Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 fxus62 ktbw 231842 afdtbw Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 242 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Discussion (tonight - next tuesday)... high pressure surface and aloft will maintain pleasant dry weather across the forecast area through tonight through Thursday with mainly clear nights and mostly sunny days along with warming temperatures. On Friday an upper level trough and attendant surface low will be moving east across the northern Gulf Coast. A trailing cold front from this storm system initially across the eastern Gulf waters Friday morning will move southeast across west central and southwest Florida during Friday afternoon and evening bringing with it a line of scattered showers and storms along and ahead of it. Sufficient moisture ahead of the front along with increasing wind fields and deep layer shear maybe supportive of a few strong storms with strong gusty winds and hail. In the wake of the front high pressure will build in during the upcoming weekend, but residual moisture combined with daytime heating will support some scattered showers and a few storms during the afternoon and early evening hours. During early next week high pressure will remain in control with perhaps a few additional isolated showers each afternoon, otherwise mainly pleasant dry weather is expected. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels on Friday with increased cloud cover and rain chances associated with the front, otherwise temperatures will run above normal with overnight lows initially around 60 tonight moderating into the mid and upper 60s through the remainder of the period with daytime highs in the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland. && Aviation... VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours with just some afternoon cu and high level cirrus expected. An onshore sea breeze component at the coastal terminals this afternoon will become light and variable after 02z tonight. East- southeast winds at 4 to 6 knots early Wednesday morning will again become onshore at the coastal sites after 18z as the sea breeze redevelops. && Marine... high pressure will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters tonight through Thursday with light winds, slight seas, and an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. A storm system moving through the deep south will push a cold front toward and into the coastal waters during Friday and Friday night with south to southwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range ahead of the front along with a line of scattered showers and storms, followed by a wind shift into the northwest and north in the wake of the front Friday night becoming north to northeast on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north. A reinforcing stronger surface high builds in over the mid Atlantic coast early next week with an elevated easterly wind flow developing across the waters. && Fire weather... the very dry air mass across the region will continue to slowly moisten through the remainder of the week with humidity values remaining above critical levels with no red flag conditions expected. && Preliminary point temps/pops... tpa 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 fmy 63 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 gif 59 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 srq 63 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 bkv 57 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 spg 66 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 && Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... Florida...none. Gulf waters...none. &&

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