Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus65 kpub 231059 afdpub Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 459 am MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 454 am MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Currently, latest GOES satellite imagery, recent computer simulations, radar returns and real-time data indicate that generally light precipitation(in the form of snow over higher terrain locations and light rain over lower elevations) continues over primarily southern locations early this morning in combination with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies area-wide. In addition, early morning temperatures generally running above later April early morning climatological averages in combination with low grade winds as evidenced by no County Warning Area Pueblo sites exceeding 30 mph wind gusts during the previous 3 hours. Closed upper low currently located south of Santa Rosa, Arizona early this morning is projected to slowly shift to well south of Douglas, Arizona by midnight in advance of the closed upper low nearing Presidio, Texas by sunrise Wednesday. In addition, a 1025 mb surface high centered over far southwestern Nebraska early this morning is projected to gradually weaken as it moves into the Texas Panhandle tonight, helping to drive a cold front well into The Big Bend region of Texas tonight, while keeping a relatively cool(but not as cool as yesterday) and moist air mass in place over the majority of the County Warning Area. The combination of the previously mentioned meteorological elements as well as another weak upper impulse(per recent pv analysis) impacting the forecast district later today will allow for continued precipitation chances(including isolated thunderstorms) favoring southern and western locations into this evening, with precipitation expected to end County Warning Area-wide around and/or after midnight. The potential exists that an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow will be possible over portions of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 feet this morning, while the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 feet and the Wet Mountains above 10000 feet have the potential of experiencing an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow this morning and will maintain the existing winter weather highlights for these locations until noon MDT today. Elsewhere, Continental Divide locations have the potential of experiencing an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow into this evening, while low-grade to nil quantitative precipitation forecast totals are anticipated elsewhere today and tonight. As touched upon earlier, generally below seasonal maximum temperatures in combination with near to slightly above seasonal minimum temperatures are projected across southern Colorado during the next 24 hours in combination with continued basically low-grade gradient winds. Long term...(wednesday through monday) issued at 454 am MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 An upper ridge noses its way over Colorado on Wed, but a little moisture and instability during the day could lead to a few showers/tstms over the mtns and high valleys in the afternoon and evening. Temps will be warmer Wed, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the southeast plains, and in the 60s in the San Luis and upper Arkansas River valleys. Early Thu, a front moves through eastern co, bringing northerly winds that become more easterly for the afternoon hours. Otherwise, an upper level ridge remains over the area. Once again, the mtn and some of the high valleys areas should see a few showers/tstms in the afternoon and evening hours, and there will be the potential for a few along portions of the I-25 corridor as well. A weak disturbance moves through the upper level flow Thu evening, and the forecast models show the potential for showers to spread east across southeast Colorado into the late night hours as that disturbance moves acrs the area. Zonal flow is expected across the state on Fri, with another disturbance affecting the area, bringing chances for showers/tstms to all of southern Colorado. It looks like westerly winds on Fri could be a bit breezy, and some locations, mostly along the I-25 corridor, could see some low relative humidity values, raising the fire weather concerns. However, with the fuels greening up, the fuels will likely not be critical. Temps look quite warm on Fri, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the southeast plains and in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the high valleys. Zonal flow continues across the state on Sat, and there may be another weak disturbance in the flow aloft. Surface winds across much of the southeast plains, are expected to be easterly in the wake of a front that moves through early in the day. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms will again be possible, mostly over the higher terrain, but if there is a disturbance moving across the area, some of the lower elevations could also see a little precip. Sun, the zonal flow continues and this looks like another day with breezy westerly winds across much of southern co, along with low relative humidity values, increasing the potential for fire weather concerns. Temps will again be very warm, with highs mostly in the 80s over the southeast plains, and in the upper 60s and lower 70s in the high valleys. Sun night, a front moves through eastern co, while an upper low moves over Southern California. During the day Mon, that upper low is forecast to move over Arizona. By Mon afternoon, breezy easterly winds are forecast over eastern Colorado. The GFS does not show much in the way of precip over the area on Mon, other than some light precip over the central mtns and the far southeast plains. On the other hand, the ec shows good chances for precip from about the I-25 corridor and westward. The blend of models for Mon just has some spotty, isolated to scattered precip. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) issued at 454 am MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Moist upslope flow will gradually loosen its grip on southern Colorado during the next 24 hours with primary accumulating precipitation expected to remain west to south of the kals, kcos and kpub terminals. Expect that the MVFR to IFR conditions at times early this morning will give way to VFR conditions and generally light winds by late this morning, with VFR conditions then continuing into tonight at the kals, kcos and kpub taf sites. && Pub watches/warnings/advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for coz073-080. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for coz075. && $$

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