Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 ktbw 201829 afdtbw Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 229 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Discussion... the upper ridge and reflective surface high pressure continue to extend westward over southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This will keep a southwest flow over the region through early Friday. At that time, the upper ridge and surface high begins to lift north with a surface high center parking over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning. This will allow for decreasing winds on Friday and into the weekend. Drier air moves in with high pressure allowing for precipitable water values to drop from 1.71 inches that we saw on this mornings sounding down to around 1.2 - 1.5 inches through the weekend. Minimal rain chances can be expected starting today and continuing through Sunday. With decreasing clouds and rain chances, temperatures will be on the rise with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 90s each day with some upper 90s possible over the interior. The ridge slips north of the area by Monday and Tuesday allowing for an increase in moisture with precipitable water values creeping back up to 1.5 - 2.0 inches. With increasing moisture, rain/storm chances will be on the rise as well with daily sea breezes. With the East Coast sea breeze being dominant, the highest coverage of rain will be over the East Coast and interior counties during the afternoon hours beginning Monday and continuing through next week. && Aviation... VFR conditions expected through the period with no chance of any significant weather at any of the terminals. Winds will remain out of the southwest between 6-12 knots through the day, then decreasing to 4-8 knots overnight. No other aviation impacts expected. && Marine... high pressure ridging south of Florida will keep a southwest wind flow around 10-15 knots over the coastal waters through the end of the week. High pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf by late Friday with decreasing winds and seas as well as minimal rain/storm chances for the weekend through the middle of next week. No other marine impacts expected. && Fire weather... high pressure south of Florida ridges west producing a southwest wind flow and minimal rain chances across the Florida Peninsula for the next few days. No fire weather hazards expected for the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. && Preliminary point temps/pops... tpa 80 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 10 fmy 77 95 77 94 / 0 0 0 20 gif 77 95 76 94 / 10 0 0 20 srq 79 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 10 bkv 75 92 73 93 / 10 10 0 10 spg 81 91 80 92 / 0 0 0 10 && Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... Florida...none. Gulf waters...none. &&

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