000
axpz20 knhc 170310
twdep


Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 17 2018


Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.


...Special feature...


Hurricane Lane centered near 10.6n 128.6w at 0300 UTC, or 1550
nm ESE of Hilo Hawaii, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 150 nm of the center. Lane is expected to intensify, and
move W of 140w into the central Pacific Sat night. See latest
NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcpep4/wtpz34
knhc for more details.


...Tropical waves...


A tropical wave extends north of 07n along 91w, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of
this wave.


A tropical wave extends from 07n to 19n along 112w, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 09n to 11.5n between 111w and 116w.


...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...


The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 08n78w to 08n896w
to 10n120w. No ITCZ axis is noted E of 140w. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04n to 12n between 92w and 106w.


...Discussion...


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...


Weak surface ridging is west of the offshore waters area. A weak
surface trough associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone
John lingers across the waters west of Punta eugenio. NW winds
should remain gentle to moderate through Fri night, then freshen
slightly this weekend as the ridge strengthens.


No major gap wind events expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
although nocturnal northerly drainage flow to around 20 kt is
expected there each night. These fresh winds combined with long
period southerly swell will support seas to 7 ft through Sat.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and
within 750 nm of Ecuador...


The monsoon trough should meander near 10n during the next few
days. Easterly winds N of the trough will be moderate or weaker,
while southwesterly winds S of the trough will also be moderate
or weaker. The only exception will be offshore of the Gulf of
papagayo, where winds can pulse to moderate to fresh each night.


Long-period SW cross-equatorial swell impacting Central America
and offshore zones is producing seas of 5 to 7 ft. Swell will
gradually diminish during the next several days.


Remainder of the area...


Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Lane.


A surface trough in the far W central waters has moved W of 140w
and no associated deep convection is present. An area of fresh
winds and seas to 8 ft are also moving west of the area.


Otherwise, ridging will continue to extend from NW to se across
the waters N of the convergence zone for the next several days.
Moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell will prevail.


$$
Mundell


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