Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus64 ksjt 241755 afdsjt Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Aviation... /18z tafs/ Look for challenging flight weather to continue, at least through this evening. As an upper disturbance moves across Texas this evening, VFR conditions will develop. Models are mixed regarding the timing of this improvement; nonetheless, plan for VFR conditions to dominate most of west central Texas by 06z tonight. && Previous discussion... /issued 628 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/ Aviation... /12z tafs/ Showers and scattered thunderstorms encompass much of the southern two-thirds of west central Texas early this morning. Additional periods of showers and storms will continue today, with the approach of an upper level low from northern Mexico. Rain will be heavy at times with this convective activity, reducing visibilities. Considerable variation in cloud ceilings is also expected today. East-southeast winds will shift to north and northeast, with passage of a cold front. An overall improvement to VFR conditions is expected by tonight, as showers and thunderstorms move out of our area and cloud ceilings increase. Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/ Short term... (today and tonight) A Flash Flood Watch continues in effect for most of west central Texas until 10 PM tonight. An outflow boundary has pushed south of the I-10, and will move south of our area prior to daybreak. Radar shows a large area of showers and thunderstorms across our area south of the I-20 corridor, with the heaviest rain occurring in our southern counties behind the front. The upper low, currently over northern Mexico along the border of Sonora/Chihuahua provinces, will move east-northeast into our forecast area this evening. A cold front is pushing south through our area and the approaching low will aid in large-scale ascent. With this setup, additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected across our area today. Rain is expected to be heavy at times, especially across our central and southern counties. Temperatures will be limited to the 60s for highs today across all except perhaps the far southern part of our area. Rain chances will be ending from the west tonight, as the upper low moves out of our area and into northeast Texas overnight. We have lingering pops for our eastern counties through the night, where a wrap around band of moisture and showers will be possible. Long term... (thursday through tuesday) A nice day is shaping up for Thursday with clearing skies and warmer temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The weekend will start with very warm temperatures on Saturday, when highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to around 90. A weak cold front is progged to move south across the northern half of our area Saturday night before stalling. This will result in temperatures a little cooler for the northern part of our area on Sunday. Increased south winds are progged for Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures above normal for our area. We have low pops for much of the northern half of our area Tuesday, for the possibility of thunderstorms along a dryline. Low pops are expanded for Tuesday night, when a cold front is progged to move south into a moist and unstable airmass over area. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Abilene 52 80 53 77 / 30 5 0 0 San Angelo 52 83 52 80 / 30 5 0 0 Junction 54 83 53 81 / 40 5 0 0 Brownwood 54 78 52 76 / 50 10 0 0 Sweetwater 54 80 53 77 / 20 5 0 0 Ozona 51 82 51 80 / 30 0 0 0 && Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Brown- Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-

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