000
axpz20 knhc 260841
twdep


Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 26 2019


Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.


Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


...Special features...


Tropical Depression One-E centered near 15.5n 108.3w at 26/0900
UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. T.D. One-E is expected to become a minimal tropical storm as
it moves WNW of the coast of Mexico, then diminish thereafter as
it continues to the revillagigedo islands. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcmep1/wtpz21 knhc for more details.


...Tropical waves...


A tropical wave has an axis extending along 86w N of 05n into
Nicaragua, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is well west of the wave axis.


A tropical wave has an axis along 127w from 03n to 13n, moving
westward around 15 kt. Despite being in an area of deep layer
moisture, no significant convection is evident near the wave.
Scattered convection is west of the wave along the ITCZ axis.


...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...


The monsoon trough axis extends from 08n78w to 10n86w to 08n94w
to 14n103w then resumes SW of T.D. One-E near 11n110w to 08n117w
to 09n123w. The ITCZ is from 10n128w to beyond 09n140w.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11n to 16n
between 91w and 95w. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08n to 12n between 98w and 107w, and within 90 nm of the ITCZ
axis west of 131w.


...Discussion...


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...


See the special features section above for details regarding TD
one-E.


A ridge axis extends southeast from high pressure centered NW of
the area near 34n140w to near the revillagigedo islands. The
pressure gradient on the east side of this ridge is supporting
moderate NW winds over offshore waters west of Baja California
sur. Altimeter data shows wave heights in the range of 4 to 6 ft
for the offshore waters of Mexico. Aside from the impact of TD
one-E in the waters of southern Mexico, strong gap winds are
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Sat night,
possibly peaking at minimal gale force Thu night and early Fri.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and
within 750 nm of Ecuador...


Gentle to moderate winds will continue for most areas, although
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will impact the
papagayo region through Sat. A plume of gap winds could extend W
from the Gulf of papagayo to 100w by Fri evening. Seas within
the plume are expected to range between 8 and 10 ft. Combined
seas are mainly comprised of long period cross-equatorial S-SW
swell. Altimeter data indicates wave heights are between 5 and 7
ft adjacent to Central America and along the coasts of Colombia
and Ecuador. The long period swell will maintain combined seas
near these heights in these areas for several more days.


Remainder of the area...


South of the high near 34n140w the pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure in the tropics is generating moderate
northeast to east trades north of the ITCZ to about 20n and west
of about 120w. Little change in the position of the high or the
strength of trades is expected for several days. Wave heights in
this area will generally run between 5 and 7 ft.


Farther south, long-period cross-equatorial swell is maintaining
wave heights around 8 ft south of 02n and west of 113w. As the
swell energy continues to decay, the area of 8 ft seas will
gradually shrink in coverage through Thu. A new set of southern
hemisphere swell will cause seas south of 05n between 105w and
125w to build to between 7 and 9 ft by sun evening.


$$
Mundell


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