axnt20 knhc 212339

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone coast
near 07n12w to 01.5n21w. The ITCZ continues from 01.5n21w to the
coast of Brazil near 06s35w. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02n to 05n between 15w and 22w.

Gulf of Mexico...

Surface high pressure continues to build across the Gulf, with
high pressure of 1024 mb centered over the Texas coastline. A
surface trough is along the Mexican coastline in the southwest
Gulf of Mexico from 22n97w to 19n95w. Scattered showers are noted
on satellite adjacent to this trough. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail throughout the basin, with seas
generally in the 3-5 ft range.

High pressure will dominate the Gulf region over the next several
days producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind
flow. One exception will be a freshening of winds off the West
Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and overnight
hours in response to a thermal trough which develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening hours,
and propagates westward into the SW Gulf during the overnight

Caribbean Sea...

A cold front extends from east Cuba near 21n78w southwestward
to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Scattered moderate showers
are noted on satellite along the front. Scattered moderate
showers are also noted moving across the Lesser Antilles into the
far eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are
noted west of the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted just off
the coast of Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades prevailing
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range off the coast of
Colombia, and 2-4 ft across the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

The cold front will propagate se, reaching from the Windward
Passage to near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica Fri before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds are expected to prevail within
90 nm off the coast of Colombia through Friday night through the
next several days, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing
elsewhere across the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean...

The cold front in the extends southwest from a 1008 mb low near
31n65w to another 1013 mb low off the north- central coast of
Cuba near 23n77w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers
are noted along the front. A reinforcing cold front extends from
31n74w across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba. Scattered moderate
isolated strong showers are noted along to front S of 31n to the
NW Bahamas. High pressure prevails across the rest of the basin
discussion area. Fresh to near gale force winds prevail N of 28n
within 180 nm E of the front. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
over the deep tropics, while gentle to moderate winds prevail
over much of the remainder of the discussion area. NW swell
propagating across the SW N Atlc is helping for seas in the 8-11
ft range over the open waters west of the easternmost cold front.
West of the Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Seas in the 4-6
ft range prevails across the remainder of the discussion area.

The eastern cold front will stall tonight, while the reinforcing
front continues to shift eastward. The fronts will merge on
Friday, with the merged front extending from near 31n62w to the
Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba by Friday night. Swell
generated by these fronts will continue to dominate the waters
east of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend.

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