Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 ksjt 230452 afdsjt Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 Aviation... /06z tafs/ Expect challenging flight weather to continue to develop tonight. As a Pacific front approaches, from the west, stratus will continue to produce MVFR to IFR ceilings. The front will push across west central Texas rapidly and bring VFR conditions, along with gusty winds, from the west. Also, blowing dust remains a possibility tomorrow afternoon, for mainly the Abilene and San Angelo terminals. && Previous discussion... /issued 540 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ Aviation... /00z tafs/ Look for challenging flight weather to develop later this evening. Although most terminals are currently VFR, the Abilene terminal remains MVFR, with lingering low clouds. Stratus will return this evening, with MVFR ceilings at all terminals. Then, an upper storm system will push across west central Texas and produce showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Then, expect strong winds tomorrow, from the west, as another cold front pushes across Texas. Also, the Abilene and San Angelo terminals may have reduced visibilities, with blowing dust, tomorrow afternoon. Previous discussion... /issued 253 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ Short term... (tonight and saturday) Low clouds have slowly cleared generally west to east today with sunny skies southwest of a Robert Lee to Mason line as of 2 PM, and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies northeast of that line. Expect some clearing to continue into the early evening hours before low clouds fill back in after 6 PM tonight. The main upper level low is still centered over northern Arizona this afternoon, but will pivot and begin to speed up as it moves east through northern nm, then northeast across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas. A Pacific cold front will sweep quickly through the area tonight. There is still a chance we could see scattered showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms along this boundary as it moves through, so have kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms in through the overnight hours. Late tonight into Saturday, as the upper level low move across nm and into KS, a surface low will deepen as it moves from southeastern Colorado east along the Kansas/OK border. This will intensify the surface pressure gradient here, increasing our westerly winds late tonight into the 20 to 30 mph range. Then, Saturday morning, as mixing occurs, winds will strengthen even more as 850mb winds range from 45 to 60 knots over the northern 2/3 of the forecast area. Although not all of these winds should make it to the surface, winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph are expected for areas north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. We aren't expecting widespread sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or gusts to 60 mph that would be needed for a High Wind Warning, but northwestern counties like Haskell, Jones, and Fisher will be near these conditions and may be upgraded by future shifts. In addition, the strong winds, and low relative humidity values will result in critical fire weather conditions, and a Fire Weather Watch will also be issued for the afternoon hours. 20 Long term... (sunday through friday) Winds will subside Saturday night and become northerly as surface high pressure and builds into the Texas Panhandle. A weak frontal boundary will drop southward into the County Warning Area resulting in lows Sunday morning near or below freezing. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 50s in the Big Country to the mid 60s across the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Otherwise, a benign weather pattern will set up for the first half of next week with zonal flow aloft prevailing across the region. Highs from Monday through Wednesday will climb into the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s. A cold front is forecast to sag southward into the County Warning Area on Thursday. The GFS stalls the front across the northern half of the County Warning Area with little in the way of precipitation. The ECMWF, however, is much cooler and generates some light quantitative precipitation forecast. For now, will just advertise a slight chance of pops for Thursday with slightly cooler daytime highs. 42 Fire weather... winds of 25 to 40 mph, along with gusts over 50 mph, combined with relative humidity values of 15 to 20 percent are expected by early afternoon Saturday. Although temperatures will only warm into the 60s, the winds and relative humidity values will be enough to likely result in critical fire weather conditions across areas generally west of a Haskell, to Menard, to Sonora line. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas for Saturday afternoon. Conditions will steadily improve from Sunday through the middle of next week. 20 && Preliminary point temps/pops... Abilene 45 63 33 60 / 40 0 0 0 San Angelo 43 64 32 64 / 30 0 0 0 Junction 46 66 31 65 / 30 0 0 0 Brownwood 46 64 32 61 / 50 10 0 0 Sweetwater 43 62 34 60 / 40 0 0 0 Ozona 42 63 31 64 / 30 0 0 0 && Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... Wind Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Saturday for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for Coke-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-

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