axpz20 knhc 150925

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 UTC Mon Oct 15 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...Special features...

The center of newly named Tropical Storm Tara is located near
17.5n 104.2w at 15/0900 UTC or 90 nm S of Manzanillo Mexico
nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the NW
quadrant within 120 nm. Tara is nearly stationary, and little
overall motion is expected during the next day or so. A slow
westward motion is forecast to begin after mid-week. On the
forecast track, the center of Tara is forecast to remain near or
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers miatcpep2/wtpz32 knhc for more details.

Gulf of california: a Gale Warning is in effect for the northern
Gulf of California today from 15z until 00z Tue. Strong to near
gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27n in response to
robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United
States. Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected N of 30n,
with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. These marine conditions will
persist through Tue, but mainly N of 29n.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from 16n77w to a 1009 mb low pressure
centered over the SW Caribbean near 14n81w then across Central
America and se Mexico to near 17n96w to 17n102w, then resumes SW
of Tropical Storm Tara at 14n107w to 12n112w to 12n130w to
beyond 10n140w. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
is seen within 45 nm either side of a line from 10n83w to
15n94w. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is taking
place elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line from 09n83w
to 14n95w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 08n to 14n between 98w and 120w, from 06n to 09n
between 120w and 127w and from 08n to 12n between 130w and 137w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters W of Baja
California peninsula producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N
winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas are
forecast to increase a foot or so by the end of the forecast
period as mixed swell generated by Tropical Storm Tara arrive.

Gulf of tehuantepec: next gap wind event is forecast to start
early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed
afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building
behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the
region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to
continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period
cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the
forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed,
marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the
offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be
associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW
Caribbean into Central America during this time frame.

Remainder of the area...

A weak ridge surrounding 1019 mb high pres centered near 32n133w
dominates the northern forecast waters producing light to gentle
winds N of 20n, and gentle to moderate winds S of 20n and N of
the monsoon trough. The next cold front will approach the far NW
corner of the discussion area by this evening. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the
front. The front will reach a position from 30n139w to 27n140w on
Tue, then remain nearly stationary over the NW forecast waters
on Wed while weakening. Long period NW swell will follow the
front building seas of 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30n134w to
22n140w on Wed.

Satellite-derived wind and altimeter data confirmed the presence
of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow from 05n to 13n between 100w
and 110w, and 05n and 10n between 110w and 125w, with an
associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell.


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