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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 am EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65w from 05n-21n,
moving west at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery shows
moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is noted inland mainly south of 12n,
affecting NE Venezuela.

A Central America/epac tropical wave extends its axis along 89w
and south of 17n, moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with
a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the wave axis to include the Gulf of Honduras.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10n14w
to 08n18w. The ITCZ extends from 08n18w to 07n34w to 07n45w to the
coast of South America near 06n53w. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 03n-12n between 20w-28w. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also from 13n-19n between 40w-50w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A stationary front extends from S Florida near 25n80w to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 26n90w to 26n90w to a 1015 mb low over
the NW Gulf near 26n96w. Scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm of the low. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of
the fronts. Fresh to strong northerly winds are depicted in
scatterometer data over the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of
the low and front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
remainder of the basin.

Expect the low to slowly move northeastward through Mon night,
then east northeastward across the N central waters through Thu
night and the NE Gulf by Fri, dragging a new cold front across the
SW Gulf. The tight gradient will gradually slackens allowing for
the fresh to strong winds to slightly diminish Mon through early
Tue. These winds are expected to increase again late Tue or Wed as
another low pressure forms over the NW Gulf and tracks
northeastward toward northern Florida.

Caribbean Sea...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See the section above for

The east Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10n from
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75w. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along this trough. Farther east, total
precipitable water imagery shows high moisture content over
eastern Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean where another
tropical wave prevails. With these, scattered moderate convection
is south of 12n mainly affecting Venezuela.

Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse late tonight in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. By early Tue
afternoon, these winds diminish to fresh speeds. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then
diminish to the gentle intensity through Thu night. The tropical
wave over the far eastern Caribbean will slowly move across the
eastern Caribbean through Wed as it weakens. East to southeast
gentle to moderate winds will follow the wave.

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32n60w to the eastern
coast of South Florida near 25n80w. Scattered showers are within
75 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27n and W of 70w,
supporting the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 19n52w. Upper level diffluence E of the low
center is enhancing convection E of the center. Surface ridge
prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather.

The front will become stationary through the middle of next week.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the
front over the west Atlantic through tonight as strong high
pressure slides eastward off the U.S. East Coast. The high
pressure and front will weaken by mid-week, allowing for winds to
diminish and seas to subside. The gradient is forecast to tighten
beginning on Thu east of NE Florida between high pressure to the N
across the eastern Seaboard and low pressure that tracks
northeastward from the Gulf of the Mexico to across northern

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