axnt20 knhc 260517

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...Special features...

Caribbean Sea gale warning: a strengthening Bermuda high will
induce nocturnal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia
beginning this evening and ending by sunrise Thursday. Gale force
winds will return to the area Thursday night and end by sunrise
Friday. Seas will build to 9-13 ft in the south-central Caribbean
off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc or website
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for more details.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is along 36w from 02n-14n, moving W around 15 kt.
A tpw maximum is noted just behind the wave's axis. Model
guidance also supports this position. Scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms are noted from 04n-08n between 30w-40w.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 18n45w to 06n49w, moving W at
10-15 kt. This position is supported by model guidance. Dry
Saharan air surrounds the wave limiting convection at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74w from 09n-21n,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
over Hispaniola and adjacent waters.

The tropical wave that was along 83w at 25/1800 UTC has moved
inland over Central America. Scattered showers and tstorms are
seen over NE Nicaragua, E Honduras and the western Caribbean
within 90 nm of the coast of northern Nicaragua.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11n15w
to 08n20w to 06n31w. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near
06n38w and continues to the coast of South America near 04n51w.
Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave,
scattered showers are noted within 75 nm N and 180 nm S of the
ITCZ between 40w-48w.

Gulf of Mexico...

Weak surface and low-mid level ridging is over the north-central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level southerlies over the
western Gulf continue to draw moist tropical air northward. In
addition, a surface trough is analyzed over the W Gulf from 29n93w
to 22n96w. Broken to overcast clouds along with isolated showers
cover much of the western Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, isolated
showers and tstorms extend from the central Florida Peninsula to
the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas to western Cuba, and this
includes the far southeastern Gulf. The latest ascat pass shows
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Gulf, to the north and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A broad trough in the western Gulf will dissipate early this
morning. Another trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon before pushing westward into the SW Gulf each evening,
with fresh to strong winds associated with it each night through
Thu night. Otherwise, a broad ridge will dominate the remainder of
the basin supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sun night.

Caribbean Sea...

Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves
mentioned in the section above, scattered showers and tstorms are
seen near the South Coast of Cuba, with isolated activity
stretching from the western tip of Jamaica to the Yucatan Channel.
Gentle easterly trades are noted across the northwest Caribbean,
and moderate to fresh east winds prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea. The most recent ascat pass shows some
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and off the N coast of

A weak pres gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres over
northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the Caribbean, with strong breezes N of
Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The
Bermuda high will strengthen today, increasing winds across the
central and SW basin through the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale
force NW of the coast of Colombia at night each night except Fri
night, beginning tonight.

Atlantic Ocean...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Isolated showers and tstorms are seen overnight off the coast of
NE Florida and over the NW Bahamas. A weak surface trough NE of
the Bahamas contains no precipitation or significant cloud cover
at this time. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31n50w to
29n57w. Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 26n between
48w-53w. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32n10w to
25n17w. No significant convection accompanies the front.

The trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu,
likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pres gradient on the SW side
of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle
winds in the area through today. The Bermuda high will strengthen
tonight through Sun night and tradewinds will increase to moderate
E of the Bahamas.

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