Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus65 kpub 180534 afdpub Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 1134 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Update... issued at 801 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Thunderstorm activity has pushed east towards the Kansas border as of 8 PM, with just some lingering light showers back along the eastern mts. Incorporated latest obs data along with radar and satellite trends. Moore && Short term...(this evening through tuesday) issued at 342 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Latest trends in the streamflows across the Southwest Mountains and the San Luis valley indicate that water is still running high, so the Flood Watch is being extended until Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue spreading from the mountains to the adjacent valleys and plains through the evening hours. There remains the potential for some storms to reach severe criteria this evening across the plains as cape values should be in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range. However, bulk shear values are not projected to be very high, generally less than 30 kts. With these values, the main threats will be wind gusts of 60 mph and hail up to Golf Ball size. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal risk for the areas east of the Sangre de Cristos with a slight risk for the northeast corner of El Paso County and another area covering eastern Las Animas, western Baca, and southern bent counties. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, bringing the potential for flash flooding, especially over the Spring, Hayden Pass, and junkins burn scars. Storms are expected to move out of the area overnight, and lows tonight will be in the mid 50s across the plains, and mid to upper 40s in the San Luis and upper Arkansas valleys. Another wave of energy moves through the area on Tuesday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms for the late morning and afternoon. Storms should initiate over the mountains again, then spread eastward across the adjacent valleys and plains. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms from the I-25 corridor eastward with a slight risk for the far southeastern portion of Colorado. Cape values are forecast to be around 1000-1500 j/kg over the far eastern plains, and bulk shear values are expected to be a bit higher (around 40 kts) over the far southeastern corner of Colorado, which could support the development of an isolated supercell. Once again, the main threats are expected to be hail of around an inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s across the plains, and upper 60s to mid 70s in the high valleys. Long term...(tuesday night through monday) issued at 342 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Active meteorological conditions are expected to continue over eastern locations of the cwa(including the potential for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms) into Tuesday night as latest pv analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings support next upper disturbance impacting the area. Warmer and drier conditions are still expected over southern Colorado from Wednesday into Friday as zonal to southwesterly upper flow develops over the region. Then, cooler and increasingly unsettled meteorological conditions are anticipated from later into the weekend and into early next week as several relatively weak northerly surface surges interact with passing upper disturbances. Finally, warmest temperatures are projected from Wednesday into Friday, while coolest conditions should be noted during the weekend. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) issued at 1129 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 VFR conditions across the region overnight, as rain diminishes over the far eastern plains from west to east. Convection is forecast to develop once again over the higher terrain by 18z tomorrow, and all three taf sites have thunderstorms in the vicinity mentioned starting at 18z-19z. The threat of thunderstorms will remain through 03z, then showers will linger into the late night hours. In general, VFR conditions are expected, but any thunderstorms that cross directly over one of the three main taf sites of kcos, kpub or kals will drop visibilities quickly into IFR conditions. Moore && Pub watches/warnings/advisories... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for coz065>068-070-071. &&

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