Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 ktbw 200018 afdtbw Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 718 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 Update... after some record high temperatures today, not expecting temps to cool down too much tonight. Even at this hour, temps still lingering around 80 degrees for much of the area. For the overnight, expecting lows in the mid to upper 60s from the Bay area south with a few lower 60s possible across the Nature Coast. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight but it appears that the fog threat over land is not quite as high tonight compared to previous nights. Current forecast remains on track with no updates planned. && Aviation... VFR to prevail for the remainder of the evening and into the early morning hours Wednesday before another round of br/fog under broken low deck between 07-17z. Believe ceilings will be main factor and have them in low MVFR range for now. Southeast to S winds back and slacken some over night before continuing out of the south tomorrow afternoon potentially gusty at times during the afternoon. && Marine... satellite imagery shows a possible area of sea fog well off the coast however the potential exists for some to drift back into the coastal waters tonight...including parts of Tampa Bay through early Wed. A warm front exits the area as high pressure begins to builds in and reduces the fog threat. The high pressure dominates into the weekend with a relaxed gradient keeping winds 15 knots or less. && Preliminary point temps/pops... tpa 82 69 83 69 / 20 10 20 10 fmy 85 68 86 68 / 0 0 20 0 gif 84 67 86 67 / 20 10 30 10 srq 81 67 81 67 / 10 0 10 10 bkv 83 65 85 66 / 30 20 20 20 spg 80 69 82 69 / 10 10 10 10 && Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... Florida...none. Gulf waters...none. &&

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