Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 krah 200002 afdrah Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 800 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Synopsis... a cold front will cross central NC tonight. A mid and upper level low will linger over the central Appalachians and Middle Atlantic States through the weekend. Surface high pressure will push in from the southwest on Monday. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 215 PM Friday... ..significant severe weather event likely through this evening... The second round of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the western edge of central NC as of 2 PM. As per the Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis Page, cape is in the 500-1000 j/kg range, with bulk shear values of 55-65 kts. 0-3 km srh is roughly 200-250 m^2/s^2. Lapse rates aren't terribly impressive. Pwat's are roughly 1.0-1.5" from west to east across the area. Srh is expected to increase over the next few hours. The cape has decreased in response to the earlier convection, however some recovery is possible ahead of the line, especially if the sun breaks out at all. Based on current radar and the above parameters, there could be three successive rounds of convection move through the area between 2 PM and 12 am. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and possibly some hail are all possible with the storms. Also, given the available moisture there is also the possibility for flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Emergency action plans should already be in place. Know where your safe place is! If a warning is issued for your location take shelter! Also, have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings. Please check on your nearby family members and neighbors to ensure they are also prepared. Tonight...the strong/severe storms should be exiting the area around or shortly after midnight as the cold front pushes through central NC. Some additional showers are possible as the upper low swings through the region, primarily across the far northwestern portions of the area. Lows will depend on fropa timing and lingering clouds, however for now expect lows around 50 degrees northwest to around 60 degrees east. Wind gusts should taper off behind the front, however sustained winds around 15 kts will likely continue through the overnight hours. && Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 440 PM Friday... A mature deep upper level low over eastern Kentucky will migrate slowly east into WV Saturday night. While central NC will initially be in the dry slow associated with the mature low, strong cyclonic flow interacting with available low level moisture will result in a broken/overcast stratocu field by late morning, persisting well into the afternoon. With heating, expect scattered showers to develop with the greatest concentration over the northwest Piedmont, and less so over the sandhills and southern coastal plain. While the bilk of the showers will dissipate with loss of heating, continued cyclonic flow will maintain a small threat for a shower across the northern counties into Saturday night. Due to the presence of the deep low, it will remain breezy across central NC Saturday. Anticipate gusts 25 to 35 mph with the strongest expected across the sandhills and coastal plain where partial sun will aid to mix the stronger winds to the surface. The upper level low will drift east Sunday from WV into VA, maintaining a cyclonic flow, though weaker, over central NC. Still expect a few showers across the NE Piedmont, mainly during the afternoon hours, though quickly dissipating with loss of heating. Presence of the upper level low in our vicinity and its associated cool pool of air will result in cooler than normal temperatures through Sunday. Highs Saturday should vary from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s se, and the 60s Sunday. && Long term /Monday through Friday/... as of 540 PM Friday... The upper level low lifts away from the mid Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, resulting in rising mid/upper level heights and a milder air mass regime. A S/W in the northern stream will drag a weak sfc cold front into central NC on Wednesday. Expect an increase in cloudiness along with a small threat for a shower though convergence appears weak and overall moisture depth marginal at best. Tranquil weather expected Thu while the deep upper level low over the arklatex migrates into the deep south Friday. Associated upper divergence, strong onshore moisture fetch, and a weak sfc front dropping southward from Virginia will increase the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures through the work week will average near to above normal. && Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... as of 800 PM Friday... Variable aviation parameters expected across central NC through Saturday as a deep low pressure system lifts slowly east from eastern Kentucky to WV. Ceilings will vary from MVFR to low end VFR through 06z Saturday, then should trend to more VFR as drier air overspreads the region from the SW. Residual moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere coupled with instability attributed to low level lapse rates, and heating will trigger scattered showers, primarily in vicinity of kint, kgso, and krdu Saturday afternoon. The bulk of these showers will dissipate with loss of heating, though variably cloudy skies will continue into Saturday night, mainly north of Highway 64. VFR conditions should occur Monday through Tuesday. A weak cold front will drop into central NC Wednesday, possibly accompanied by a few showers and areas of MVFR/low end VFR ceilings. && Rah watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Synopsis...kcp

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