Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 kshv 221844 afdshv Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Shreveport la 1244 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 Aviation... For the 22/18z taf period, IFR/LIFR cigs will continue to plague all sites through much of the period as a warm front to our south will begin lifting back northward later this afternoon into this evening. Convection will continue to affect most terminals this afternoon with mostly light to moderate showers and some embedded thunderstorms possible. A brief break in the convection will come during the evening and part of the overnight hours as winds veer SW with the passage of the northward advancing warm front and in advance of a strong cold front shifting east across Texas. The cold front will quickly sweep across the region from late morning through the afternoon on Saturday with strong SW winds between 15-20 kts and higher gusts approaching 25-30 kts, veering more west after fropa. Cigs will begin to improve across our western sites late in the period as the front shifts east with MVFR conditions likely persisting through the end of the period. /19/ && Previous discussion... /issued 1109 am CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ Update... Active convection remains ongoing late this morning across much of northwest and north central Louisiana, south Arkansas, and parts of East Texas. Pockets of mostly moderate to occasionally heavy showers with some embedded thunderstorms continue to affect these areas while fog has developed farther south where convection has ended. This convection is occurring well north of a stalled/warm frontal boundary which is expected to lift back northward later today into tonight. Looking at water vapor imagery, an upper level impulse is noted across our region which is helping to enhance convection as it shifts NE. Thus far, rainfall amounts have not been excessive so no flooding concerns are noted at the moment. This threat will continue to be monitored, especially in areas where a few inches of rainfall have already occurred over the past 48 hours. The primary forecast update for the remainder of today was to include fog across much of the region, especially south of I-20 closer to the warm front. Rain chances were also increased to account for the more active areas of convection with likely to categorical pops areawide. Aside from these changes, no additional forecast updates are needed at this time. Updated text products have already been sent. /19/ && Preliminary point temps/pops... shv 58 56 70 40 / 90 60 80 0 mlu 62 62 74 44 / 70 60 80 10 deq 53 48 68 35 / 70 60 90 0 txk 53 51 69 37 / 90 60 90 0 eld 55 54 71 39 / 100 60 80 0 tyr 56 54 67 39 / 80 60 90 0 ggg 57 55 69 39 / 80 60 90 0 lfk 62 61 71 41 / 80 60 90 0 && Shv watches/warnings/advisories... Arkansas...none. La...none. OK...none. Texas...none.

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