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axpz20 knhc 220252
twdep


Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 22 2019


Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


...Special features...


Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: a tight pressure gradient over
southeastern Mexico is bringing minimal gale force late in the
afternoon or in the early evening hours. Seas with these winds
are expected to build to around 12 ft. By early Fri afternoon
these winds will diminish to just below gale force ,and continue
to diminish through early on Sat as the gradient slackens. The
seas will subside to less than 8 ft at that time, but prior to
doing so, seas to around 9 ft due to a mixed northeast and
northwest swell will be located from 10n to 13n between 95w and
105w by early Fri evening. This area of seas will also subside
by early on Sat. The next gap wind gale event is possible for
early on Mon of next week.


Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 knhc/hsfep2 or
at website https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for
specific marine details on this ongoing event.


...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...


A trough extends from a 1007 mb low located over northwest
Colombia to the coast at 07n77w and continues to 06n85w and to
04n90w, where scatterometer data from Thu afternoon indicated
that it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 01n100w to
02n114w to 04n130w and to beyond the area at 04n140w. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 12 nm north of the ITCZ
between 90w and 96w, and also within 30 nm of 04n101w and 30 nm
of 06n125w.


...Discussion...


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...


Please read the special features section for more details about
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.


Gulf of california: fairly quiet conditions will continue
through the upcoming weekend, with seas in the 1-3 ft range.


A tight pressure gradient between high pressure ridging, that
extends eastward from a high center well west these waters, and a
cold front that stretches from northwestern Mexico to across
Baja California sur to the offshore waters near 22n115w and
beyond is resulting in fresh to locally strong winds along and
within 120 nm to the west of the Baja California peninsula with
seas to 9 ft in a northwest swell. Ship with call sign "3eus"
recently reported northwest winds of 25 kt at a location of
24n112w. These winds will increase to mainly strong speeds later
tonight and continue through early Fri afternoon, before
diminishing to mainly fresh winds through the upcoming weekend.
Seas will build to 11 ft on Sat with these winds. By early sun,
northwest to north winds west of Baja California are expected to
be mainly in the moderate to fresh range along with seas of 8-11
ft due to a set of new northwest swell that will propagate
through the northeast part of the area.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and
within 750 nm of Ecuador...


Gulf of papagayo: the winds will pulse to strong speeds
beginning late tonight and into the early morning hours assisted
by nocturnal drainage off the land. These winds are forecast
to continue into the afternoon hours through the upcoming
weekend. Guidance indicates that these winds may reach to near
gale force early Fri afternoon and again late Fri night and into
early on Sat, with seas of 8-10 ft.


Gulf of panama: fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong,
occasionally at night, in the Gulf of Panama through Sat night
and into early on Sun afternoon. Peak wave heights are expected
to reach 8 or 9 ft with these winds.


Between Ecuador and the galapagos islands, 4-5 ft seas in mixed
swell will build to the range of 5-7 ft during the upcoming
weekend with the arrival of both long period southwest and
northwest swell. Light to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas will
remain elsewhere through the upcoming weekend.


Remainder of the area...


Long-period northwest swell associated with a dissipating cold
front that extends from far southern Baja California
southwestward to 22n115w to 19n121w, where it becomes a
dissipating stationary front to 19n130w and to near 18n139w is
producing seas in the range of 8-10 ft over the waters between a
line from 17n110w to 04n118w to the Equator at 128w and to
01n104w and another line from 30n130w to 21n140w. An area of
northeast 20-25 kt winds exists from 08n to 13n between 121w and
135w along with seas of 9-10 ft. This area of winds will
gradually shift to the far western part of the area through Fri
while decreasing in size as the high pressure over the northern
and central waters weakens, but is expected to briefly
materialize Sat or Sat night then diminish in sun as the
gradient slackens due another front that is expected to move
across the northwest waters.


The aforementioned swell will slowly subside through Fri, but
lingering swell will be replaced by a new set of northwest swell
that will begin to propagate into the far northwest corner of
the area tonight in association with a new cold front. Seas
associated with this new set of swell will peak to near 15 ft
over the northwest waters on Fri night. As stated above, another
cold front is depicted by the global models to move over the far
northwest part of the area early on sun, ushering in yet another
set of large northwest swell through northwest waters.


$$
Aguirre


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