcd 46 67 39 61 / 20 50 20 20 dls 56 68 48 67 / 10 10 0 10 && PDT watches/warnings/advisories... or...none. Washington...none. &&

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