Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus65 kpub 182108 afdpub Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 308 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Short term...(this evening through friday) issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Currently... GOES water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows a ridge building over the southwest US as a north to south oriented jet streak shifts east into the US plains, its exit region over eastern Colorado. Large scale lift in the exit region along with favorable atmospheric moisture has led to the development of isolated rain showers across the plains this afternoon, now confined to the far eastern counties. With strong flow overhead, winds this afternoon have generally gusted into the 30-40 mph range at the surface across the eastern plains. Temperatures across the plains and high valleys range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Tonight and tomorrow... Gusty winds and isolated rain showers will end early this evening as the upper jet moves east. The ridge will continue to expand east across the southwest US tonight and tomorrow, its axis moving over western Colorado by early tomorrow evening. This will bring dry weather, clear skies, and light winds to the forecast area. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s across the plains this evening, and mid 20s to mid 30s in the high valleys. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s across the plains tomorrow, and near 70 in Colorado Springs and the high valleys. Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels during the afternoon, but light winds will stave off critical fire weather conditions. Long term...(friday night through thursday) issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019 An upper level ridge over the area will keep the weather dry Fri night, through at least midday Sat. High temps on Sat will be well above average, with readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the plains and in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the San Luis and upper Arkansas River valleys. Sat afternoon and Sat night an upper level system is forecast to move along the southern Colorado border. This system is expected to bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Colorado. A front pushes into mainly some of the far eastern areas of southeast Colorado early sun, but is forecast to have a hard time advancing westward thru the day. At this time, the NAM shows breezy east to northeast winds behind the front in the afternoon over El Paso County and the far southeast plains, along with increased low level moistures and probably some low clouds. There is also a weak disturbance that comes off an upper low over southern NV, and track northeastward over Colorado during the day. At this time precip doesn't look widespread sun, which is a change. Both the NAM and GFS show the best chances for precip sun being over the central mountains, and over Teller and El Paso counties. By late afternoon though, precip chances may start increasing over other portions of the plains. Temps on sun will be much cooler over the plains, and just slightly cooler in the high valleys. Sun evening, precip is expected to become widespread across southeast co, as the front pushes all the way through the area and the moisture deepens. At the same time, precip will still be ongoing over the Continental Divide, with the best chances remaining over the central mtns. By Mon morning, an upper low is forecast to be centered somewhere over UT, the location varies between the models. Precip still looks widespread over the southeast plains and eastern mtns, as well as over the central mtns. This will lead to below average temps Mon over the plains and close to average temps in the high valleys. Later Mon, the ec moves the upper low center into AZ, while the GFS moves it to along the central border region between Colorado and Utah. Then Mon night, the ec moves the low center to the southern Arizona border, while the GFS moves and open wave acrs Colorado. Either way, unsettled and generally wet weather is expected across southern co, but with the model differences, accurately forecasting precip amounts will be difficult. With the GFS moving the main upper trof out of the area on Tue, but having some trailing energy over portions of southern Colorado thru the day, it is showing precip over the mtns and a little in the high valleys, but dry over the east after Tue morning. The GFS then has an upper ridge and mainly dry weather over southern Colorado on Wed and Thu. On the other hand, the ec has its upper low moving slowly across nm Tue thru Wed night, and then slowly across the Texas Panhandle on Thu, and shows fairly widespread precip over southern Colorado thru Wed and more spotty precip on Thu. Thus, there is low confidence in the forecast for Tue through Thu. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019 VFR conditions are expected at the three taf sites (kals, kcos, kpub) over the next 24 hours. Winds initially gusting to around 30 knots at the three sites will become light and diurnally driven early this evening through the rest of the taf period. && Pub watches/warnings/advisories... none. &&

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