000
axpz20 knhc 292147
twdep


Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC sun Apr 29 2018


Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.


Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.


...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...


A surface trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of
Costa Rica at 09n84w to 07n96w where scatterometer winds
indicate that an ITCZ develops and continues west-northwest to
07n113w, then turns west to beyond 06n140w. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted within an area bounded
by a line from 03n78w to 04n140w to 10n140w to 15n102w to 03n78w.


...Discussion...


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...


A northwest to Southeast Ridge currently just seaward of 250 nm
will shift east to a position from 22.5n116w to 16n103w on Mon
where it will meander through at the least the middle of the
week. Fresh northwest flow currently observed across the open
waters N of 26n west of the Baja Peninsula, will diminish to a
moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze on Mon, and further
diminish to moderate northerly breeze by mid week with the
associated seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Wed.


Gulf of california: light to gentle southerly winds forecast
are expected to increase to a strong to near gale force
southwest breeze along 30n on Mon evening, and then continue
through early Wed, with seas building to a maximum of 8 ft near
30.5n113w.


Gulf of tehuantepec: the next strong event may begin late Sat.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and
within 750 nm of Ecuador...


Gulf of papagayo: moderate to locally fresh northeast nocturnal
winds are expected though tonight, with fresh to locally strong
nocturnal drainage flow then forecast on Mon and Tue nights.


Gulf of panama: gentle to moderate nocturnal flow is forecast for
the next several nights.


Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through Mon,
accompanied by 3 to 6 ft seas.


Remainder of the area...


a ridge extends from 32n138w to 13n102w. Fresh trades, and 6 to
8 ft seas will continue between the ridge and the ITCZ through
Thu.


$$
Nelson


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