Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus61 krnk 222309 afdrnk Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 709 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Synopsis... high pressure will cover the southern Appalachians tonight and Tuesday. On Wednesday a cold front will move from the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic region. Low pressure will track along this front through the Southern Plains and southeast United States Thursday and Friday. && Near term /through Tuesday/... as of 700 PM EDT Sunday... Do not see any changes needed for the previous forecast as mainly clear skies expected through tonight. Previous discussion from early this afternoon... Some higher 500mb heights and weak ridging over southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia on Tuesday. High pressure will cover the central and southern Appalachians tonight. The combination of light wind and a clear sky will lead to a sharp drop in temperatures this evening. Will stay just below met/mav guidance in the valleys for low temperatures tonight. A cold front will extend from New York to the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Showers and expected along this front and the associated high clouds may spread into the mid Atlantic region on Tuesday. Do not think this will have a large influence on maximum temperatures. Downslope compression from the westerly component of the winds will counteract any reduction in heating from the cloud cover. 850mb temperatures continue to rise tonight and Tuesday and will be around +14 during the day. Will stay close to met/mav guidance for maximum temperatures. && Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/... as of 325 PM EDT Monday... A weak frontal system will enter the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region from the northwest Tuesday night and gradually wash out as it settles across the region on Wednesday. This will bring breezy conditions and some scattered showers to the forecast through Wednesday. However, phasing upper level energy will reinvigorate the front as it pushes back northward as a warm front on Thursday with better coverage of showers and a chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period with highs east of the Blue Ridge in the upper 70s to lower 80s, Lower/Middle 70s to the west. Lows will generally be in the 50s. && Long term /Friday through Monday/... as of 325 PM EDT Monday... The phasing upper level energy will drive development of low pressure into New England that will pull a trailing cold front through the area on Friday with breezy conditions and a good chance of showers/possibly a thunderstorm to close out the workweek. High pressure will build in with fair weather for Saturday, but the progressive upper level flow will have another front entering the region on Sunday with another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be at to slightly above seasonal norms through the weekend. && Aviation /23z Monday through Saturday/... as of 700 PM EDT Monday... VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through Tuesday. West-southwest winds are expected to increase at times after 17z Tuesday, especially roa/blf, so some gusts to 20kts possible. Confidence is above average for all forecast elements. Extended aviation discussion... There is a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday, with potential sub-VFR ahead/along a weak cold front dropping south through the region. A low will track along this front on Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms and associated MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Saturday will be dry and conditions improving back to VFR behind that system. && Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... Virginia...none. NC...none. WV...none. && $$ Synopsis...air mass

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