Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus65 kslc 222129 afdslc Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 329 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Synopsis... a low pressure system over southwest Utah will drift south into Arizona this evening. High pressure aloft will build in behind the exiting low pressure beginning tonight. This high pressure will remain across the Great Basin through the middle of the week. && Short term (through 00z friday)... with diurnal heating contrasting the cold pool aloft, modest instability has developed across the region. The combination of terrain circulations, and a deformation axis which stretches northeast from the closed low near Las Vegas, have triggered convection over The Spine of the mountains. This convection will track southwest through the early evening hours. Valley locations such as the central valleys and I-15 corridor from Provo to Cedar City, have the highest chances of seeing a shower. Most high elevation snowfall will be spotty, with snow levels near 9kft. Rising heights, warming aloft, loss of diurnal heating and anticyclonic curvature will support the dissipation of showers through the evening hours. A ridge builds in mid-week, providing a warming trend. Enough instability may be in place to support isolated convection across the southern mountains tomorrow afternoon. Wednesday a shortwave passes well to our north across the northern rockies, but drags in Pacific moisture. This may lead to convection near the Idaho border Wednesday afternoon, expanding to The Spine of Utah's mountains for Thursday. Long term (after 00z friday)... it looks like the latest guidance has continued to come into more agreement with one another, which is encouraging. As the previous shift mentioned, the extended range forecast models are bringing the northern branch trough farther south through the weekend. This will push a baroclinic zone a bit farther south into northern Utah, however it still looks fairly weak. Increased instability and moisture, along with a few shortwave fronts (albeit weak) should continue to provide enough potential for afternoon convection sticking mainly across northern Utah through the weekend. With the northern branch trough dipping south Monday, a low off the California coast begins to move inland, which should pull in some moisture into southern Utah. Models right now do not show much in the way of moisture, nothing substantial as the low becomes absorbed in the mean flow, but can't rule it out. As we continue to get farther into Spring, potential for convection and daily showers and thunderstorms will become more of the norm. Temperatures are forecast to be near or just above normal through the extended period. && Aviation... showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should remain to the south and east of the slc terminal, but may impact S/east approach gates through about 02z. Ceilings at the slc terminal should remain predominantly well above 7kft agl, but could briefly drop below at times this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds generally under 10 kts. && Slc watches/warnings/advisories... Utah...none. Wyoming...none. && $$ Short term...10 long term...Dewey aviation...Van Cleave For more information from noaa's National Weather Service visit...

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